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Predictably weighted bounded martingale differences have a convergent series
Statement
Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let be a discrete filtered probability space. Let be a real martingale-difference sequence relative to the filtration, with almost surely for a finite constant . For each , let be a real -measurable random variable. Suppose that a finite deterministic satisfies
Then the partial sums converge almost surely to a finite real limit.
Statement references
Facts & Assumptions
Given: The Axiom of Choice, the filtered probability space, the bounded martingale differences, the predictable coefficients, and the almost-sure square-sum bound in the Statement.
The Axiom of Choice: every family of nonempty sets has a choice function; this is assumed for the conditional-expectation classes in the martingale-difference definition.
Filtration and filtered probability space: whenever .
Martingale difference sequence: each is -measurable and integrable, and almost surely; conditional expectations are almost-sure classes under AC.
Martingale submartingale and supermartingale: an integrable adapted process is a submartingale when almost surely.
Tower property of conditional expectation: if and is integrable, then almost surely.
Taking out what is known: an integrable factor measurable with respect to the conditioning sigma-algebra can be taken outside conditional expectation when the products are integrable.
Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation: conditional expectation is linear, order preserving, and expectation preserving.
Probability measures and probability spaces and Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable: , and a nonnegative integrable constant has expectation equal to that constant.
Sequential suprema, infima, limsup, liminf, and pointwise limits of measurable functions are measurable: a pointwise limit of measurable functions is measurable.
Dominated convergence: pointwise convergence under one integrable majorant permits convergence of expectations.
Continuity from below for measures: for increasing measurable events, the measure of their union is the limit of their measures.
Finite and countable subadditivity of measures: the measure of a countable union is at most the sum of the measures.
The reals are complete: every Cauchy sequence of real numbers converges in .
The well-ordering principle: every nonempty subset of the natural numbers has a least element.
Proof
Given: In addition to the hypotheses in the Statement, all conditional-expectation identities are interpreted almost surely.
Put . The square-sum bound implies almost surely, so is square integrable. Since is -measurable, [F2] and [F5] give . For , [F1] gives , and [F4] gives . Taking out the bounded -measurable factor with [F5], then using expectation preservation [F6], gives . Expanding a finite square therefore yields
Let . By [F8], is measurable; the hypothesis gives and almost surely. The constant is integrable by [F7], so [F9] gives .
For finite , put for , with . Each is adapted and integrable; [F2] and [F6] give , so is a martingale. Since is -measurable, [F5] takes it out of the conditional expectation; the MDS identity from step 1.1 gives . The conditional square expansion therefore gives so is a nonnegative submartingale by [F3]. Let be the event that is the first index in with . These events are disjoint and . Repeated use of the submartingale inequality and [F4] gives , hence Summing over and using gives
Since , for each integer choose the least (with ) such that ; it exists by [F13]. For finite , step 2.1 with bounds the event by . These events increase with , so [F10] gives the same bound for their union over all . For each , [F11] gives , which tends to zero; hence almost surely only finitely many occur. Outside that null event, for every sufficiently large and all with , the tail sum satisfies . Thus the partial sums are Cauchy.
Completeness [F12] makes the Cauchy sequence of partial sums converge in . Since , this is the asserted convergence of .
Depends on
- The Axiom of Choice
- Filtration and filtered probability space
- Martingale difference sequence
- Martingale submartingale and supermartingale
- Tower property of conditional expectation
- Taking out what is known
- Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation
- Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable
- Probability measures and probability spaces
- Dominated convergence
- Sequential suprema, infima, limsup, liminf, and pointwise limits of measurable functions are measurable
- Continuity from below for measures
- Finite and countable subadditivity of measures
- The reals are complete
- The well-ordering principle
Used by
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Sources
- John N. Tsitsiklis, Asynchronous Stochastic Approximation and Q-Learning (standard reference, not scraped)