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Uniformization constructs every finite-state rate matrix chain

Statement

Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let E be a nonempty finite set, let L be a rate matrix on E with nonnegative off-diagonal entries and zero row sums, and let ν be an initial probability vector. Then there exists a uniformized realization under the conventions stated below. Its paths are càdlàg and almost surely have only finitely many event times on each bounded interval (nonexplosion), and, for all 0≤s≤t, P(Xt=j∣Fs)=(e(t−s)L)Xsjalmost surely, where Fs=σ(Nu,Xu:0≤u≤s) is the construction filtration. In particular, etL is the transition matrix from any initial state.

Statement references

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite state set E, a rate matrix L, an initial probability vector ν, and the Axiom of Choice.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice is used by the stated countable Ionescu–Tulcea construction; The Axiom of Choice is its exact assumption.

[F1]

Finite-state generator chain: for q=max⁡iλi>0, R=I+L/q and a uniformized realization uses an R-Markov sequence independent of iid rate-q exponential waiting times; Nt counts their arrivals and Xt=YNt.

[F2]

Ionescu-Tulcea construction of a Markov chain: under Choice, a probability law with the specified initial distribution and measurable transition kernels exists on the countable sequence space, with the prescribed finite-prefix laws.

[F3]

Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem: probability measures that agree on a generating pi-system agree on the sigma-algebra it generates.

[F4]

Monotone convergence for the integral: increasing limits of nonnegative measurable functions pass through their integrals.

[F5]

Tower property of conditional expectation: under AC, for H⊆G and integrable Z, E[E[Z∣G]∣H]=E[Z∣H]; a H-measurable version of E[Z∣G] is also a version of E[Z∣H].

Proof

1.1givenalgebra

Put λi=∑j≠iLij and q=max⁡iλi. If q=0, all off-diagonal entries vanish and the zero row sums force L=0. On the finite probability space (E,2E,ν) put Y0(ω)=ω and Xt=Y0 for all t. Then Nt=0, paths are constant, the conditional transition is the identity, and etL=I, giving the conclusion in this case.

1.2givenF1constructalgebra

Suppose q>0. For i≠j, Rij=Lij/q≥0, while Rii=1−λi/q≥0; each row sums to 1. Let μq(dw)=qe−qw dw on (0,∞), a probability measure because its density integrates to 1. On E×(0,∞) use initial law ν⊗μq and transition kernel K((i,w),{j}×B)=Rijμq(B) for Borel B⊆(0,∞). For any Borel subset of the product, its kernel value is the finite sum over j of Rij times the μq-measure of the corresponding section; thus it is measurable, nonnegative and has total mass 1.

2.1A1F1F2F3step 1.2

Apply [F2] to this initial law and kernel, and write the resulting coordinates as Zn=(Yn,Wn+1). Their finite-prefix law factors as the Markov-chain prefix law for Y times ∏k=1n+1μq(dWk), because every transition kernel chooses the next state with probabilities Rij and the next waiting time with the same factor μq, independently of the current waiting time. Cylinder events generate the two coordinate sigma-algebras, so [F3] extends this factorization to independence of the full sequence Y from the iid family (Wk). The first coordinate is an R-Markov sequence with initial law ν, as required by [F1].

3.1F1F4step 2.1

Each Wk has probability e−1 of being at least q−1. For any fixed r, independence gives P(Wk<q−1 for r≤k≤n)=(1−e−1)n−r+1→0. Continuity of probability for decreasing events, obtained by applying [F4] to complements, shows that the probability of no such event after r is zero. A countable union over r shows that Wk≥q−1 occurs infinitely often almost surely, and therefore ∑kWk=∞ almost surely. On every bounded time interval there are consequently finitely many event times; the convention Xt=YNt makes paths right-continuous with left limits.

3.2F1step 2.1algebra

For n≥1, convolution of the exponential densities gives the arrival-time density fTn(u)=qnun−1e−qu(n−1)!,u>0. Indeed the formula holds for n=1, and convolving it with qe−q(t−u) gives qn+1e−qt∫0tun−1du/(n−1)!=qn+1tne−qt/n!. Since Wn+1 is independent of Tn, for n≥1, P(Nt=n)=∫0tfTn(u)P(Wn+1>t−u) du=e−qt(qt)nn!; for n=0 the probability is P(W1>t)=e−qt.

4.1F1step 2.1step 3.2algebra

The event process has independent rate-q Poisson increments. To see the conditional assertion needed here, on {Ns=n} the event-clock history gives Tn≤s<Tn+1; by the exponential memoryless identity P(Wn+1−(s−Tn)>u∣Wn+1>s−Tn)=e−qu, the residual time after s is rate-q exponential independent of that history. The later waiting times are independent rate-q exponentials as well. Repeating the calculation in step 3.2 shows that, conditional on the clock history up to s, Ns+h−Ns has probabilities e−qh(qh)k/k!, independent of that history. The clock is independent of Y by step 2.1 and the uniformized convention [F1].

5.1F1F5step 2.1step 4.1algebra

Let Hs=(Y0,…,YNs) be the finite embedded-state prefix and put Gs=σ(Nu:0≤u≤s,Hs). Since Nu≤Ns for u≤s, the construction filtration Fs=σ(Nu,Xu:0≤u≤s) is contained in Gs. Given Gs and Xs=i, k further clock events have probability e−qh(qh)k/k! by step 4.1, and the embedded chain has k-step transition matrix Rk. Hence P(Xs+h=j∣Gs)=∑k=0∞e−qh(qh)kk!(Rk)ij=(e−qheqhR)ij=(ehL)ij, since q(R−I)=L. This conditional law depends on Gs only through Xs; [F5] applied to the integrable indicator 1{Xs+h=j} and Fs⊆Gs gives the required identity for all s≤t. The matrix series converges absolutely because E is finite.

6.1givenF1step 3.1step 5.1∎

The constructed X is adapted to Ft by definition. Step 3.1 gives nonexplosion and càdlàg paths; step 5.1 gives its all-pairs conditional transition matrices. Thus it is a uniformized realization for every finite rate matrix, including reducible matrices and states with λi=0.

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