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Predictably weighted bounded martingale differences have a convergent series

Statement

Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let (Ω,F,(Fn)n≥0,P) be a discrete filtered probability space. Let (Dn)n≥1 be a real martingale-difference sequence relative to the filtration, with ∣Dn∣≤C almost surely for a finite constant C≥0. For each n≥1, let Bn be a real Fn−1-measurable random variable. Suppose that a finite deterministic K≥0 satisfies

∑n=1∞Bn2≤Kalmost surely.

Then the partial sums ∑n=1NBnDn converge almost surely to a finite real limit.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The Axiom of Choice, the filtered probability space, the bounded martingale differences, the predictable coefficients, and the almost-sure square-sum bound in the Statement.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: every family of nonempty sets has a choice function; this is assumed for the conditional-expectation classes in the martingale-difference definition.

[F1]

Filtration and filtered probability space: Fi⊆Fj whenever i≤j.

[F2]

Martingale difference sequence: each Dn is Fn-measurable and integrable, and E[Dn∣Fn−1]=0 almost surely; conditional expectations are almost-sure classes under AC.

[F3]

Martingale submartingale and supermartingale: an integrable adapted process Xn is a submartingale when E[Xn+1∣Fn]≥Xn almost surely.

[F4]

Tower property of conditional expectation: if H⊆G and X is integrable, then E[E[X∣G]∣H]=E[X∣H] almost surely.

[F5]

Taking out what is known: an integrable factor measurable with respect to the conditioning sigma-algebra can be taken outside conditional expectation when the products are integrable.

[F6]

Basic algebra and order properties of conditional expectation: conditional expectation is linear, order preserving, and expectation preserving.

[F7]

Probability measures and probability spaces and Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable: P(Ω)=1, and a nonnegative integrable constant has expectation equal to that constant.

[F9]

Dominated convergence: pointwise convergence under one integrable majorant permits convergence of expectations.

[F10]

Continuity from below for measures: for increasing measurable events, the measure of their union is the limit of their measures.

[F11]

Finite and countable subadditivity of measures: the measure of a countable union is at most the sum of the measures.

[F12]

The reals are complete: every Cauchy sequence of real numbers converges in R.

[F13]

The well-ordering principle: every nonempty subset of the natural numbers has a least element.

Proof

Given: In addition to the hypotheses in the Statement, all conditional-expectation identities are interpreted almost surely.

1.1givenA1F1F2F4F5F6algebra

Put Yn=BnDn. The square-sum bound implies ∣Bn∣≤K almost surely, so Yn is square integrable. Since Bn is Fn−1-measurable, [F2] and [F5] give E[Yn∣Fn−1]=0. For i<j, [F1] gives Fi⊆Fj−1, and [F4] gives E[Yj∣Fi]=0. Taking out the bounded Fi-measurable factor Yi with [F5], then using expectation preservation [F6], gives E[YiYj]=0. Expanding a finite square therefore yields E ⁣[(∑n=NmYn)2]=∑n=NmE[Yn2]≤C2E ⁣[∑n=NmBn2].

1.2givenF7F8F9

Let RN=∑n=N∞Bn2. By [F8], RN is measurable; the hypothesis gives 0≤RN≤K and RN↓0 almost surely. The constant K is integrable by [F7], so [F9] gives E[RN]→0.

2.1givenF1F2F3F4F5F6step 1.1step 1.2algebra

For finite m≥N, put Sj=∑n=NjYn for N≤j≤m, with SN−1=0. Each Sj is adapted and integrable; [F2] and [F6] give E[Sj+1∣Fj]=Sj+E[Yj+1∣Fj]=Sj, so (Sj) is a martingale. Since Sj is Fj-measurable, [F5] takes it out of the conditional expectation; the MDS identity from step 1.1 gives E[2SjYj+1∣Fj]=2SjE[Yj+1∣Fj]=0. The conditional square expansion therefore gives E[Sj+12∣Fj]=Sj2+E[Yj+12∣Fj]≥Sj2, so (Sj2) is a nonnegative submartingale by [F3]. Let Aj be the event that j is the first index in [N,m] with ∣Sj∣≥ε. These events are disjoint and Aj∈Fj. Repeated use of the submartingale inequality and [F4] gives E[Sm2∣Fj]≥Sj2, hence E[1AjSm2]≥E[1AjSj2]≥ε2P(Aj). Summing over j and using Sm2≥0 gives P ⁣(max⁡N≤j≤m∣Sj∣≥ε)≤E[Sm2]ε2≤C2E[RN]ε2.

3.1step 1.2step 2.1F10F11F13algebra

Since C2E[RN]→0, for each integer r≥1 choose the least Nr>Nr−1 (with N0=0) such that C2E[RNr]≤2−4r; it exists by [F13]. For finite m≥Nr, step 2.1 with ε=2−r bounds the event max⁡Nr≤j≤m∣∑n=NrjYn∣≥2−r by 2−2r. These events increase with m, so [F10] gives the same bound for their union Ar over all m. For each R, [F11] gives P(⋃r≥RAr)≤∑r≥R2−2r, which tends to zero; hence almost surely only finitely many Ar occur. Outside that null event, for every sufficiently large r and all p≤q with p,q≥Nr, the tail sum satisfies ∣∑n=pqYn∣≤21−r. Thus the partial sums are Cauchy.

4.1step 3.1F12algebra∎

Completeness [F12] makes the Cauchy sequence of partial sums converge in R. Since Yn=BnDn, this is the asserted convergence of ∑n≥1BnDn.

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