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Weak Laws and Series of Independent Random Variables
1 · Prerequisites
- Absolute and Conditional Convergence; Rearrangement; Products
- Binary Operations, Monoids, Groups and Subgroups
- Compactness in Metric Spaces
- Completeness, Completion, and Uniform Continuity
- Construction of the Natural Numbers
- Construction of the Real Numbers via Cauchy Sequences
- Construction of the Real Numbers via Dedekind Cuts
- Continuity, IVT, EVT, and Uniform Continuity
- Cosets, Index and Lagrange's Theorem
- Countability and Uncountability
- Divisibility, Euclidean Domains, Principal Ideal Domains and Unique Factorisation
- Finite Counting, Factorials and Binomial Coefficients
- Finite Probability Spaces and Random Variables
- Foundations of the Real Numbers for Analysis
- Ideals, Quotient Rings and the Isomorphism Theorems for Rings
- Independence Borel Cantelli and Zero One Laws
- Limits of Real Functions
- limsup, liminf, and Subsequential Limits
- Linear Transformations, Rank-Nullity and Quotient Spaces
- Measurable Functions and Simple Approximation
- Measures and Their Basic Properties
- Metric Spaces
- Modes of Convergence Egorov and Lusin
- Modes of Convergence for Random Variables
- Monotone Functions, Discontinuities, and Continuity Sets
- Monotone Sequences, Bolzano-Weierstrass, and Cauchy Completeness
- Normal Subgroups and Quotient Groups
- Order, Zorn's Lemma, and the Axiom of Choice
- Polynomial Rings, the Division Algorithm and Roots
- Power Series and Real-Analytic Functions
- Probability Spaces Random Variables and Expectation
- Product Measures and the Fubini Tonelli Theorems
- Properties of the Integral and the Working FTC
- Relations, Functions, and Quotients
- Rings, Subrings, Integral Domains and Fields
- Rⁿ as a Normed Space; Vector-Valued Functions
- Roots, Rational Powers, and Classical Inequalities
- Sequences and Limits
- Sequences and Series of Functions; Uniform Convergence
- Series: Convergence and the Nonnegative Tests
- Sigma Algebras and Borel Sets
- Simple Field Extensions and the Construction of the Complex Numbers
- Suprema and Infima
- The Derivative and the Mean Value Theorems
- The Exponential Function
- The Lebesgue Integral and the Convergence Theorems
- The Logarithm and General Powers
- The Lᵖ Spaces Holder Minkowski and Riesz Fischer
- The Riemann Integral: Definition and Integrability
- The ZFC Axioms and the Basic Set Constructions
- Topological Spaces and Continuity
- Topology of ℝ
- Triangularisation, Generalised Eigenspaces and Jordan Canonical Form
- Vector Spaces, Linear Subspaces, Span and Direct Sums
2 · Summary
Weak laws arise first from variance control and then from truncating large summands. For independent series, first-crossing inequalities turn tail control into almost-sure convergence; symmetrization gives the necessity half of the three-series theorem. Kronecker summation connects convergent random series to normalized strong laws. The final results characterize deterministic weak-law centering and show that probability and almost-sure convergence agree for independent partial sums.
All variables are finite real measurable functions. Sums start at one with an empty initial sum of zero, truncation retains equality at its positive cutoff, and all almost-sure conclusions use one measurable probability-one event.
3 · Logical flowchart
4 · Definitions, theorems and proofs
Identical distribution and IID families
Definition
Let be random elements with the same measurable target . They are identically distributed if for all and , that is, their laws in Law or distribution of a random element agree. They are independent and identically distributed (IID) if, in addition, the whole family is independent in Independent random elements. Independence means mutual independence, not merely pairwise independence. No moment assumption is part of either definition. The empty family satisfies these universal conditions vacuously.
Partial sums, row sums and sample means
Definition
For real random variables on one probability space, define For a triangular array with finite row length , write . An empty row has sum zero. These are finite sums in Finite sums and finite products, by recursion, with its index shifted by one. Each sum and each sample mean is a real random variable by Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined and Random elements and real random variables. No independence, common law, or integrability is implicit.
IID finite-variance weak law
Statement
Let be IID square-integrable real random variables, with and . For , and in and in probability. Also for .
Facts & Assumptions
Identical distribution and IID families: Let be random elements with the same measurable target . They are identically distributed if for all and , that is, their laws in def-law-or-distribution-of-a-random-element agree. They are independent and identically distributed (IID) if, in addition, the whole family is independent in def-independent-random-elements. Independence means mutual independence, not merely pairwise independence. No moment assumption is part of either definition. The empty family satisfies these universal conditions vacuously.
Chebyshev weak law for uncorrelated arrays: For each , let be square-integrable real random variables on one probability space, pairwise uncorrelated within the row, where is finite. Set and let be deterministic. If then in and in probability. More precisely, its second moment is , and its probability of absolute value at least is at most . No independence between rows is required.
Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables: Let , let be independent real random variables on a common probability space, and let be Borel measurable for each . 1. If every is nonnegative, then in . 2. If every is integrable, then is integrable and the same factorization holds in .
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
IID gives common mean and variance. For distinct indices, factorization of the integrable variables gives , hence zero covariance. Thus the first variables form an uncorrelated row.
Apply the row result with and . Its variance sum is , so it gives the displayed identity, both convergences, and the probability bound. This calculation holds for and for .
Zero truncation at a positive level
Definition
For a real random variable and a deterministic level , its zero truncation is The threshold event is measurable because is measurable and is Borel; its indicator and the product are measurable by Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined. Thus is a real random variable as in Random elements and real random variables. It equals at both cutoff endpoints and is zero outside the interval. Since , for every its absolute th moment is at most . This is not clipping to the endpoints.
Khinchin weak law for integrable IID variables
Statement
If are IID real random variables and , then, with and , Consequently in probability.
Facts & Assumptions
Zero truncation at a positive level: For a real random variable and a deterministic level , its zero truncation is The threshold event is measurable because is measurable and is Borel; its indicator and the product are measurable by thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability. Thus is a real random variable as in def-random-element-and-real-random-variable. It equals at both cutoff endpoints and is zero outside the interval. Since , for every its absolute th moment is at most . This is not clipping to the endpoints.
IID finite-variance weak law: Let be IID square-integrable real random variables, with and . For , and in and in probability. Also for .
Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: Let be an independent family of random elements . For each , let be measurable. Then the family is independent.
Dominated convergence: Let and be measurable complex-valued functions such that almost everywhere and almost everywhere for a single nonnegative measurable function with . Then , and hence
Markov's inequality for random variables: If is a nonnegative random variable on a probability space and , then
Finite-measure includes into for : Let be a measure space with . 1. If and , then and 2. If and , then and
Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: Let be integrable real or complex random variables on one probability space. 1. For scalars , 2. If and are real-valued and almost surely, then 3.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Fix and set , . The are bounded IID variables: measurable transformations preserve independence and their laws remain equal by inverse images. The finite-variance result gives .
On a probability space the norm is at most the norm. Finite linearity, the triangle inequality and the modulus bound give . Therefore .
For each fixed let in this bound. Then let run through positive integers tending to infinity. The residual is dominated by the integrable and tends pointwise to zero, so dominated convergence makes the remaining bound tend to zero. Finally Markov applied to proves convergence in probability. No division by a moment occurs, so constant or zero variables are included.
Almost-sure convergence of a random series
Definition
For real random variables , the series converges almost surely if its partial sums converge to a finite real limit on an event of probability one, as in Almost-sure convergence of real random variables. With from Partial sums, row sums and sample means, its convergence event is This is exactly the real Cauchy condition, with the indexing of A series converges iff for every there is with for all shifted by one. Measurable arithmetic makes every event in this countable expression measurable. For any fixed , the union over may be restricted to ; then each difference uses only . Thus is in the tail sigma-algebra, without assuming independence. Under independence, Almost-sure convergence of an independent series is a zero-one event gives .
Set on and off . The functions converge everywhere to , so Sequential suprema, infima, limsup, liminf, and pointwise limits of measurable functions are measurable and Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined make measurable.
For Borel sets , the event is likewise tail measurable. Changing finitely many summands adds an eventually constant finite difference to ; divided by deterministic tending to infinity that difference tends to zero, so the normalized limsup is unchanged. The sign of the unnormalized limsup need not be unchanged: the all-zero sequence has limsup zero, while changing its first term to makes the limsup of partial sums equal to .
Kolmogorov maximal inequality
Statement
Let be independent centered square-integrable real random variables, , and . For every , Thus controlling the whole finite maximum costs no larger bound than controlling the final sum by Chebyshev.
Facts & Assumptions
Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent: Let be an independent family of sigma-algebras on a probability space, and let be pairwise disjoint index sets. For each , define Then the sigma-algebras are independent.
Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables: Let , let be independent real random variables on a common probability space, and let be Borel measurable for each . 1. If every is nonnegative, then in . 2. If every is integrable, then is integrable and the same factorization holds in .
Variance and covariance identities for random variables: Let be square-integrable real random variables on one probability space. Then Moreover, covariance is symmetric and bilinear on finite linear combinations. On finite full-power-set probability spaces these formulas reduce to the published finite identities.
Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined: Let be a measurable space and let be measurable. Then: 1. is measurable for every real scalar ; 2. , , , , and are measurable; 3. if is pointwise defined, then is measurable; 4. with the convention of rem-zero-times-infinity-convention-for-pointwise-products, the pointwise product is measurable.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Let . These measurable events are disjoint, and their union is the event in the statement. Measurability follows by finite arithmetic.
Grouping shows that and are independent. Both are integrable (their squares have finite expectation), and the latter has mean zero. Factorization therefore gives . For the tail is zero and the identity still holds.
Expand the square on : . Sum over the disjoint events. Centering gives , and covariance bilinearity with factorization cancels every off-diagonal covariance. This proves the bound even when the variance is zero or .
Kolmogorov convergence criterion
Statement
For independent centered square-integrable real random variables , if , then converges almost surely and in to the same finite real random variable.
Facts & Assumptions
Kolmogorov maximal inequality: Let be independent centered square-integrable real random variables, , and . For every , Thus controlling the whole finite maximum costs no larger bound than controlling the final sum by Chebyshev.
Almost-sure convergence of a random series: For real random variables , the series converges almost surely if its partial sums converge to a finite real limit on an event of probability one, as in def-almost-sure-convergence-of-random-variables. With from def-partial-sums-and-sample-means, its convergence event is This is exactly the real Cauchy condition, with the indexing of thm-series-cauchy-criterion shifted by one. Measurable arithmetic makes every event in this countable expression measurable. For any fixed , the union over may be restricted to ; then each difference uses only . Thus is in the tail sigma-algebra, without assuming independence. Under independence, cor-almost-sure-convergence-of-an-independent-series-is-a-zero-one-event gives . Set on and off . The functions converge everywhere to , so thm-sequential-suprema-infima-limsup-liminf-and-pointwise-limits-are-measurable and thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability make measurable. For Borel sets , the event is likewise tail measurable. Changing finitely many summands adds an eventually constant finite difference to ; divided by deterministic tending to infinity that difference tends to zero, so the normalized limsup is unchanged. The sign of the unnormalized limsup need not be unchanged: the all-zero sequence has limsup zero, while changing its first term to makes the limsup of partial sums equal to .
A series converges iff for every there is with for all : Let be a sequence of reals, with partial sums (def-series). Then converges if and only if The block is the finite sum of def-finite-sum, and it equals . This is the Cauchy criterion transported from sequences to series. Its value is that it decides convergence without producing, or even naming, the sum.
Continuity from below for measures: Let be an increasing sequence of measurable sets for a measure , so . Then No finiteness hypothesis is required.
Continuity from above when one set has finite measure: Let be a decreasing sequence of measurable sets for a measure . If for some , then
Variance and covariance identities for random variables: Let be square-integrable real random variables on one probability space. Then Moreover, covariance is symmetric and bilinear on finite linear combinations. On finite full-power-set probability spaces these formulas reduce to the published finite identities.
Riesz-Fischer completeness of for : Let be a measure space and let . Then , with the norm of thm-the-l-p-norm-descends-to-the-quotient-and-makes-l-p-a-normed-space, is complete. Equivalently, the metric induced by that norm is a complete metric in the sense of def-complete-metric-space. Moreover, if a sequence in converges in norm, then some subsequence admits measurable representatives converging almost everywhere in the sense of def-convergence-almost-everywhere-relative-to-a-measure.
convergence implies convergence in probability: Let . If in , then in probability.
Almost-sure convergence implies convergence in probability: If almost surely, then in probability.
Limits in probability are unique almost surely: If and in probability, then almost surely.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Write , , and . Applying the maximal inequality to each block and then continuity from below gives for . The strict supremum event is the increasing union of finite strict maximum events, each bounded by the corresponding non-strict estimate.
For , the same variance expansion used in the maximal inequality gives . Hence the classes of are Cauchy in ; completeness gives an limit class with a finite measurable representative . Set . This is a finite measurable real variable, and pointwise, so in even if completeness was formulated over complex scalars.
Let . Its strict level events are countable unions of measurable events and decrease with . Since , continuity from above gives for every integer . Outside the union of these null events, for each some has ; this is the real Cauchy condition. Completeness supplies a finite limit, extended measurably by zero as in the series definition.
The convergence gives convergence in probability to , and the almost-sure convergence gives convergence in probability to the limit from the Cauchy event. Uniqueness gives almost surely. These arguments allow all variances to vanish and finite tails to be identically zero.
Kolmogorov two-series sufficiency
Statement
Let be independent square-integrable real random variables. If converges in and , then converges almost surely and in .
Facts & Assumptions
Kolmogorov convergence criterion: For independent centered square-integrable real random variables , if , then converges almost surely and in to the same finite real random variable.
Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: Let be an independent family of random elements . For each , let be measurable. Then the family is independent.
Variance and covariance identities for random variables: Let be square-integrable real random variables on one probability space. Then Moreover, covariance is symmetric and bilinear on finite linear combinations. On finite full-power-set probability spaces these formulas reduce to the published finite identities.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Set . These are independent centered square-integrable variables, and by covariance bilinearity. The convergence criterion supplies an almost-sure and limit for their series.
Let . The identity gives pointwise convergence to on the same event. Its error is at most the centered error plus , which tends to zero. This includes zero variances and conditionally convergent deterministic means.
Symmetric real random variables
Definition
A real random variable is symmetric if its law as defined in Law or distribution of a random element equals the law of . Equivalently, for every Borel , where . No existence of an expectation is assumed in this definition. In particular atoms, including an atom at zero, are allowed.
Independent-copy symmetrization of random series
Statement
Given an independent sequence on , form the product probability space . Write , , and . Then and are independent copies of the whole sequence, and the are independent symmetric real random variables. Almost-sure convergence of implies almost-sure convergence of . If almost surely for every , with , then almost surely, , and .
Facts & Assumptions
Independent random elements: Let be random elements on a common probability space. For each , write The family is independent when the sigma-algebras are independent in the sense of def-independent-sigma-algebras-and-events. When is a Borel sigma-algebra, this agrees with the notation from def-sigma-algebra-generated-by-a-function.
Symmetric real random variables: A real random variable is symmetric if its law as defined in def-law-or-distribution-of-a-random-element equals the law of . Equivalently, for every Borel , where . No existence of an expectation is assumed in this definition. In particular atoms, including an atom at zero, are allowed.
Almost-sure convergence of a random series: For real random variables , the series converges almost surely if its partial sums converge to a finite real limit on an event of probability one, as in def-almost-sure-convergence-of-random-variables. With from def-partial-sums-and-sample-means, its convergence event is This is exactly the real Cauchy condition, with the indexing of thm-series-cauchy-criterion shifted by one. Measurable arithmetic makes every event in this countable expression measurable. For any fixed , the union over may be restricted to ; then each difference uses only . Thus is in the tail sigma-algebra, without assuming independence. Under independence, cor-almost-sure-convergence-of-an-independent-series-is-a-zero-one-event gives . Set on and off . The functions converge everywhere to , so thm-sequential-suprema-infima-limsup-liminf-and-pointwise-limits-are-measurable and thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability make measurable. For Borel sets , the event is likewise tail measurable. Changing finitely many summands adds an eventually constant finite difference to ; divided by deterministic tending to infinity that difference tends to zero, so the normalized limsup is unchanged. The sign of the unnormalized limsup need not be unchanged: the all-zero sequence has limsup zero, while changing its first term to makes the limsup of partial sums equal to .
For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique: Let and be sigma-finite measure spaces. Then: 1. the set function of def-product-measure-on-sigma-finite-spaces is a measure on ; 2. for measurable rectangles, 3. the measure is sigma-finite; and 4. it is the unique measure on with the rectangle formula.
Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent: Let be an independent family of sigma-algebras on a probability space, and let be pairwise disjoint index sets. For each , define Then the sigma-algebras are independent.
Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: Let be an independent family of random elements . For each , let be measurable. Then the family is independent.
Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables: Let , let be independent real random variables on a common probability space, and let be Borel measurable for each . 1. If every is nonnegative, then in . 2. If every is integrable, then is integrable and the same factorization holds in .
Variance and covariance identities for random variables: Let be square-integrable real random variables on one probability space. Then Moreover, covariance is symmetric and bilinear on finite linear combinations. On finite full-power-set probability spaces these formulas reduce to the published finite identities.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Probability measures are finite and hence sigma-finite, so the two-factor product theorem applies. Its rectangle formula gives independent coordinate sigma-algebras with the original marginals. For any finite list of restrictions on the and , the rectangle formula followed by independence of the original factors its probability into all the individual probabilities. Thus the combined family is independent.
Group each pair : distinct pair sigma-algebras are independent, so their measurable differences are independent. The pair law is the product of two equal marginal laws, invariant under exchanging coordinates (first on rectangles, then by product-measure uniqueness). Its difference therefore has the same law as its negative.
If is the original probability-one convergence event, then has probability one. On it the partial sums of are differences of two convergent real sequences, hence converge finitely. This is almost-sure series convergence.
Under the boundedness hypothesis, and , so . Factorization gives . Expanding the square gives . This includes and deterministic laws.
Bounded centered convergent series have summable variances
Statement
Let be independent centered real random variables with almost surely for one finite constant . If converges almost surely, then . The bound is two-sided and uniform in .
Facts & Assumptions
Almost-sure convergence of a random series: For real random variables , the series converges almost surely if its partial sums converge to a finite real limit on an event of probability one, as in def-almost-sure-convergence-of-random-variables. With from def-partial-sums-and-sample-means, its convergence event is This is exactly the real Cauchy condition, with the indexing of thm-series-cauchy-criterion shifted by one. Measurable arithmetic makes every event in this countable expression measurable. For any fixed , the union over may be restricted to ; then each difference uses only . Thus is in the tail sigma-algebra, without assuming independence. Under independence, cor-almost-sure-convergence-of-an-independent-series-is-a-zero-one-event gives . Set on and off . The functions converge everywhere to , so thm-sequential-suprema-infima-limsup-liminf-and-pointwise-limits-are-measurable and thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability make measurable. For Borel sets , the event is likewise tail measurable. Changing finitely many summands adds an eventually constant finite difference to ; divided by deterministic tending to infinity that difference tends to zero, so the normalized limsup is unchanged. The sign of the unnormalized limsup need not be unchanged: the all-zero sequence has limsup zero, while changing its first term to makes the limsup of partial sums equal to .
Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent: Let be an independent family of sigma-algebras on a probability space, and let be pairwise disjoint index sets. For each , define Then the sigma-algebras are independent.
Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables: Let , let be independent real random variables on a common probability space, and let be Borel measurable for each . 1. If every is nonnegative, then in . 2. If every is integrable, then is integrable and the same factorization holds in .
Variance and covariance identities for random variables: Let be square-integrable real random variables on one probability space. Then Moreover, covariance is symmetric and bilinear on finite linear combinations. On finite full-power-set probability spaces these formulas reduce to the published finite identities.
Continuity from below for measures: Let be an increasing sequence of measurable sets for a measure , so . Then No finiteness hypothesis is required.
Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: Let be integrable real or complex random variables on one probability space. 1. For scalars , 2. If and are real-valued and almost surely, then 3.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Put and . Almost every convergent path is bounded. The measurable events for positive integers increase to a probability-one event. Continuity from below supplies one integer with probability . Set and ; thus .
The past event and are independent of by grouping. All moments below are finite by boundedness. Expanding and factoring the cross term and the square term gives . This also holds at , where the past sum is zero.
On , the triangle inequality and give almost surely. Split the expectation in the previous identity over and . Monotonicity yields .
Sum from to . The expectation differences telescope, the exit events are disjoint, and on . Thus for every . The increasing nonnegative partial sums are bounded, so their series is finite. No division by or a variance is used, and is included.
Necessity of the truncated mean and variance conditions
Statement
Let independent real random variables have convergent almost surely. For every fixed , set . Then and the real numerical series converges.
Facts & Assumptions
Independent-copy symmetrization of random series: Given an independent sequence on , form the product probability space . Write , , and . Then and are independent copies of the whole sequence, and the are independent symmetric real random variables. Almost-sure convergence of implies almost-sure convergence of . If almost surely for every , with , then almost surely, , and .
Bounded centered convergent series have summable variances: Let be independent centered real random variables with almost surely for one finite constant . If converges almost surely, then . The bound is two-sided and uniform in .
Kolmogorov convergence criterion: For independent centered square-integrable real random variables , if , then converges almost surely and in to the same finite real random variable.
Zero truncation at a positive level: For a real random variable and a deterministic level , its zero truncation is The threshold event is measurable because is measurable and is Borel; its indicator and the product are measurable by thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability. Thus is a real random variable as in def-random-element-and-real-random-variable. It equals at both cutoff endpoints and is zero outside the interval. Since , for every its absolute th moment is at most . This is not clipping to the endpoints.
First Borel-Cantelli lemma for events: Let be events in a probability space. If then No independence hypothesis is needed.
Second Borel-Cantelli lemma under pairwise independence: Let be pairwise independent events with Then
Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: Let be an independent family of random elements . For each , let be measurable. Then the family is independent.
A series converges iff each of its tail series converges, and the sum splits as plus the -th tail: Let be a sequence of reals with partial sums , let , and let be the partial sums of the -th tail series (def-series). Then: 1. for every ; 2. converges if and only if its -th tail series converges, and in that case 3. hence the following are equivalent: converges; every tail series of converges; some tail series of converges. In words: convergence of a series is a property of its terms from any index on, and changing finitely many terms changes the sum but not the fact of convergence.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Convergence of partial sums implies on its probability-one event. Therefore occurs only finitely often almost surely. These events are independent, by measurable transformations. If their probability sum were infinite, the second Borel–Cantelli lemma would instead make their infinitely-often event have probability one. Hence the sum is finite.
The are independent and bounded by . By the first Borel–Cantelli lemma, eventually almost surely. Finite-change invariance, with the real-series indices shifted by one, gives almost-sure convergence of .
Symmetrize this bounded sequence on the two-factor product. The differences are independent, centered, bounded by , and their series converges almost surely. The bounded-centered lemma gives . Since , the variance sum for is finite.
The independent centered variables now satisfy the convergence criterion. On the intersection of its probability-one event with that from the truncations, subtract the two convergent partial sums: their difference is the deterministic sequence . That sequence therefore converges in . A probability-one event is nonempty, and this argument selects only one path to establish a deterministic conclusion. All truncated expectations are finite, including when .
Kolmogorov three-series theorem
Statement
Let be independent real random variables and fix . Put . Then converges almost surely if and only if all three conditions hold: The conditions hold for some if and only if they hold for every . No moment assumption is imposed on the untruncated variables.
Facts & Assumptions
Zero truncation at a positive level: For a real random variable and a deterministic level , its zero truncation is The threshold event is measurable because is measurable and is Borel; its indicator and the product are measurable by thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability. Thus is a real random variable as in def-random-element-and-real-random-variable. It equals at both cutoff endpoints and is zero outside the interval. Since , for every its absolute th moment is at most . This is not clipping to the endpoints.
Necessity of the truncated mean and variance conditions: Let independent real random variables have convergent almost surely. For every fixed , set . Then and the real numerical series converges.
Kolmogorov two-series sufficiency: Let be independent square-integrable real random variables. If converges in and , then converges almost surely and in .
First Borel-Cantelli lemma for events: Let be events in a probability space. If then No independence hypothesis is needed.
Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: Let be an independent family of random elements . For each , let be measurable. Then the family is independent.
A series converges iff each of its tail series converges, and the sum splits as plus the -th tail: Let be a sequence of reals with partial sums , let , and let be the partial sums of the -th tail series (def-series). Then: 1. for every ; 2. converges if and only if its -th tail series converges, and in that case 3. hence the following are equivalent: converges; every tail series of converges; some tail series of converges. In words: convergence of a series is a property of its terms from any index on, and changing finitely many terms changes the sum but not the fact of convergence.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
If the original series converges almost surely, the necessity lemma gives all three numerical conditions for this arbitrary fixed . In particular all truncated means and variances used here are finite.
Conversely suppose the three conditions hold. The bounded truncations are independent square-integrable variables. Two-series sufficiency makes converge almost surely. The first Borel–Cantelli lemma makes eventually almost surely; finite-change invariance then gives convergence of . This also covers zero truncations and finite exceptional sets.
Conditions at one positive cutoff give convergence by the preceding direction; convergence gives the conditions at every positive cutoff by the first direction. Conditions at every positive cutoff give them at, for example, . This is an equivalence between deterministic numerical conditions, and needs no intersection over uncountably many cutoff-dependent events.
Kronecker summation lemma
Statement
Let be real and let be deterministic, nondecreasing, and tend to infinity. If converges in , then Repeated values of are allowed.
Facts & Assumptions
Abel summation by parts: with one has for every : Let and be sequences of reals and let be the partial sums of (def-series, def-finite-sum), so that and for every . Then for every natural number Both sides are finite sums in the sense of def-finite-sum; at the right-hand sum is empty and the identity reads . The hypothesis is what makes the statement legitimate, not merely convenient: the index occurs on the right, and is a natural number exactly when . At there is nothing to state, both the left-hand side and being .
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Put and . Abel summation, shifted from its zero-based indices, gives . One can verify the same identity by substituting and telescoping; for it reads .
The weights are nonnegative and sum to one. For , take such that for . With , the weighted average differs from by at most for . The first term tends to zero; no division by is required, even if it vanishes. Repeated normalizers merely give zero weights.
As is arbitrary the weighted average tends to . Subtracting it from in the finite identity proves the assertion, including the zero sequence.
Strong law under summable normalized variances
Statement
Let be independent square-integrable real random variables. Let be deterministic and nondecreasing with . If then In particular, for IID centered square-integrable variables and any , almost surely (the displayed normalization is used for ).
Facts & Assumptions
Kolmogorov convergence criterion: For independent centered square-integrable real random variables , if , then converges almost surely and in to the same finite real random variable.
Kronecker summation lemma: Let be real and let be deterministic, nondecreasing, and tend to infinity. If converges in , then Repeated values of are allowed.
Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: Let be an independent family of random elements . For each , let be measurable. Then the family is independent.
Variance and covariance identities for random variables: Let be square-integrable real random variables on one probability space. Then Moreover, covariance is symmetric and bilinear on finite linear combinations. On finite full-power-set probability spaces these formulas reduce to the published finite identities.
The integral test: for nonincreasing on , converges if and only if the sequence is bounded, with : For nonnegative nonincreasing on , the series converges if and only if the proper integrals are bounded above as integers vary.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
The variables are independent, centered, and square-integrable, with variances . Measurable transformations give independence, and covariance bilinearity gives the variance identity. The convergence criterion makes converge on one probability-one event.
On each path in that event apply Kronecker to and the given . The deterministic conclusion is precisely the asserted normalized convergence. Zero variances and repeated positive normalizers present no exception.
For the rate assertion, set for and choose . These are positive and nondecreasing. The variance sum from is . Apply the zero-based integral test to on : it is nonnegative and decreasing, and substitution bounds its integrals by . The first variance term is finite. The result already proved therefore gives the rate, also when .
Strong law for independent nonidentical variables
Statement
For independent square-integrable real random variables , the condition implies The variables need not have a common law or a common mean.
Facts & Assumptions
Strong law under summable normalized variances: Let be independent square-integrable real random variables. Let be deterministic and nondecreasing with . If then In particular, for IID centered square-integrable variables and any , almost surely (the displayed normalization is used for ).
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Take for . This sequence is positive, increasing, and tends to infinity, and the required normalized variance series is exactly the one in the hypothesis.
The normalized-variance strong law gives almost surely. Finite linearity identifies the numerator with . This includes zero variance and deterministic variables and requires no relation between different means.
One-sided maximal inequality for symmetric independent sums
Statement
For independent symmetric real random variables , , let . For every real , Consequently for every , No moment assumptions are needed.
Facts & Assumptions
Symmetric real random variables: A real random variable is symmetric if its law as defined in def-law-or-distribution-of-a-random-element equals the law of . Equivalently, for every Borel , where . No existence of an expectation is assumed in this definition. In particular atoms, including an atom at zero, are allowed.
Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent: Let be an independent family of sigma-algebras on a probability space, and let be pairwise disjoint index sets. For each , define Then the sigma-algebras are independent.
Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: Let be an independent family of random elements . For each , let be measurable. Then the family is independent.
Independent random elements have product joint law: Let , and let for be independent random elements. Define Then is a random element of , and its law is the finite product of the marginal laws:
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Let . They partition the crossing event. The unused tail is independent of the past by grouping. Its law is symmetric: the independent marginal laws are unchanged when each remaining variable is negated, so their sum has the same law as its negative. Hence , including .
On one has . Independence gives . These events are disjoint over , so summing proves the one-sided assertion. The argument works unchanged at and at negative .
Apply that assertion to and . The event of a strict absolute crossing of is contained in the union of a positive and a negative crossing. Their final events and are disjoint for , giving the displayed two-sided bound. Atoms at thresholds do not enter the strict events.
Tail comparisons under independent-copy symmetrization
Statement
Let be an independent copy of a real random variable . For every , There exists a finite with ; for every such ,
Facts & Assumptions
Independent-copy symmetrization of random series: Given an independent sequence on , form the product probability space . Write , , and . Then and are independent copies of the whole sequence, and the are independent symmetric real random variables. Almost-sure convergence of implies almost-sure convergence of . If almost surely for every , with , then almost surely, , and .
Continuity from below for measures: Let be an increasing sequence of measurable sets for a measure , so . Then No finiteness hypothesis is required.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
The triangle inequality gives . The union bound and equality of the two marginal laws give the upper estimate. Independent copies can be realized on the two-factor product described by symmetrization.
The intervals increase to as positive integers increase. Continuity from below gives , so there is a suitable finite . For any such , the event implies . Independence makes its probability , giving the lower bound. This includes when allowed by the law.
Truncation weak law for independent arrays
Statement
For each let be independent real random variables on one probability space, with finite . Let deterministic tend to infinity and set . If then No independence between rows is required.
Facts & Assumptions
Zero truncation at a positive level: For a real random variable and a deterministic level , its zero truncation is The threshold event is measurable because is measurable and is Borel; its indicator and the product are measurable by thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability. Thus is a real random variable as in def-random-element-and-real-random-variable. It equals at both cutoff endpoints and is zero outside the interval. Since , for every its absolute th moment is at most . This is not clipping to the endpoints.
Chebyshev weak law for uncorrelated arrays: For each , let be square-integrable real random variables on one probability space, pairwise uncorrelated within the row, where is finite. Set and let be deterministic. If then in and in probability. More precisely, its second moment is , and its probability of absolute value at least is at most . No independence between rows is required.
Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: Let be an independent family of random elements . For each , let be measurable. Then the family is independent.
Convergence in probability: For real random variables and on one probability space, write in probability when, for every , This is precisely def-convergence-in-measure for the probability measure.
Finite and countable subadditivity of measures: Let be a measure and let be measurable. Then For every one also has including , where both sides are .
Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables: Let , let be independent real random variables on a common probability space, and let be Borel measurable for each . 1. If every is nonnegative, then in . 2. If every is integrable, then is integrable and the same factorization holds in .
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Each truncated row is independent by measurable transformations and bounded by . Its distinct centered mixed moments vanish: independence factors expectations of bounded products, so the row is uncorrelated. The row weak law therefore makes tend to zero in probability.
Let . Outside the original and truncated sums agree. Hence for the probability of the claimed error exceeding is bounded by plus the corresponding centered truncated probability. Both tend to zero. For empty rows all sums and the union are zero or empty, so the argument includes them; equality at the cutoff is retained.
Vanishing tail control bounds truncated second moments
Statement
Let be a real random variable with as positive integers . Then for real , and Moreover for every .
Facts & Assumptions
Zero truncation at a positive level: For a real random variable and a deterministic level , its zero truncation is The threshold event is measurable because is measurable and is Borel; its indicator and the product are measurable by thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability. Thus is a real random variable as in def-random-element-and-real-random-variable. It equals at both cutoff endpoints and is zero outside the interval. Since , for every its absolute th moment is at most . This is not clipping to the endpoints.
For 0 < p < infinity, the layer-cake formula computes the integral of |f|^p from the distribution function: Let be a measure space, let be measurable, and let . Then where either side may be .
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
For , put . Monotonicity of the tail gives , which tends to zero. Consequently is bounded on and tends to zero.
Apply layer cake with exponent to . Its tail is at most that of for and is zero for . Thus its second moment is at most . If for , division by bounds this by for . Let then . No moment assumption on the untruncated square was used.
For , layer cake gives . On this is at most . If , the remaining integral is at most . This also covers and bounded laws. Neither endpoint p=0 nor p=1 is asserted.
Largest-summand bound for independent symmetric variables
Statement
Let be independent symmetric real random variables, , and . For , The same bound holds when both inequalities inside the probabilities are strict. If the are IID and , then
Facts & Assumptions
Symmetric real random variables: A real random variable is symmetric if its law as defined in def-law-or-distribution-of-a-random-element equals the law of . Equivalently, for every Borel , where . No existence of an expectation is assumed in this definition. In particular atoms, including an atom at zero, are allowed.
Independent random elements have product joint law: Let , and let for be independent random elements. Define Then is a random element of , and its law is the finite product of the marginal laws:
Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined: Let be a measurable space and let be measurable. Then: 1. is measurable for every real scalar ; 2. , , , , and are measurable; 3. if is pointwise defined, then is measurable; 4. with the convention of rem-zero-times-infinity-convention-for-pointwise-products, the pointwise product is measurable.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
On let be the Borel set where is the least index attaining the largest coordinate magnitude. The sets partition the space and are invariant under flipping the sign of coordinate . The product joint law and symmetry of each marginal make that sign flip measure preserving. Ties and zero coordinates are included by the least-index rule.
Fix , and write . Since , at least one of is at least . On the two indicators of a final magnitude at least , before and after the sign flip, therefore sum to at least one. Integrate using flip invariance to obtain . The identical argument on uses strict final events and proves their version directly.
Summing over gives both bounds. Under IID, independence gives . Finally for , so . This includes , , and .
Exact tail criterion for a truncated-centered IID weak law
Statement
For IID real random variables and , there exist deterministic real constants with in probability if and only if When this condition holds, works. Neither existence of an untruncated mean nor convergence of is asserted.
Facts & Assumptions
Identical distribution and IID families: Let be random elements with the same measurable target . They are identically distributed if for all and , that is, their laws in def-law-or-distribution-of-a-random-element agree. They are independent and identically distributed (IID) if, in addition, the whole family is independent in def-independent-random-elements. Independence means mutual independence, not merely pairwise independence. No moment assumption is part of either definition. The empty family satisfies these universal conditions vacuously.
Independent-copy symmetrization of random series: Given an independent sequence on , form the product probability space . Write , , and . Then and are independent copies of the whole sequence, and the are independent symmetric real random variables. Almost-sure convergence of implies almost-sure convergence of . If almost surely for every , with , then almost surely, , and .
Tail comparisons under independent-copy symmetrization: Let be an independent copy of a real random variable . For every , There exists a finite with ; for every such ,
One-sided maximal inequality for symmetric independent sums: For independent symmetric real random variables , , let . For every real , Consequently for every , No moment assumptions are needed.
Truncation weak law for independent arrays: For each let be independent real random variables on one probability space, with finite . Let deterministic tend to infinity and set . If then No independence between rows is required.
Vanishing tail control bounds truncated second moments: Let be a real random variable with as positive integers . Then for real , and Moreover for every .
Convergence in probability: For real random variables and on one probability space, write in probability when, for every , This is precisely def-convergence-in-measure for the probability measure.
Finite and countable subadditivity of measures: Let be a measure and let be measurable. Then For every one also has including , where both sides are .
Largest-summand bound for independent symmetric variables: Let be independent symmetric real random variables, , and . For , The same bound holds when both inequalities inside the probabilities are strict. If the are IID and , then
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Assume the tail condition and take row for , with . The sum of row tail probabilities is . The normalized truncated variance sum is at most by the second-moment lemma. The truncated array law yields the claimed convergence with the explicit finite .
For necessity suppose constants give the convergence. On the two-factor product take an independent copy and let , . The are IID and symmetric. The triangle and union bounds give . The deterministic center cancels exactly.
For , the largest-summand bound gives . Since the left side tends to zero and , necessarily ; otherwise a positive lower bound along a subsequence would keep the right side away from zero.
Choose finite with . The symmetrization lower bound with gives for . Multiply by and use the previous step with . This proves necessity, including atomic or deterministic laws.
An alternative check of the maximal step uses with , whence . The symmetric maximal inequality gives . Independence then gives , hence again by . Both checks retain strict events and allow atoms.
Levy maximal bound from uniform tail bounds
Statement
Let be independent real random variables, , with . Let and . If then No centering or moment assumption is required.
Facts & Assumptions
Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent: Let be an independent family of sigma-algebras on a probability space, and let be pairwise disjoint index sets. For each , define Then the sigma-algebras are independent.
Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined: Let be a measurable space and let be measurable. Then: 1. is measurable for every real scalar ; 2. , , , , and are measurable; 3. if is pointwise defined, then is measurable; 4. with the convention of rem-zero-times-infinity-convention-for-pointwise-products, the pointwise product is measurable.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Let and . These are measurable disjoint first-crossing events. For , is independent of the remaining tail by grouping. For , , so its probability of magnitude at least is zero.
On , the triangle inequality gives . Thus . The complementary part has probability at most , using the hypothesis at . Hence , and division by the positive proves the assertion. This includes and .
Cauchy sequences in probability have a measurable limit
Statement
Let be real random variables on one probability space. Suppose that for every there is such that Then there is a finite measurable real random variable such that in probability.
Facts & Assumptions
Convergence in probability: For real random variables and on one probability space, write in probability when, for every , This is precisely def-convergence-in-measure for the probability measure.
First Borel-Cantelli lemma for events: Let be events in a probability space. If then No independence hypothesis is needed.
A series converges iff for every there is with for all : Let be a sequence of reals, with partial sums (def-series). Then converges if and only if The block is the finite sum of def-finite-sum, and it equals . This is the Cauchy criterion transported from sequences to series. Its value is that it decides convergence without producing, or even naming, the sum.
Sequential suprema, infima, limsup, liminf, and pointwise limits of measurable functions are measurable: Let be a measurable space and let be measurable for every . Then the functions are measurable. The set is measurable. In particular, if pointwise, then is measurable.
Almost-sure convergence implies convergence in probability: If almost surely, then in probability.
Finite and countable subadditivity of measures: Let be a measure and let be measurable. Then For every one also has including , where both sides are .
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Set . For each , choose recursively the least integer for which all pairs of indices at least have probability less than of separation exceeding . Such an integer exists by the hypothesis. Thus, for every , . The first Borel–Cantelli lemma gives a measurable probability-one event where these inequalities fail only finitely often.
On that event the series of absolute successive differences is finite: its finite initial part is finite because all values are real, and its remaining part is bounded by a geometric series. Therefore the subsequence is Cauchy and has a finite real limit. Its finite convergence event is measurable: intersect the measurable extended-limit event with , a countable union of countable intersections. Define to be this limit there and zero outside. The corresponding restricted sequence converges everywhere, so measurable limits give a real random variable.
This subsequence converges almost surely and hence in probability to . Fix , choose so late-pair errors at are below , and then choose with and . For all , the triangle and union bounds give . This proves convergence of the full sequence, including constant sequences.
Convergence in probability and almost surely agree for independent series
Statement
For partial sums of independent real random variables on one probability space, the following are equivalent: is Cauchy in probability; converges in probability to a finite real random variable; converges almost surely to a finite real random variable. The probability and almost-sure limits agree almost surely.
Facts & Assumptions
Levy maximal bound from uniform tail bounds: Let be independent real random variables, , with . Let and . If then No centering or moment assumption is required.
Almost-sure convergence of a random series: For real random variables , the series converges almost surely if its partial sums converge to a finite real limit on an event of probability one, as in def-almost-sure-convergence-of-random-variables. With from def-partial-sums-and-sample-means, its convergence event is This is exactly the real Cauchy condition, with the indexing of thm-series-cauchy-criterion shifted by one. Measurable arithmetic makes every event in this countable expression measurable. For any fixed , the union over may be restricted to ; then each difference uses only . Thus is in the tail sigma-algebra, without assuming independence. Under independence, cor-almost-sure-convergence-of-an-independent-series-is-a-zero-one-event gives . Set on and off . The functions converge everywhere to , so thm-sequential-suprema-infima-limsup-liminf-and-pointwise-limits-are-measurable and thm-arithmetic-and-lattice-operations-preserve-measurability make measurable. For Borel sets , the event is likewise tail measurable. Changing finitely many summands adds an eventually constant finite difference to ; divided by deterministic tending to infinity that difference tends to zero, so the normalized limsup is unchanged. The sign of the unnormalized limsup need not be unchanged: the all-zero sequence has limsup zero, while changing its first term to makes the limsup of partial sums equal to .
Convergence in probability: For real random variables and on one probability space, write in probability when, for every , This is precisely def-convergence-in-measure for the probability measure.
Continuity from below for measures: Let be an increasing sequence of measurable sets for a measure , so . Then No finiteness hypothesis is required.
Continuity from above when one set has finite measure: Let be a decreasing sequence of measurable sets for a measure . If for some , then
A series converges iff for every there is with for all : Let be a sequence of reals, with partial sums (def-series). Then converges if and only if The block is the finite sum of def-finite-sum, and it equals . This is the Cauchy criterion transported from sequences to series. Its value is that it decides convergence without producing, or even naming, the sum.
Almost-sure convergence implies convergence in probability: If almost surely, then in probability.
Limits in probability are unique almost surely: If and in probability, then almost surely.
Cauchy sequences in probability have a measurable limit: Let be real random variables on one probability space. Suppose that for every there is such that Then there is a finite measurable real random variable such that in probability.
Proof
Given: The objects and hypotheses of the statement.
Convergence in probability implies the Cauchy condition: for , the event is contained in , whose probabilities are uniformly small for sufficiently large . Conversely the Cauchy-in-probability completeness lemma gives a measurable finite probability limit.
Assume the Cauchy condition. Fix and . For all sufficiently large and all , every tail of the finite block is an increment with both indices sufficiently large. Its probability of magnitude at least is at most : use the Cauchy condition at the strictly smaller tolerance . The tail maximal lemma gives .
Pass to the infinite strict supremum by continuity from below. Let . Since , the previous estimate bounds by for sufficiently large . These events decrease with . Continuity from above and arbitrariness of show . Take for all positive integers . Outside a single null set the partial sums are real Cauchy, hence converge finitely; their limit extended by zero is measurable as in the series definition.
Almost-sure convergence implies convergence in probability. Its probability limit and any probability limit from the first step coincide almost surely by uniqueness. Thus all three conditions are equivalent. No moment hypothesis was introduced, and zero or deterministic increments cause no exception.
5 · Examples, counterexamples and false statements
None yet.
Sources
- Section 2.2.1, p. 58, IID paragraph
- Section 2.2.2, p. 59, opening row-sum notation
- Theorems 2.2.1, 2.2.3 and 2.2.6, pp. 56–59
- Section 2.2.1, p. 58
- Theorem 3.2, pp. 55–56
- Section 2.2.3, p. 62
- Theorem 3.3, first proof, pp. 56–57
- Theorem 2.2.14, pp. 64–65
- Section 2.5, Example 2.5.2 p. 81 and series convention p. 84
- Section 3.4 opening, p. 61
- Theorem 2.5.5, p. 84
- Lemma 3.7, p. 62
- Theorem 2.5.6, pp. 84–85
- Theorem 3.10, pp. 65–66; L2 strengthening uses published completeness
- Theorem 3.11, p. 66
- Appendix A, Definition 4.16, p. 9
- Theorem 3.12 necessity, p. 67
- Appendix A, Example 4.17, p. 9
- Lemma 3.13 and complete proof, pp. 67–68
- Theorem 3.12 necessity and Lemma 3.13, pp. 67–68
- Theorem 2.5.8, p. 85
- Theorem 3.12, pp. 66–68
- Theorem 2.5.9 and full proof, pp. 85–86
- Theorems 2.5.6 and 2.5.9; proof of Theorem 2.5.11, pp. 84–87
- Theorems 2.5.6 and 2.5.9, pp. 84–86
- Section 2.2, Lemma 5.13 and proof, p. 8
- Appendix A, Lemma 4.18 and proof, pp. 9–10; symmetric-interval variant
- Theorem 2.2.11, pp. 62–63; second-moment sufficient form
- Section 2.1, Theorem 4.8 and proof, p. 4; variance form
- Theorem 2.2.12 proof with Lemma 2.2.13, pp. 63–64
- Roch Note 4, Appendix A, Lemma 4.19 and proof, p. 10
- Theorem 4.4, pp. 2–5 and Appendix A, pp. 9–11
- Theorem 2.2.12 and necessity remark, pp. 63–64
- Lemma 5.13, p. 8
- Lemma 3.8 and proof, pp. 62–63
- Varadhan, Chapter 3, Exercise 3.11, p. 65
- Theorem 3.9, implication (ii) to (iii), pp. 63–65