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Mean and variance from the cumulant function

Statement

Fix i and ϕ in Explicit exponential-family response contracts, and write a=ai(ϕ). Under its fixed-support, twice differentiable density, local integrable derivative-envelope, and finite-second-moment hypotheses,

Eθi,ϕ[Yi]=b′(θi),Var⁡θi,ϕ(Yi)=a b′′(θi).

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The normalized density fi(y;θi,ϕ) on the open interval J, its fixed support, locally uniform integrable envelopes for its first two parameter derivatives, and Eθi,ϕ[Yi2]<∞.

[F1]

Explicit exponential-family response contracts: fi(y;θi,ϕ)=exp⁡{(yθi−b(θi))/a+ci(y,ϕ)} is normalized for every θi on a fixed support, with b∈C2(J) and the stated derivative envelopes.

[F2]

The mean value theorem, as the case g(x)=x of Cauchy's: for f continuous on [a,b] with a<b and differentiable on (a,b) there is c∈(a,b) with f(b)−f(a)=f′(c)(b−a): if a function is continuous on a closed interval and differentiable in its interior, an endpoint difference equals its derivative at an interior point times the interval length.

[F3]

Dominated convergence: almost-everywhere convergence under one integrable majorant permits passing the limit through the integral.

[F4]

The Lebesgue integral is linear on L1(μ): the integral is linear on integrable functions.

[F5]

Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable: the expectation of an integrable real random variable is its finite signed integral.

[F6]

Integrating against a density agrees with integrating the product: if P=f dν, then for nonnegative measurable g, ∫g dP=∫gf dν; the signed identity follows by positive and negative parts once absolute integrability is verified.

[F7]

Integrable real and complex functions, and their integrals: a real measurable function is integrable exactly when the integral of its absolute value is finite.

[F8]

Monotonicity and nonnegative homogeneity of the nonnegative integral: the nonnegative integral is monotone and homogeneous for nonnegative scalars.

[F9]

Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space: for a square-integrable real random variable, variance is the expectation of its centered square.

Proof

1.1F1algebra

Differentiating the displayed density pointwise on its fixed support gives ∂θifi=fi(y−b′(θi))/a and ∂θi2fi=fi{(y−b′(θi))2/a2−b′′(θi)/a}. Off the fixed support the density vanishes outside a fixed νi-null exception for every θi, so these derivative identities hold νi-almost everywhere on the whole response space.

2.1F1F2F3F4F5F6F7F8step 1.1algebra

For any sequence of nonzero hk→0 with θi+hk∈J, the difference quotients (fi( ⋅ ;θi+hk,ϕ)−fi( ⋅ ;θi,ϕ))/hk converge pointwise almost everywhere to ∂θifi. The mean value theorem [F2] bounds their absolute values by the local first-derivative envelope, so [F3] passes the limit through the integral. Each quotient has integral (1−1)/hk=0 by normalization and [F4]; hence ∫∂θifi dνi=0. Since 2∣y∣≤1+y2, monotonicity and homogeneity [F8], normalization, linearity [F4], and the density identity [F6] give E∣Yi∣≤12(1+E[Yi2])<∞. Thus Yi is integrable by [F7], so its positive and negative parts are integrable. Applying [F6] to those two parts and subtracting by [F4] and [F5] identifies E[Yi]=∫yfi dνi. Substituting step 1.1 into ∫∂θifi dνi=0, and using normalization [F1] and linearity [F4], gives ∫yfi dνi=b′(θi).

3.1F1F2F3F4F5F6F9step 1.1step 2.1algebra∎

Apply the same sequential difference-quotient argument to ∂θifi, now using the local second-derivative envelope, to get ∫∂θi2fi dνi=0. Substituting step 1.1 gives ∫(y−b′(θi))2fi dνi=a b′′(θi). By [F6] this is E[(Yi−b′(θi))2]; by step 2.1, b′(θi)=E[Yi], so [F9] identifies the centered second moment with the variance.

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