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Two-point Le Cam lower bound for squared-error risk

Statement

Let an experiment have parameter set {0,1}, sample space (X,A), and laws P0,P1. Let the scalar targets satisfy t0<t1 and put Δ=t1−t0>0. An arbitrary randomized estimator is a probability kernel K from X to R with its Borel sigma-algebra, and its loss at parameter j is squared error (a−tj)2. For every such K, max⁡j∈{0,1}Rj(K)≥Δ28(1−∥P0−P1∥TV), where ∥P0−P1∥TV=sup⁡A∈A∣P0(A)−P1(A)∣. Consequently the minimax risk over all randomized estimators obeys the same lower bound.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite-parameter statistical experiment with laws P0,P1, targets t0<t1, and an arbitrary randomized estimator kernel K.

[F1]

Statistical experiments and Parameter-measurable statistical models as kernels: the parameter set {0,1} has its power-set sigma-algebra and its model assigns the sample law Pj to parameter j.

[F2]

Randomized procedures as probability kernels: for every measurable action event B⊆R, x↦K(x,B) is measurable and is a probability measure in B for fixed x.

[F3]

Loss functions and risk: for a nonnegative jointly measurable loss L(j,a), the risk is Rj(K)=∫X∫RL(j,a)K(x,da)Pj(dx), with an extended nonnegative value allowed.

[F4]

Total variation distance for probability laws: with the event-supremum convention, ∥P0−P1∥TV=sup⁡A∈A∣P0(A)−P1(A)∣.

[F5]

Bayes risk and minimax risk: the maximum risk of a procedure is max⁡j∈{0,1}Rj(K) and minimax risk is the infimum of this maximum over all procedures.

Proof

1.1F1F2F3givenalgebra

Put c=(t0+t1)/2 and define the randomized test ϕ(x)=K(x,[c,∞)). It is measurable and lies in [0,1] by [F2]. Under parameter 0, every action in [c,∞) has squared error at least Δ2/4; under parameter 1, every action in (−∞,c) has squared error at least Δ2/4. Hence R0(K)+R1(K)≥Δ24(∫ϕ dP0+∫(1−ϕ) dP1).

2.1F4F5step 1.1algebra∎

For each integer N≥1, let ϕN=N−1∑r=1N1{ϕ≥r/N}. Then 0≤ϕ−ϕN≤1/N. By [F4], each event term satisfies P0(ϕ≥r/N)−P1(ϕ≥r/N)≥−∥P0−P1∥TV, so ∫ϕNdP0−∫ϕNdP1≥−∥P0−P1∥TV. The two integral errors from replacing ϕ by ϕN have total absolute value at most 2/N; letting N→∞ gives ∫ϕ dP0+∫(1−ϕ) dP1≥1−∥P0−P1∥TV. Combining with step 1.1 and using max⁡(R0,R1)≥(R0+R1)/2 proves the risk bound. Taking the infimum over K and applying [F5] proves the minimax assertion.

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