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Local topology, entropy compactness and path-space estimates

1 · Prerequisites

2 · Summary

3 · Logical flowchart

4 · Definitions, postulates, theorems and proofs

DefinitionDefinition: AI-adaptedProof: Not applicableprecheck passverified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)Open item page →

Finite-spin product and local topologies

Definition

Fix an integer d≥1, a finite nonempty alphabet S with the discrete topology, and a bijective enumeration x1,x2,… of Zd. Let Ω=SZd be the set of all configurations σ:Zd→S with the product topology, the smallest topology that makes each coordinate map σ↦σx continuous. For a finite set F⊆Zd and assignment a∈SF, the cylinder set determined by (F,a) is [F,a]={σ∈Ω:σ∣F=a}. The cylinder sigma-algebra C is generated by these sets.

For each finite F, let πF:Ω→SF be restriction to F. A probability measure ρ on (Ω,C) is a countably additive map C→[0,1] with ρ(∅)=0 and ρ(Ω)=1. Its finite-coordinate pushforward is the measure on all subsets of SF defined by (πF)∗ρ(B):=ρ(πF−1(B)); the preimage is a finite union of cylinders and belongs to C. For probability measures μn,μ on this space, local weak convergence μn→locμ means that (πF)∗μn(B)→(πF)∗μ(B) for every finite F⊆Zd and every B⊆SF. Equivalently, all finite-coordinate cylinder probabilities converge. The cylinder sigma-algebra is shown below in a local result to equal the Borel sigma-algebra, with local weak convergence equal to ordinary weak convergence on this space.

Remarks

This finite-spin product topology and cylinder convergence are distinct from the vague topology on locally finite counting measures. Vague convergence tests compactly supported spatial functions and may lose mass at infinity; it does not by itself imply weak convergence of probability measures.

DefinitionDefinition: AI-adaptedProof: Not applicableprecheck passverified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)Open item page →

Locally finite counting measures and vague topology

Definition

Fix d≥1. Let B(Rd) be the σ-algebra generated by the Euclidean open sets, and understand all measures below as defined on (Rd,B(Rd)). A measure here is a countably additive map from B(Rd) to [0,∞] that assigns 0 to the empty set. A locally finite counting measure on Rd is a measure of the form ξ=∑r∈Iδxr, where I is finite or countable, repetitions among the points xr∈Rd are allowed, and every compact set contains only finitely many listed points, counting repetitions. The empty sum is allowed and is the zero measure. For a Borel set B, ξ(B) is the number of listed points in B, with multiplicity. Write Γlf(Rd) for the set of these measures. For x∈Rd, the point mass δx assigns mass 1 to a Borel set containing x and mass 0 otherwise.

For any continuous compactly supported f:Rd→R and ξ=∑r∈Iδxr, define ∫f dξ:=∑r:xr∈supp⁡ff(xr), where supp⁡f is the closure of {x:f(x)≠0}. This sum is finite by local finiteness, counts multiplicities, and is independent of the listing because ξ fixes the multiplicity at every point. For the zero measure it is 0.

The vague topology on Γlf(Rd) is the coarsest topology for which ξ↦∫f dξ is continuous for every nonnegative continuous compactly supported function f:Rd→R. Thus ξn→vξ exactly when ∫f dξn→∫f dξ for every such f.

Given a probability space (Θ,A,P), meaning that A is a σ-algebra on Θ and P is a countably additive probability measure on A with P(Θ)=1, a random locally finite counting measure is an (A,Bv)-measurable map Ξ:Θ→Γlf(Rd), where Bv:=σ{U:U is open in the vague topology just defined}. We require that, for every bounded Borel set B⊆Rd, the evaluation Ξ(B):Θ→[0,∞) given by Ξ(B)(θ)=Ξ(θ)(B) is A-measurable; it is finite by local finiteness. Write EP for integration with respect to P. A sequence (Ξn) of such measures on a common probability space uses this same domain and target for every n. If K is compact, its local counts are uniformly integrable on K when

lim⁡R→∞sup⁡nEP ⁣[Ξn(K)1{Ξn(K)>R}]=0.

This is the count-tail condition used when an argument needs control of unbounded observables supported in K. The definition asserts no convergence of expectations without the exact test-function, support, and tail hypotheses of the result being applied.

Remarks

This measure-space topology is distinct from finite-spin product topology and cylinder convergence. Vague convergence tests compactly supported spatial functions and can lose mass at infinity; weak convergence of probability measures cannot be inferred from it without an additional tightness condition.

DefinitionDefinition: AI-adaptedProof: Not applicableprecheck passverified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)Open item page →

Finite-state generator chain

Definition

Let E={1,…,m} for a finite integer m≥1. A rate matrix on E is a real matrix L=(Lij)i,j∈E such that Lij≥0 for i≠j and ∑j∈ELij=0 for every i. Write λi=∑j≠iLij, so Lii=−λi. The row convention acts on a column observable f:E→R by (Lf)(i)=∑jLijf(j); a row probability vector evolves by right multiplication.

Fix an initial probability vector ν=(νi)i∈E, meaning νi≥0 and ∑i∈Eνi=1; initial law ν means P(Y0=i)=νi for every i∈E. Put q=max⁡iλi. If q=0, then L=0 and set Nt=0 for every t≥0 and let the associated realization be the constant process Xt=Y0 with Y0∼ν. If q>0, put R=I+L/q, a stochastic matrix. A uniformized realization consists of a probability space carrying a discrete-time Markov sequence (Yn)n≥0 with initial law ν and transition matrix R, and independent random variables (Wn)n≥1 that are independent of the entire sequence Y and satisfy P(Wn>u)=e−qu for u≥0. Here a discrete-time Markov sequence with transition matrix R means that P(A∩{Yn+1=j})=E[1ARYnj] for every n≥0, j∈E, and A∈σ(Y0,…,Yn). Each Wn therefore has the exponential distribution of rate q; in particular its mean is q−1. Require ∑n≥1Wn=+∞ almost surely. Put T0=0, Tn=∑k=1nWk, and, on this probability-one event, Nt=max⁡{n:Tn≤t} and Xt=YNt. On its null complement set Nt=0 and Xt=Y0. The construction filtration is Ft=σ(Ns,Xs:0≤s≤t); it records event counts and states through time t and is not completed or made right-continuous by this definition.

This uniformized construction permits reducible rate matrices and states with zero exit rate. Under the Axiom of Choice, Uniformization constructs every finite-state rate matrix chain ↗ proves that every finite rate matrix and initial law admit such a realization and that its conditional transition matrices are etL:=∑n=0∞tnLn/n!.

LemmaStatement: AI-adaptedProof: AI-adaptedprecheck passverified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)Open item page →

Finite-horizon L2 maximal bound for martingales with right-continuous paths and left limits

Statement

Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let T≥0, let (Ω,F,P) be a probability space, and let (Ft)0≤t≤T be an increasing family of sub-σ-algebras of F. Let (Mt)0≤t≤T be a family of real random variables such that each Mt is Ft-measurable, E[Mt2]<∞, M0=0, and E[Mt∣Fs]=Ms almost surely for every 0≤s≤t≤T. Suppose it has càdlàg paths almost surely, meaning there is a measurable event Ω0∈F with P(Ω0)=1 such that, for every ω∈Ω0, the path t↦Mt(ω) is right-continuous on [0,T) and has a finite left limit at every t∈(0,T]. Define

DT=⋃n≥0{kT/2n:0≤k≤2n},ST=sup⁡t∈DT∣Mt∣.

Then ST is measurable and agrees with the pathwise supremum sup⁡0≤t≤T∣Mt∣ on Ω0, and

E[ST2]≤4 E[∣MT∣2].

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite horizon T≥0, the filtered probability space, square-integrable all-pairs martingale, and measurable probability-one path-regularity event specified in the Statement, and the Axiom of Choice.

[A1]

Assume Choice for the conditional-expectation interface in the continuous-time martingale definition (The Axiom of Choice).

[F1]

Continuous-time adapted processes and martingales: E[MT∣Ft]=Mt almost surely for every deterministic t≤T.

[F2]

Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation: ∣E[Z∣G]∣≤E[∣Z∣∣G] almost surely for integrable real Z.

[F3]

Cauchy-Schwarz for random variables: E[∣UV∣]≤(EU2)1/2(EV2)1/2 for square-integrable real random variables.

[F4]

Layer-cake formulas for random variables: for nonnegative measurable Z, EZ=∫0∞P(Z>r) dr, including infinite values.

[F5]

Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product: a nonnegative measurable function on the product of the time half-line and the probability space may be integrated in either order.

[F6]

Monotone convergence for the integral: expectations of increasing nonnegative sequences converge to the expectation of their pointwise limit.

[F7]

Conditional expectation given a sigma algebra: a version U of E[Z∣G] is integrable and G-measurable, and E[U1C]=E[Z1C] for every C∈G.

Proof

1.1A1F1F2F7construct

The result is immediate when T=0. Suppose T>0, fix n≥0, and let tk=kT/2n for 0≤k≤2n. Put Sn=max⁡0≤k≤2n∣Mtk∣, which is square-integrable because it is bounded by the finite sum ∑k∣Mtk∣. For r>0, let τ be the first grid index k with ∣Mtk∣≥r, or leave it undefined if no grid value reaches r. Each event Ck={τ=k} belongs to Ftk. By [F1] and [F2], ∣Mtk∣=∣E[MT∣Ftk]∣≤E[∣MT∣∣Ftk] almost surely. Thus [F7] gives E[∣MT∣1Ck]=E[E[∣MT∣∣Ftk]1Ck]≥E[∣Mtk∣1Ck]≥rP(Ck). Summing over the finite grid yields r P(Sn≥r)≤E[∣MT∣1{Sn≥r}].

2.1F3F4F5step 1.1algebra

Apply [F4] to Sn2, use P(Sn>r)≤P(Sn≥r) and integrate the bound from step 1.1. [F5] for the nonnegative measurable function (r,ω)↦∣MT(ω)∣1{Sn(ω)≥r} gives ESn2=∫0∞2r P(Sn>r) dr≤2 E[∣MT∣Sn]. By [F3], the right side is at most 2(E∣MT∣2)1/2(ESn2)1/2. If ESn2=0 the desired finite-grid bound is immediate; otherwise divide by its square root and square to obtain ESn2≤4E∣MT∣2.

3.1F6step 2.1algebra∎

The dyadic grids are nested, so Sn↑S∗:=sup⁡t∈DT∣Mt∣=ST. For every ω∈Ω0 and each t<T, there are dyadic grid times decreasing to t, and right-continuity makes their process values converge to Mt(ω); time T is in every grid. Hence S∗ equals the pathwise supremum on [0,T] almost surely. Apply [F6] to Sn2 and take limits in the finite-grid estimate from step 2.1 to obtain the stated inequality.

LemmaStatement: AI-adaptedProof: AI-adaptedprecheck passverified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)Open item page →

Finite relative-entropy chain rule and event grouping

Statement

Let I,J be finite nonempty sets, let P,Q be probability vectors on I×J (a probability vector p on a finite nonempty set H is a function p:H→[0,1] with ∑z∈Hp(z)=1), and assume Q(x,y)>0 for every (x,y). For probability vectors p,q on a finite set with q strictly positive, define D(p∥q)=∑z:p(z)>0p(z)ln⁡p(z)q(z), with zero-mass terms omitted. For C⊆I×J, write P(C)=∑z∈CP(z) and Q(C)=∑z∈CQ(z). Define the first-coordinate marginals by PX(x)=∑y∈JP(x,y) and QX(x)=∑y∈JQ(x,y). For x with PX(x)>0, define PY∣x(y)=P(x,y)/PX(x); define QY∣x(y)=Q(x,y)/QX(x) for every x, since strict positivity of Q gives QX(x)>0. These are probability vectors on J; terms weighted by PX(x)=0 are omitted. Then D(P∥Q)=D(PX∥QX)+∑x:PX(x)>0PX(x)D(PY∣x∥QY∣x). For every subset C⊆I×J, grouping the atoms into C and its complement cannot increase relative entropy: D(P∥Q)≥d(P(C)∥Q(C)),d(a∥b)=aln⁡ab+(1−a)ln⁡1−a1−b, with zero-weight terms omitted. For the empty or full event, the binary divergence is 0, and the grouping bound reduces to D(P∥Q)≥0, with equality exactly when P=Q. For a nonempty proper event C, equality holds exactly when, on each of C and Cc having positive P-mass, the conditional probability vectors of P and Q agree.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: Finite nonempty sets I,J, probability vectors P,Q on I×J, strict positivity of Q, and the natural logarithm convention.

[F1]

Nonnegativity and equality for finite classical relative entropy: for finite probability vectors with positive reference vector, relative entropy as defined above is nonnegative and vanishes exactly when the probability vectors coincide; its proof derives the scalar inequality −ln⁡u≥1−u from the logarithm derivative.

Proof

1.1givenF2algebra

Write px=PX(x) and qx=QX(x). Strict positivity of Q gives qx>0 and QY∣x(y)>0 for each x,y. If P(x,y)>0, then px>0 and ln⁡P(x,y)Q(x,y)=ln⁡pxqx+ln⁡PY∣x(y)QY∣x(y) by [F2]. Multiply by P(x,y) and sum over positive joint atoms. For each x with px>0, summing the first term over y gives pxln⁡(px/qx), and summing the second gives pxD(PY∣x∥QY∣x). Atoms with px=0 contribute no terms. This is exactly the claimed chain rule.

2.1givenF1F2algebracases∎

If C is empty or all of I×J, then P(C)=Q(C) is respectively 0 or 1, so the binary divergence is 0 under the stated zero-weight convention. The grouping bound is then D(P∥Q)≥0, with equality exactly when P=Q by [F1]. For a nonempty proper C, strict positivity gives 0<Q(C)<1. Put a=P(C) and b=Q(C). When a>0, the conditional laws on C are PC(z)=P(z)/a and QC(z)=Q(z)/b; the latter is strictly positive on C. The logarithmic identity ln⁡(P(z)/Q(z))=ln⁡(a/b)+ln⁡(PC(z)/QC(z)) for each z∈C with P(z)>0 yields ∑z∈C:P(z)>0P(z)ln⁡P(z)Q(z)=aln⁡ab+aD(PC∥QC). If a=0, both the sum and the weighted conditional term are zero, so the same identity holds with that term omitted. Applying the identical calculation to Cc and adding gives D(P∥Q)=d(a∥b)+aD(PC∥QC)+(1−a)D(PCc∥QCc), with zero-weight conditional terms omitted. Both weighted conditional divergences are nonnegative by [F1], which proves the grouping inequality, including a=0 or 1. Equality holds precisely when every conditional divergence with positive weight vanishes; by the equality clause of [F1], this is equivalent to agreement of the conditional probability vectors on each positive-P-mass block. Zero-P-mass blocks impose no conditional-law condition.

LemmaStatement: AI-adaptedProof: AI-adaptedprecheck passverified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)Open item page →

Cylinder convergence is weak convergence on a finite-spin product

Statement

Let d≥1, let S be a finite nonempty set with a fixed total order, and fix a bijective enumeration x1,x2,… of Zd. Put Ω=SZd, give it the product topology, and let its cylinder sigma-algebra be generated by finite-coordinate assignments. Then the product topology is induced by ρ(σ,η)=∑k=1∞2−k1{σxk≠ηxk}, Ω is compact, and its Borel sigma-algebra equals the cylinder sigma-algebra. For probability measures μn,μ on this sigma-algebra, convergence of every finite-coordinate marginal is equivalent to weak convergence, where weak convergence means convergence of integrals of every bounded continuous real function on Ω.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite alphabet, site enumeration, product space, cylinder sigma-algebra and local weak convergence convention in the Statement.

[F1]

Finite-spin product and local topologies: local weak convergence means convergence of every finite-coordinate marginal, equivalently every cylinder probability.

[F2]

In the product topology a basic neighborhood fixes the spins on finitely many sites; every cylinder determined by a single finite assignment is both open and closed.

Proof

1.1givenalgebra

If σ≠η, some coordinate differs, so ρ(σ,η)>0; symmetry is immediate, and the coordinatewise triangle inequality gives the triangle inequality after summing. If two configurations agree on x1,…,xN, then ρ≤∑k>N2−k=2−N. Conversely, if ρ(σ,η)<2−N, no coordinate among x1,…,xN differs, because a mismatch at xk contributes at least 2−N. These bounds show that metric balls and finite-coordinate basic neighborhoods generate the same topology.

1.2givenF1F2

If μn→locμ, every cylinder indicator is bounded and continuous by [F2], so its integrals converge. Every bounded function depending on finitely many coordinates is a finite linear combination of cylinder indicators, and its integrals therefore converge as well.

2.1givenF2step 1.1construct

Suppose an open cover of Ω has no finite subcover. Let C0=Ω. Recursively, if CN−1 is the cylinder fixing the first N−1 spins and has no finite subcover, its finitely many children obtained by assigning σxN=s cannot all have finite subcovers; otherwise their finite union would cover CN−1. Choose the least s in the fixed order whose child still has no finite subcover and call that child CN. These nested cylinders determine a configuration σ. A cover member containing σ contains a basic neighborhood fixing finitely many sites; for sufficiently large N, CN lies inside that neighborhood and hence has a one-member subcover, a contradiction. Thus every open cover has a finite subcover and Ω is compact.

2.2givenF2step 1.1

Each cylinder is clopen by [F2], and cylinders form a countable basis: Zd has countably many finite subsets, and each finite coordinate set has finitely many spin assignments. Therefore every open set is a countable union of cylinders and belongs to the cylinder sigma-algebra, while every cylinder is Borel. Hence the two sigma-algebras are equal.

3.1givenF2step 2.1construct

Fix a bounded continuous g:Ω→R and ε>0. For each σ, continuity and the cylinder basis give a cylinder neighborhood Cσ of σ on which ∣g(η)−g(σ)∣<ε/3. Compactness from step 2.1 gives a finite subcover C1,…,Cr. Let F be the union of the finitely many coordinate sets fixed by these cylinders. If η,ζ agree on F, choose a Ci containing η; because Ci depends only on a subset of F, it also contains ζ, so ∣g(η)−g(ζ)∣<2ε/3. Choose N with F⊆{x1,…,xN} and fix one default spin s0∈S. Replace all coordinates after xN by s0 to define a canonical extension σ^ of each first-N prefix, and set gN(σ)=g(σ^). Then gN depends only on the first N coordinates and sup⁡σ∣g(σ)−gN(σ)∣<ε.

4.1givenF1F2step 1.2step 3.1∎

For every n, ∣∫g dμn−∫gN dμn∣≤ε and the same bound holds for μ. Step 1.2 gives ∫gN dμn→∫gN dμ, so the limit superior of ∣∫g dμn−∫g dμ∣ is at most 2ε. Since ε>0 is arbitrary, weak convergence follows. Conversely, if μn converges weakly, indicators of all cylinders are bounded continuous by [F2], so their probabilities converge; finite sums give every finite marginal, hence local weak convergence by [F1].

LemmaStatement: AI-adaptedProof: AI-adaptedprecheck passverified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)Open item page →

Uniformization constructs every finite-state rate matrix chain

Statement

Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let E be a nonempty finite set, let L be a rate matrix on E with nonnegative off-diagonal entries and zero row sums, and let ν be an initial probability vector. Then there exists a uniformized realization under the conventions stated below. Its paths are càdlàg and almost surely have only finitely many event times on each bounded interval (nonexplosion), and, for all 0≤s≤t, P(Xt=j∣Fs)=(e(t−s)L)Xsjalmost surely, where Fs=σ(Nu,Xu:0≤u≤s) is the construction filtration. In particular, etL is the transition matrix from any initial state.

Statement references

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite state set E, a rate matrix L, an initial probability vector ν, and the Axiom of Choice.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice is used by the stated countable Ionescu–Tulcea construction; The Axiom of Choice is its exact assumption.

[F1]

Finite-state generator chain: for q=max⁡iλi>0, R=I+L/q and a uniformized realization uses an R-Markov sequence independent of iid rate-q exponential waiting times; Nt counts their arrivals and Xt=YNt.

[F2]

Ionescu-Tulcea construction of a Markov chain: under Choice, a probability law with the specified initial distribution and measurable transition kernels exists on the countable sequence space, with the prescribed finite-prefix laws.

[F3]

Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem: probability measures that agree on a generating pi-system agree on the sigma-algebra it generates.

[F4]

Monotone convergence for the integral: increasing limits of nonnegative measurable functions pass through their integrals.

[F5]

Tower property of conditional expectation: under AC, for H⊆G and integrable Z, E[E[Z∣G]∣H]=E[Z∣H]; a H-measurable version of E[Z∣G] is also a version of E[Z∣H].

Proof

1.1givenalgebra

Put λi=∑j≠iLij and q=max⁡iλi. If q=0, all off-diagonal entries vanish and the zero row sums force L=0. On the finite probability space (E,2E,ν) put Y0(ω)=ω and Xt=Y0 for all t. Then Nt=0, paths are constant, the conditional transition is the identity, and etL=I, giving the conclusion in this case.

1.2givenF1constructalgebra

Suppose q>0. For i≠j, Rij=Lij/q≥0, while Rii=1−λi/q≥0; each row sums to 1. Let μq(dw)=qe−qw dw on (0,∞), a probability measure because its density integrates to 1. On E×(0,∞) use initial law ν⊗μq and transition kernel K((i,w),{j}×B)=Rijμq(B) for Borel B⊆(0,∞). For any Borel subset of the product, its kernel value is the finite sum over j of Rij times the μq-measure of the corresponding section; thus it is measurable, nonnegative and has total mass 1.

2.1A1F1F2F3step 1.2

Apply [F2] to this initial law and kernel, and write the resulting coordinates as Zn=(Yn,Wn+1). Their finite-prefix law factors as the Markov-chain prefix law for Y times ∏k=1n+1μq(dWk), because every transition kernel chooses the next state with probabilities Rij and the next waiting time with the same factor μq, independently of the current waiting time. Cylinder events generate the two coordinate sigma-algebras, so [F3] extends this factorization to independence of the full sequence Y from the iid family (Wk). The first coordinate is an R-Markov sequence with initial law ν, as required by [F1].

3.1F1F4step 2.1

Each Wk has probability e−1 of being at least q−1. For any fixed r, independence gives P(Wk<q−1 for r≤k≤n)=(1−e−1)n−r+1→0. Continuity of probability for decreasing events, obtained by applying [F4] to complements, shows that the probability of no such event after r is zero. A countable union over r shows that Wk≥q−1 occurs infinitely often almost surely, and therefore ∑kWk=∞ almost surely. On every bounded time interval there are consequently finitely many event times; the convention Xt=YNt makes paths right-continuous with left limits.

3.2F1step 2.1algebra

For n≥1, convolution of the exponential densities gives the arrival-time density fTn(u)=qnun−1e−qu(n−1)!,u>0. Indeed the formula holds for n=1, and convolving it with qe−q(t−u) gives qn+1e−qt∫0tun−1du/(n−1)!=qn+1tne−qt/n!. Since Wn+1 is independent of Tn, for n≥1, P(Nt=n)=∫0tfTn(u)P(Wn+1>t−u) du=e−qt(qt)nn!; for n=0 the probability is P(W1>t)=e−qt.

4.1F1step 2.1step 3.2algebra

The event process has independent rate-q Poisson increments. To see the conditional assertion needed here, on {Ns=n} the event-clock history gives Tn≤s<Tn+1; by the exponential memoryless identity P(Wn+1−(s−Tn)>u∣Wn+1>s−Tn)=e−qu, the residual time after s is rate-q exponential independent of that history. The later waiting times are independent rate-q exponentials as well. Repeating the calculation in step 3.2 shows that, conditional on the clock history up to s, Ns+h−Ns has probabilities e−qh(qh)k/k!, independent of that history. The clock is independent of Y by step 2.1 and the uniformized convention [F1].

5.1F1F5step 2.1step 4.1algebra

Let Hs=(Y0,…,YNs) be the finite embedded-state prefix and put Gs=σ(Nu:0≤u≤s,Hs). Since Nu≤Ns for u≤s, the construction filtration Fs=σ(Nu,Xu:0≤u≤s) is contained in Gs. Given Gs and Xs=i, k further clock events have probability e−qh(qh)k/k! by step 4.1, and the embedded chain has k-step transition matrix Rk. Hence P(Xs+h=j∣Gs)=∑k=0∞e−qh(qh)kk!(Rk)ij=(e−qheqhR)ij=(ehL)ij, since q(R−I)=L. This conditional law depends on Gs only through Xs; [F5] applied to the integrable indicator 1{Xs+h=j} and Fs⊆Gs gives the required identity for all s≤t. The matrix series converges absolutely because E is finite.

6.1givenF1step 3.1step 5.1∎

The constructed X is adapted to Ft by definition. Step 3.1 gives nonexplosion and càdlàg paths; step 5.1 gives its all-pairs conditional transition matrices. Thus it is a uniformized realization for every finite rate matrix, including reducible matrices and states with λi=0.

LemmaStatement: AI-adaptedProof: AI-adaptedprecheck passverified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)Open item page →

Martingale and predictable bracket for a finite-state chain

Statement

Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let E be finite and nonempty, let L be a rate matrix on E, let X be its uniformized realization from the preceding existence result, and let f:E→R be bounded. Put g=Lf and Mt=f(Xt)−f(X0)−∫0tg(Xs) ds,Γf(i)=L(f2)(i)−2f(i)Lf(i). For every finite T, (Mt)0≤t≤T is a square-integrable martingale relative to the construction filtration, and At:=∫0tΓf(Xs) ds is its continuous predictable bracket: A0=0, A is increasing and predictable, and Mt2−At is a martingale. The bracket is understood in the continuous predictable increasing compensator convention stated in the proof.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The finite-state rate matrix, the uniformized process, a bounded real function f, a finite horizon T, and the Axiom of Choice.

[A1]

Assume the Axiom of Choice. The all-pairs continuous-time martingale and conditional-expectation interfaces below carry this assumption (The Axiom of Choice).

[F1]

Finite-state generator chain: with λi=∑j≠iLij and q=max⁡iλi, if q=0 then L=0 and X is constant; if q>0, set R=I+L/q and take an R-Markov sequence Y and mutually independent rate-q exponential waiting times independent of the entire sequence Y, with Nt counting their arrivals and Xt=YNt. Uniformization constructs every finite-state rate matrix chain: X is adapted and has all-pairs conditional transition matrices ehL; when q>0, its proof also shows that N has independent rate-q Poisson increments and is independent of Y.

[F2]

Continuous-time adapted processes and martingales: a martingale is adapted, meaning Mt is Ft-measurable at every time, is integrable, and satisfies E[Mt∣Fs]=Ms almost surely for every s≤t; square-integrability requires EMt2<∞ at every time.

[F3]

Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation: conditional expectation is linear, preserves order and constants, and satisfies ∣E[Z∣G]∣≤E[∣Z∣∣G] for integrable Z.

[F4]

Progressively measurable and predictable processes: predictability is measurability for the sigma-algebra generated by (u,v]×A with A∈Fu and by time-zero sets.

[F5]

Fubini's theorem for L^1 functions on a sigma-finite product: for bounded jointly measurable functions on [0,T]×Ω, the time and probability integrals may be interchanged.

[F6]

A continuous finite-variation martingale is constant: a continuous martingale starting at zero with integrable finite total variation on [0,T] is indistinguishably zero.

[F7]

Taking out what is known: if Z is integrable and H is bounded and G-measurable, then E[HZ∣G]=HE[Z∣G].

[F8]

Tower property of conditional expectation: for H⊆G and integrable Z, E[E[Z∣G]∣H]=E[Z∣H]. All these conditional-expectation interfaces assume AC.

Proof

If q=max⁡iλi=0, then L=0 and the uniformized process is constant by [F1]. Thus g=0, Γf=0, and M=A=0. If B is any other bracket in the stated class, then B−A is a continuous martingale starting at zero with total variation bounded by the integrable random variable BT+AT; [F6] gives B=A indistinguishably. Hence the conclusion holds when q=0. For the remainder of the proof assume q>0.

1.1A1F1F2F3F5constructalgebra

Fix t>0 and a bounded function a:E→R. On [0,t], approximate a(Xu) by the process with value a(Xkt/2n) on ((k−1)t/2n,kt/2n], 1≤k≤2n, and value a(X0) at zero. Each approximation is B([0,t])⊗Ft-measurable by adaptedness of X in [F1], and converges pointwise by right continuity. The construction uses constant paths on its exceptional explosion event, so this argument applies there too. Its time integral is the Ft-measurable sum (t/2n)∑k=12na(Xkt/2n). These sums converge to ∫0ta(Xu) du: on a path with J jumps, the error is at most 2∥a∥∞Jt/2n, since only intervals containing a jump contribute. Thus the time integral is Ft-measurable, without completing the filtration. Taking a=g proves that M is adapted, also at t=0. By [F1], E[g(Xs+r)∣Fs]=(erLg)(Xs). The joint measurability just proved and boundedness allow [F5] on finite time intervals. Testing against each event in Fs gives E ⁣[∫ss+hg(Xu) du|Fs]=∫0h(erLLf)(Xs) dr=(ehLf−f)(Xs), where the last equality follows by termwise differentiation of the absolutely convergent finite-matrix exponential series. Also E[f(Xs+h)∣Fs]=(ehLf)(Xs). Subtracting and using adaptedness proves E[Ms+h∣Fs]=Ms for every s,h. On [0,T], ∣Mt∣≤2∥f∥∞+T∥Lf∥∞, so every Mt is square-integrable and [F2] gives the all-pairs martingale assertion.

2.1F1F4step 1.1constructalgebra

Since ∑jLij=0, Γf(i)=∑jLij(f(j)−f(i))2=∑j≠iLij(f(j)−f(i))2≥0. Thus A is increasing and bounded on [0,T]. The integral argument of step 1.1 with a=Γf proves that A is adapted. Also ∣At−As∣≤∥Γf∥∞∣t−s∣, so A is continuous. For T>0 and each n, the step process equal to AkT/2n on (kT/2n,(k+1)T/2n] and zero at time zero is predictable by [F4]; these processes converge pointwise to A by continuity. Therefore A is predictable; on the horizon T=0 the assertion is immediate from A0=0.

3.1A1F1step 1.1step 2.1algebra

Fix u and condition on Fu, writing Xu=i. For 0<h≤1, the number of uniformization events during (u,u+h] is Poisson with rate q=max⁡iλi by the exponential-clock construction in [F1]. If there is no event, ΔM:=Mu+h−Mu=−hg(i), whose square is O(h2). If there is exactly one event and the new state is j≠i, its probability is e−qhqhRij=e−qhhLij=hLij+O(h2), and ΔM=f(j)−f(i)+O(h) uniformly because the drift integral has magnitude at most h∥g∥∞. Its contribution to the conditional second moment is therefore hLij(f(j)−f(i))2+O(h2). A one-event self-transition contributes O(h3). The probability of at least two events is O(h2) and ΔM is uniformly bounded for h≤1, so its contribution is O(h2). Since E is finite, all error bounds are uniform in i, and E[(ΔM)2∣Fu]=hΓf(i)+O(h2). Also P(Xu+r≠i∣Fu)≤qr, so boundedness of Γf gives E ⁣[∫uu+hΓf(Xv) dv|Fu]=hΓf(i)+O(h2). Consequently ∣E[(ΔM)2−∫uu+hΓf(Xv) dv∣Fu]∣≤Ch2 for a finite constant C depending only on L,f,T.

4.1A1F2F3F7F8step 1.1step 3.1

Let Dt=Mt2−At. On any interval [u,u+h], Du+h−Du=2MuΔM+(ΔM)2−∫uu+hΓf(Xv) dv. On [0,T], Mu is bounded and Fu-measurable by step 1.1, so [F7] and the mean-zero increment give E[2MuΔM∣Fu]=2MuE[ΔM∣Fu]=0, while step 3.1 bounds the conditional expectation of the remaining terms by Ch2. For fixed s<t, divide [s,t] into n equal intervals of length h=(t−s)/n≤1. For the subdivision times u, Fs⊆Fu and every increment of D is integrable. Thus [F8], linearity and order in [F3], and the preceding bound imply ∣E[Dt−Ds∣Fs]∣≤nCh2=C(t−s)2/n. Letting n→∞ proves E[Dt∣Fs]=Ds. Thus M2−A is a martingale.

5.1A1F4F6step 2.1step 4.1∎

In this item, a continuous predictable bracket means a continuous predictable increasing process B with B0=0, EBT<∞, and M2−B a martingale. Steps 2.1 and 4.1 show that A has these properties. If B is another such process, then B−A is a continuous martingale starting at zero, and its total variation on [0,T] is at most BT+AT, which is integrable. By [F6], B−A is indistinguishably zero. Therefore A is the unique bracket in this stated continuous predictable compensator class, and it has the displayed formula.

5 · Examples, experiments and counterexamples

None yet.

Sources