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First-step equations for nonnegative exit costs
Statement
Assume AC (The Axiom of Choice). Let be a Markov chain on an at most countable state space with transition kernel and transition matrix . Let , put , and let and be bounded. Define the boundary payoff by when and when , so no value is used. For , let with the empty sum equal to . Then where is the support-restricted nonnegative kernel action of Nonnegative kernel action and finite drift. The equation on is in extended nonnegative arithmetic and may have value .
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC, a countable-state Markov chain with kernel , , bounded nonnegative and , and .
The Axiom of Choice states that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function; it is assumed here for the canonical laws and conditional-expectation/Markov suppliers cited below. (The Axiom of Choice)
, so when the initial state is in . (Hitting, return, and visit times)
The infimum of the empty set is . (Hitting, return, and visit times)
for the transition matrix. (Transition matrices and n-step probabilities)
for nonnegative , with zero weights omitted. (Nonnegative kernel action and finite drift)
For bounded product-measurable , is measurable and almost surely. (Markov property for bounded future path functionals)
For bounded measurable , almost surely, where . (Bounded-function form of the Markov property)
When the initial state is fixed at , and ; hence almost surely under . (Initial distribution of a Markov chain)
On a countable discrete space, a measure is the sum of its singleton weights; for they are . (Every measure on a countable discrete space is its weighted sum of Dirac measures)
Increasing sequences of nonnegative measurable functions pass to the limit under the nonnegative integral. (Monotone convergence for the integral)
The nonnegative integral is additive, including when one or both integrals are infinite. (Additivity of the nonnegative Lebesgue integral)
Restricting a nonnegative measurable function to a measurable event by setting it to zero off the event preserves measurability. (Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral)
A nonnegative extended series is the supremum of its increasing finite partial sums. (Series in the nonnegative extended real line)
Pointwise increasing limits of measurable functions are measurable. (Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral)
Every nonnegative measurable function is the pointwise increasing limit of nonnegative simple functions. (Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions)
For a nonnegative simple on disjoint measurable sets, its simple integral is . (The integral of a nonnegative simple function)
For a nonnegative double sequence, the two iterated sums agree, including when their common value is . (Tonelli's theorem for double series of nonnegative extended real numbers)
For bounded real , . (Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation)
Sums of measurable extended-real functions are measurable whenever the sum is defined pointwise. (Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral)
For a nonnegative simple measurable function, its nonnegative Lebesgue integral equals its simple integral. (The nonnegative integral agrees with the simple integral on simple functions)
The nonnegative Lebesgue integral is the supremum of the simple integrals of all nonnegative simple minorants. (The nonnegative Lebesgue integral)
A nonnegative simple measurable function has finite range. (Nonnegative simple measurable functions)
For every and , , so the hitting events used here are measurable. (Hitting, return, and visit times)
Proof
On , put , extend by zero on and by zero on , and define , , and . The hitting events are measurable by [F22], the restrictions by [F9], the nonnegative series by [F10], and their sum by [F16]; thus is measurable, on by [F17], and no coordinate at infinity is evaluated.
If , then almost surely under by [F5], so by [F1], and ; hence . This includes an empty and a start already on the boundary.
If , then every path starting at has ; its shifted path exits at time when and never exits when , so in extended nonnegative arithmetic. Additivity [F8] gives without subtraction, also when the tail expectation is infinite.
For , let and ; then is measurable and bounded by by [F3], and its conditional future-path identity at time , followed by [F15], gives .
The bounded one-step identity [F4], expectation preservation [F15], and under [F5] give .
For a nonnegative simple with disjoint measurable , [F19] identifies its nonnegative integral with its simple integral [F13], and countable singleton weights [F6] give . For general nonnegative measurable , choose simple by [F12]; MCT [F7] passes the integrals to the limit, while [F20] fixes the nonnegative integral and [F21] ensures the increments are finite-valued nonnegative simple functions. Thus with ; Tonelli [F14] interchanges the increment and state sums when is countably infinite, using its fixed enumeration, while for finite the limit passes through the finite sum. It follows that , the support-restricted action [F18].
As , and for every ; [F7] and measurability of the increasing limit [F11] give by steps 1.4–1.6 and [F2]. Combining with step 1.3 proves on , including the value .
If , there is no probability law of an -valued chain and no state to check; if , step 1.2 covers every state; if , the boundary payoff is zero and the equation still holds when and . If , then ; a one-state absorbing chain in with positive cost has , and deterministic rows obey the same shift calculation. The endpoint is handled in step 1.2, whereas on one has and the exit-time cost is excluded by . AC [A1] is used for the canonical laws and conditional-expectation/Markov identities [F3]–[F5], [F15]; countability supplies the fixed row representation, with no additional choice principle. The two equations form no biconditional.
Depends on
- The Axiom of Choice
- Hitting, return, and visit times
- Transition matrices and n-step probabilities
- Nonnegative kernel action and finite drift
- Bounded-function form of the Markov property
- Markov property for bounded future path functionals
- Every measure on a countable discrete space is its weighted sum of Dirac measures
- Series in the nonnegative extended real line
- Nonnegative simple measurable functions
- The nonnegative Lebesgue integral
- The integral of a nonnegative simple function
- The nonnegative integral agrees with the simple integral on simple functions
- Every nonnegative measurable function is the increasing limit of simple measurable functions
- Monotone convergence for the integral
- Tonelli's theorem for double series of nonnegative extended real numbers
- Additivity of the nonnegative Lebesgue integral
- Closure properties of measurable functions used by the integral
- Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation
- Initial distribution of a Markov chain
Used by
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Sources
- Roch, Lecture Notes on Measure-Theoretic Probability Theory, Note 24 (standard reference, not scraped)