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LemmaStatement: AI-adaptedProof: AI-generatedPipeline-generatedverified 2026-09-23 (gpt-6-sol)
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Bounded centered convergent series have summable variances

Statement

Let (Xn)n≥1 be independent centered real random variables with ∣Xn∣≤C almost surely for one finite constant C≥0. If ∑nXn converges almost surely, then ∑nVar⁡(Xn)<∞. The bound is two-sided and uniform in n.

Facts & Assumptions

[F1]

Almost-sure convergence of a random series: For real random variables (Xn)n≥1, the series ∑n≥1Xn converges almost surely if its partial sums Sn converge to a finite real limit on an event of probability one, as in def-almost-sure-convergence-of-random-variables. With S0=0 from def-partial-sums-and-sample-means, its convergence event is C=⋂r≥1⋃N≥1⋂j≥i≥N{∣Sj−Si∣<1/r}. This is exactly the real Cauchy condition, with the indexing of thm-series-cauchy-criterion shifted by one. Measurable arithmetic makes every event in this countable expression measurable. For any fixed m, the union over N may be restricted to N≥m; then each difference uses only Xm+1,Xm+2,…. Thus C is in the tail sigma-algebra, without assuming independence. Under independence, cor-almost-sure-convergence-of-an-independent-series-is-a-zero-one-event gives P(C)∈{0,1}. Set S=lim⁡nSn on C and S=0 off C. The functions 1CSn converge everywhere to S, so thm-sequential-suprema-infima-limsup-liminf-and-pointwise-limits-are-measurable and thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability make S measurable. For Borel sets Bn, the event {Xn∈Bn infinitely often}=⋂m⋃n≥m{Xn∈Bn} is likewise tail measurable. Changing finitely many summands adds an eventually constant finite difference to Sn; divided by deterministic cn>0 tending to infinity that difference tends to zero, so the normalized limsup is unchanged. The sign of the unnormalized limsup need not be unchanged: the all-zero sequence has limsup zero, while changing its first term to 1 makes the limsup of partial sums equal to 1.

[F2]

Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent: Let (Fi)i∈I be an independent family of sigma-algebras on a probability space, and let J0,…,Jm−1⊆I be pairwise disjoint index sets. For each r<m, define Gr:=σ(⋃i∈JrFi). Then the sigma-algebras G0,…,Gm−1 are independent.

[F3]

For n≥1, if X0,…,Xn−1 are independent real random variables and gi:R→R are Borel measurable with each gi(Xi) integrable, then ∏i<ngi(Xi) is integrable and E[∏i<ngi(Xi)]=∏i<nE[gi(Xi)] in R (Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables).

[F4]

Variance and covariance identities for random variables: Let X,Y be square-integrable real random variables on one probability space. Then Var⁡(X)=E[X2]−E[X]2, Cov⁡(X,Y)=E[XY]−E[X]E[Y]. Moreover, covariance is symmetric and bilinear on finite linear combinations. On finite full-power-set probability spaces these formulas reduce to the published finite identities.

[F5]

Continuity from below for measures: Let (En)n∈N be an increasing sequence of measurable sets for a measure μ, so En⊆En+1. Then μ(⋃n∈NEn)=sup⁡n∈Nμ(En). No finiteness hypothesis is required.

[F6]

Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: Let X,Y be integrable real or complex random variables on one probability space. 1. For scalars a,b, E[aX+bY]=a E[X]+b E[Y]. 2. If X and Y are real-valued and X≤Y almost surely, then E[X]≤E[Y]. 3. ∣E[X]∣≤E[∣X∣].

Proof

Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.

1.1F1F5given

Put S0=0 and Sn=∑k=1nXk. Almost every convergent path is bounded. The measurable events {sup⁡n∣Sn∣≤l} for positive integers l increase to a probability-one event. Continuity from below supplies one integer l with probability δ>0. Set F0=Ω and Fn={max⁡k≤n∣Sk∣≤l}; thus P(Fn)≥δ.

2.1F2F3F4step 1.1

The past event Fn−1 and Sn−1 are independent of Xn by grouping. All moments below are finite by boundedness. Expanding and factoring the cross term and the square term gives E[Sn21Fn−1]=E[Sn−121Fn−1]+Var⁡(Xn)P(Fn−1). This also holds at n=1, where the past sum is zero.

3.1F6step 2.1algebra

On Fn−1∖Fn, the triangle inequality and ∣Xn∣≤C give ∣Sn∣≤l+C almost surely. Split the expectation in the previous identity over Fn and Fn−1∖Fn. Monotonicity yields δVar⁡(Xn)≤E[Sn21Fn]−E[Sn−121Fn−1]+(l+C)2P(Fn−1∖Fn).

4.1step 1.1step 3.1algebra∎

Sum from 1 to N. The expectation differences telescope, the exit events are disjoint, and SN2≤l2 on FN. Thus δ∑n=1NVar⁡(Xn)≤l2+(l+C)2 for every N. The increasing nonnegative partial sums are bounded, so their series is finite. No division by C or a variance is used, and C=0 is included.

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