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Uniformization constructs every finite-state rate matrix chain
Statement
Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let be a nonempty finite set, let be a rate matrix on with nonnegative off-diagonal entries and zero row sums, and let be an initial probability vector. Then there exists a uniformized realization under the conventions stated below. Its paths are càdlàg and almost surely have only finitely many event times on each bounded interval (nonexplosion), and, for all , where is the construction filtration. In particular, is the transition matrix from any initial state.
Statement references
Facts & Assumptions
Given: A finite state set , a rate matrix , an initial probability vector , and the Axiom of Choice.
The Axiom of Choice is used by the stated countable Ionescu–Tulcea construction; The Axiom of Choice is its exact assumption.
Finite-state generator chain: for , and a uniformized realization uses an -Markov sequence independent of iid rate- exponential waiting times; counts their arrivals and .
Ionescu-Tulcea construction of a Markov chain: under Choice, a probability law with the specified initial distribution and measurable transition kernels exists on the countable sequence space, with the prescribed finite-prefix laws.
Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem: probability measures that agree on a generating pi-system agree on the sigma-algebra it generates.
Monotone convergence for the integral: increasing limits of nonnegative measurable functions pass through their integrals.
Tower property of conditional expectation: under AC, for and integrable , ; a -measurable version of is also a version of .
Proof
Put and . If , all off-diagonal entries vanish and the zero row sums force . On the finite probability space put and for all . Then , paths are constant, the conditional transition is the identity, and , giving the conclusion in this case.
Suppose . For , , while ; each row sums to . Let on , a probability measure because its density integrates to . On use initial law and transition kernel for Borel . For any Borel subset of the product, its kernel value is the finite sum over of times the -measure of the corresponding section; thus it is measurable, nonnegative and has total mass .
Apply [F2] to this initial law and kernel, and write the resulting coordinates as . Their finite-prefix law factors as the Markov-chain prefix law for times , because every transition kernel chooses the next state with probabilities and the next waiting time with the same factor , independently of the current waiting time. Cylinder events generate the two coordinate sigma-algebras, so [F3] extends this factorization to independence of the full sequence from the iid family . The first coordinate is an -Markov sequence with initial law , as required by [F1].
Each has probability of being at least . For any fixed , independence gives . Continuity of probability for decreasing events, obtained by applying [F4] to complements, shows that the probability of no such event after is zero. A countable union over shows that occurs infinitely often almost surely, and therefore almost surely. On every bounded time interval there are consequently finitely many event times; the convention makes paths right-continuous with left limits.
For , convolution of the exponential densities gives the arrival-time density Indeed the formula holds for , and convolving it with gives . Since is independent of , for , for the probability is .
The event process has independent rate- Poisson increments. To see the conditional assertion needed here, on the event-clock history gives ; by the exponential memoryless identity , the residual time after is rate- exponential independent of that history. The later waiting times are independent rate- exponentials as well. Repeating the calculation in step 3.2 shows that, conditional on the clock history up to , has probabilities , independent of that history. The clock is independent of by step 2.1 and the uniformized convention [F1].
Let be the finite embedded-state prefix and put . Since for , the construction filtration is contained in . Given and , further clock events have probability by step 4.1, and the embedded chain has -step transition matrix . Hence since . This conditional law depends on only through ; [F5] applied to the integrable indicator and gives the required identity for all . The matrix series converges absolutely because is finite.
The constructed is adapted to by definition. Step 3.1 gives nonexplosion and càdlàg paths; step 5.1 gives its all-pairs conditional transition matrices. Thus it is a uniformized realization for every finite rate matrix, including reducible matrices and states with .