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ExampleConstruction: AI-generatedVerification: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)verified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)
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An improper counting prior can have finite evidence at one datum

Example

Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let X=R with its usual real Banach norm, and let N={0,1,2,…} with its power-set sigma-algebra and counting measure μ. Let U=D=N⊆X and take the forward map F(n)=n into data space R with its usual metric and Borel sigma-algebra. The measure μ is sigma-finite and has μ(N)=+∞. For parameter n, use the proper Gaussian observation law Y∣n∼N(n,1), with Lebesgue density

Ly(n)=12πexp⁡ ⁣(−(y−n)22).

At datum y=0 its evidence is

Z(0)=12π∑n=0∞e−n2/2∈(0,∞),

and the normalized fiberwise update is the probability

Π0({n})=e−n2/2∑j=0∞e−j2/2(n∈N).

Because μ has infinite total mass, this is a fixed-data update only and does not define a prior-predictive probability.

Example references

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The counting measure on N, the Gaussian sampling likelihood Ly(n), the fixed datum y=0, and AC for the repository's standard-normal definition.

[A1]

AC selects from every family of nonempty sets. The Axiom of Choice

[F1]

Counting measure assigns finite sets their cardinality and infinite sets measure +∞. Counting measure on an arbitrary set

[F2]

The counting set function is a measure on the power-set sigma-algebra. Counting measure is a measure

[F3]

Sigma-finiteness means a countable measurable cover by sets of finite measure. Finite, sigma-finite, and semifinite measures

[F4]

Under AC, N(m,1) is the affine image of the standard normal law and has Lebesgue density 12πe−(y−m)2/2. Standard normal and normal laws, A positive-variance normal law has its location-scale density

[F5]

AC implies countable choice. AC implies DC implies countable choice

[F6]

On N with counting measure, ∫f dμ=∑n=0∞f(n) for nonnegative measurable f. Counting-measure integration is a nonnegative series

[F9]

For a sigma-finite measure and measurable likelihood section, evidence is the fixed-data normalizer; for an improper prior it does not define a prior-predictive probability or conditional law. Evidence normalizer and fiberwise posterior update

[F10]

A finite positive evidence normalizes the likelihood section to a probability measure. Fiberwise posterior propriety is equivalent to finite positive evidence

[F11]

A proper Bayesian model requires a probability prior; an infinite counting measure is not such a prior. Bayesian model as a prior and sampling kernel

[F12]

The function-space propriety theorem assumes a Borel probability on a separable real Banach parameter space, so it does not apply to this infinite counting measure on N. Function-space posterior propriety from a common lower envelope

[F13]

A probability kernel has probability sections at every parameter and measurable evaluations. Measure kernel and probability kernel

[F14]

A forward map is defined on a nonempty admissible truth set between metric parameter and data spaces. Inverse-problem models and solution classes

[F15]

A function on (N,P(N)) is measurable because every preimage is a subset of N. A measurable function between measurable spaces

[F16]

N is countably infinite by its identity bijection, and no finite set is equinumerous with N. Finite, countably infinite, countable, uncountable, The pigeonhole principle on N

Verification

Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the Statement.

1.1F1F2F3F16givenconstruct

For each m∈N, the initial set Em={0,1,…,m} has counting measure m+1<∞ by [F1] and [F2], and ⋃mEm=N. Thus μ is sigma-finite by [F3]. By [F16], N is infinite, so [F1] gives μ(N)=+∞.

1.2F4F6F8F15givenalgebra

The counting-integral formula [F6] gives Z(0)=∫Ne−n2/22π μ(dn)=12π∑n=0∞e−n2/2. Its n=0 term is 1/2π>0 by [F8].

2.1A1F4F5F11F13F14F15step 1.1given

AC implies countable choice by [F5], so the normal-density interface [F4] applies: for each n, N(n,1) is a probability law with the displayed Gaussian density. Since the parameter sigma-algebra is P(N), every evaluation n↦N(n,1)(B) is measurable, and the likelihood section n↦Ly(n) is measurable by [F15]; thus the sampling family satisfies [F13]. The map F(n)=n on the nonempty admissible set U=N satisfies the forward-map interface [F14]. By [F11] this is not a proper Bayesian model with prior μ, because [step 1.1] shows the prior mass is infinite.

2.2F7F8step 1.2givenalgebra

For every n≥1, n2−n=n(n−1)≥0, since n and n−1 are nonnegative; hence n2≥n. Monotonicity of the exponential [F8] gives e−n2/2≤e−n/2. Let r=e−1/2. By [F8], 0<r<1, and [F7] makes ∑n=1∞rn finite. Comparison of nonnegative partial sums now bounds the evidence series in step 1.2 by 1+∑n=1∞rn<∞. Hence 0<Z(0)<∞.

3.1F9F10F11F12step 1.1step 1.2step 2.1step 2.2∎

Applying [F10] to L0 and the sigma-finite measure μ gives the probability with singleton masses L0(n)/Z(0)=e−n2/2/∑je−j2/2, as stated. Its fixed-data meaning and lack of a prior-predictive probability follow from [F9]; [F11] confirms that no proper Bayesian model is supplied by this prior. The function-space propriety theorem [F12] does not apply because its prior is a probability, whereas [step 1.1] gives μ(N)=+∞.

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