Alphabeta Math
TheoremStatement: AI-adaptedProof: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-5.6-terra)audited 2026-09-12
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Conditional density formula

Statement

Let (E,S,μ) and (T,T,ν) be sigma-finite measure spaces. Let a joint probability λ on E×T have nonnegative product-measurable density p:E×T→[0,∞] relative to μ×ν. A fixed probability ρ on (E,S) is supplied. Put m(y)=∫Ep(x,y) μ(dx),D={y:0<m(y)<∞}, K(y,A)={∫Ap(x,y) μ(dx)m(y),y∈D,ρ(A),y∉D.

Then K is an everywhere probability kernel from T to E. If β is the second marginal of λ, then β(D)=1 and λ(A×B)=∫BK(y,A) β(dy).

For any random elements X,Y with joint law λ, K(Y,⋅) is a regular conditional distribution of X given σ(Y). These event identities require no AC. If interpreted with the library's conditional-expectation class existence convention, assume AC. Neither zero nor infinite marginal-density fibres are normalized by the displayed quotient.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the statement.

[F1]

Probability-kernel sections must have mass one at every source point and measurable evaluations. Measure kernel and probability kernel.

[F2]

Nonnegative product-measurable functions on the stated sigma-finite spaces have measurable section integrals and equal iterated integrals. Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product.

[F3]

Each nonnegative measurable section density defines a measure. The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure.

[F4]

All conditioning-event identities characterize a supplied RCD. Regular conditional distribution.

[F5]

Bounded measurable functions of Y integrate against its marginal. Change of variables for expectation.

[F6]

AC is only for the inherited conditional-class existence notation, not for the density construction with supplied rho. The Axiom of Choice.

[F7]

Integrating against a density measure equals integrating the product. Integrating against a density agrees with integrating the product.

Proof

technique · direct
1.1F2

By [F2], m is measurable and ∫Tm dν=∫p d(μ×ν)=λ(E×T)=1. For each measurable B, apply [F2] to p1E×B to obtain β(B)=∫Bm dν. Put Z={m=0} and I={m=∞}. Then β(Z)=0. Also nν(I)≤∫m dν=1 for all n≥1, so ν(I)=0; the nonnegative integral over this measurable null set is zero, even though m is infinite there, giving β(I)=0. Therefore D=T∖(Z∪I) is measurable and has full marginal mass. No finite value of m at each point follows from total integrability.

2.1step 1.1F1F2F3

For A∈S, let aA(y)=∫Ap(x,y) μ(dx). Tonelli applied to p1A×T makes aA measurable. It satisfies 0≤aA≤m everywhere. On D both are finite and the denominator is positive, so aA/m is a measurable real function there; reciprocal and multiplication are continuous on this finite positive domain. Pasting the constant ρ(A) off D proves measurable evaluations of K. For each y∈D, [F2] ensures that p(⋅,y) is measurable and [F3] makes A↦aA(y) a measure of mass m(y); dividing by this finite positive number gives a probability. Off D, K is the supplied probability ρ. This proves [F1], including the empty-event and whole-target evaluations.

3.1step 1.1step 2.1F2F7

For measurable A,B, the contribution of B∖D to the K-integral under β is zero because 0≤K≤1 and β(Dc)=0. On D the density conversion [F7] and β=m dν give ∫BK(y,A) β(dy)=∫B∩DaA(y)m(y)m(y) ν(dy)=∫B∩DaA(y) ν(dy). On Z, aA=0 since aA≤m; on I its integral is zero because I is ν-null. Thus the last integral is ∫BaA dν, which equals ∫A×Bp d(μ×ν)=λ(A×B) by [F2]. All cancellation was restricted to finite positive m.

4.1step 2.1step 3.1F4F5F6∎

If X,Y have joint law λ, [F5] applied to the bounded measurable function 1B(y)K(y,A) converts step 3.1 into ∫{Y∈B}K(Y,A) dP=P(X∈A,Y∈B). The collection of inverse images Y−1(B) is already a sigma-algebra and is exactly σ(Y). These are therefore all required conditioning events. Measurability and probability sections follow from step 2.1 under composition with Y, so [F4] proves the RCD assertion. The proof selected no points, versions or exhaustion: the sigma-finite measures, product density and filler probability are supplied. [F6] is required only when using the library conditional-class existence convention.

Depends on

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Sources