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Bounded centered convergent series have summable variances
Statement
Let be independent centered real random variables with almost surely for one finite constant . If converges almost surely, then . The bound is two-sided and uniform in .
Facts & Assumptions
Almost-sure convergence of a random series: For real random variables , the series converges almost surely if its partial sums converge to a finite real limit on an event of probability one, as in def-almost-sure-convergence-of-random-variables. With from def-partial-sums-and-sample-means, its convergence event is This is exactly the real Cauchy condition, with the indexing of thm-series-cauchy-criterion shifted by one. Measurable arithmetic makes every event in this countable expression measurable. For any fixed , the union over may be restricted to ; then each difference uses only . Thus is in the tail sigma-algebra, without assuming independence. Under independence, cor-almost-sure-convergence-of-an-independent-series-is-a-zero-one-event gives . Set on and off . The functions converge everywhere to , so thm-sequential-suprema-infima-limsup-liminf-and-pointwise-limits-are-measurable and thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability make measurable. For Borel sets , the event is likewise tail measurable. Changing finitely many summands adds an eventually constant finite difference to ; divided by deterministic tending to infinity that difference tends to zero, so the normalized limsup is unchanged. The sign of the unnormalized limsup need not be unchanged: the all-zero sequence has limsup zero, while changing its first term to makes the limsup of partial sums equal to .
Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent: Let be an independent family of sigma-algebras on a probability space, and let be pairwise disjoint index sets. For each , define Then the sigma-algebras are independent.
For , if are independent real random variables and are Borel measurable with each integrable, then is integrable and in (Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables).
Variance and covariance identities for random variables: Let be square-integrable real random variables on one probability space. Then Moreover, covariance is symmetric and bilinear on finite linear combinations. On finite full-power-set probability spaces these formulas reduce to the published finite identities.
Continuity from below for measures: Let be an increasing sequence of measurable sets for a measure , so . Then No finiteness hypothesis is required.
Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: Let be integrable real or complex random variables on one probability space. 1. For scalars , 2. If and are real-valued and almost surely, then 3.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Put and . Almost every convergent path is bounded. The measurable events for positive integers increase to a probability-one event. Continuity from below supplies one integer with probability . Set and ; thus .
The past event and are independent of by grouping. All moments below are finite by boundedness. Expanding and factoring the cross term and the square term gives . This also holds at , where the past sum is zero.
On , the triangle inequality and give almost surely. Split the expectation in the previous identity over and . Monotonicity yields .
Sum from to . The expectation differences telescope, the exit events are disjoint, and on . Thus for every . The increasing nonnegative partial sums are bounded, so their series is finite. No division by or a variance is used, and is included.
Depends on
- Almost-sure convergence of a random series
- Partial sums, row sums and sample means
- Independent random elements
- Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent
- Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables
- Variance and covariance identities for random variables
- Continuity from below for measures
- Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation
Used by
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Sources
- Lemma 3.13 and complete proof, pp. 67–68 (standard reference, not scraped)