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The finite linear-Gaussian state-space path is jointly Gaussian
Statement
Assume AC and fix a finite-horizon model of Linear-Gaussian state-space models with independent noises. There is a probability space carrying mutually independent Gaussian vectors with the stated laws. The recursions and induce the general kernel-product law of General finite-horizon state-space models by kernels. In the interleaved order , there is a deterministic matrix such that and The covariance may be singular.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC and a finite-horizon parameter tuple from the linear-Gaussian definition, with every initial/process/observation covariance symmetric positive semidefinite.
AC is used by the multivariate-normal construction, characteristic-law uniqueness, Cramer–Wold, and Ionescu–Tulcea suppliers below. (The Axiom of Choice)
The model has Gaussian initial, transition and observation laws, and its independent-noise representation uses the displayed linear recursions. (Linear-Gaussian state-space models with independent noises)
Under AC, every positive-semidefinite covariance defines a multivariate normal probability law, including singular covariances. (Multivariate normal law, including singular covariance)
Finite products of probability measures exist by the sigma-finite product measure theorem and have the rectangle formula. (For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique)
Independence of random elements is independence of their generated sigma-algebras, and a finite independent family has product joint law. (Independent random elements, Independent random elements have product joint law)
Tonelli's theorem permits iterated integration of nonnegative product- measurable functions against sigma-finite product measures. (Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product)
A probability kernel has probability-measure sections and measurable evaluations. (Measure kernel and probability kernel)
Integrating a nonnegative product-measurable function against a probability kernel gives a measurable evaluation function. (Measurability of integration against a kernel)
Under AC, the characteristic function of a multivariate normal law is and uniquely determines the law, including singular covariance. (Characteristic function of a multivariate normal law)
Scalar affine transformations have the stated characteristic-function formula. (Characteristic functions under affine maps and independent sums)
The finite-horizon kernel law exists uniquely and has the stated ordered iterated-integral formula. (Finite-horizon state-space kernel law exists and is unique)
A finite stack of mutually independent Gaussian vectors is multivariate normal with block-diagonal covariance. (A finite stack of independent Gaussian vectors is jointly Gaussian)
Finite products of standard-Borel spaces are standard Borel. (Finite products of standard Borel spaces are standard Borel)
Proof
Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.
Each Gaussian marginal law in the model exists on its finite-dimensional Euclidean Borel space. Repeatedly applying the finite-product measure construction creates a finite product probability space with these marginals. Its coordinate maps have the prescribed marginals, and the rectangle formula gives product probabilities on all measurable coordinate rectangles. Therefore the generated sigma-algebras are mutually independent, and the finite family has the product joint law. Thus this space supplies the required independent Gaussian noise vectors.
For a Borel set , define ; define analogously using and . The maps and are continuous, so the integrands are product-measurable. Each fixed-state section is a pushforward probability measure. Regard each fixed Gaussian noise law as a constant probability kernel. Kernel integration then makes the evaluations measurable in the state argument, so both families are probability kernels. For fixed and any , the scalar affine characteristic-function identity applied to , together with the multivariate-normal characteristic-function formula, gives . This is the multivariate-normal characteristic function with mean and covariance , so its uniqueness identifies the translated law with . The same calculation with identifies . No covariance inverse is used.
Let be any nonnegative Borel function on the finite trajectory space. The recursion is a finite composition of continuous affine maps, so is measurable. By Tonelli, integrate the noise product law from step 1.1 backward, starting with the last pair . For each fixed preceding history, the integral over is the pushforward through , hence equals integration against ; the following integral over is the pushforward through , hence equals integration against . Repeating this argument for and finally integrating against gives . For , it is simply integration against . This is exactly the unique general model law, and the trajectory space is standard Borel.
The stacked-noise lemma gives the vector the multivariate normal law . Successive substitution in the two recursions shows by finite induction that each coordinate of is a linear function of ; collecting those coefficients gives a deterministic matrix . For any vector , , whose law is normal with mean and variance . The multivariate-normal projection definition gives . The covariance is positive semidefinite because implies . Thus singular covariances are included and no inverse is needed.
Depends on
- The Axiom of Choice
- General finite-horizon state-space models by kernels
- Independent random elements
- Linear-Gaussian state-space models with independent noises
- Measure kernel and probability kernel
- Multivariate normal law, including singular covariance
- The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
- Characteristic function of a multivariate normal law
- Characteristic functions under affine maps and independent sums
- A finite stack of independent Gaussian vectors is jointly Gaussian
- Finite products of standard Borel spaces are standard Borel
- Finite-horizon state-space kernel law exists and is unique
- Independent random elements have product joint law
- Measurability of integration against a kernel
- For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique
- Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product
Used by
- Same state dynamics with distinct observation kernels Example
- Singular state covariance with positive innovation covariance Example
- The backward Gaussian kernel remains valid after future observations Lemma
- The finite-horizon linear-Gaussian Kalman filter is exact Theorem
Cited to discharge well-definedness by Linear-Gaussian state-space models with independent noises.
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Sources
- Nicolai Meinshausen, Time Series Analysis: Notes for the course HS 2022 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Dewei Wang, STAT 720 Time Series Analysis, Spring 2015 lecture notes (standard reference, not scraped)