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A nonconstant centered integrable IID random walk is unbounded above

Statement

Let (Xn)n≥1 be IID real random variables with E∣X1∣<∞, EX1=0, and P(X1=0)<1. Put S0=0 and Sn=∑i=1nXi. Then P(sup⁡n≥0Sn=+∞)=1. In particular, lim sup⁡n→∞Sn=+∞ almost surely.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: The IID sequence, integrability, centering, and nondegeneracy in the statement.

[F1]

IID means mutual independence and identical laws. Identical distribution and IID families

[F2]

A tail event for an independent sequence has probability zero or one. Kolmogorov zero-one law

[F3]

Sigma-algebras generated by disjoint groups of independent coordinates are independent. Disjoint groups of an independent sigma-algebra family remain independent

[F4]

Dominated convergence permits passage through expectation under an integrable majorant. Dominated convergence

[F5]

A characteristic function is continuous and equals one at zero. Basic properties of characteristic functions

[F6]

The characteristic function of a sum of independent real variables is the product of their characteristic functions. Characteristic functions under affine maps and independent sums

[F7]

Expectations are linear for integrable real variables. The Lebesgue integral is linear on L1(μ)

[F8]

A nonnegative measurable function with integral zero vanishes almost everywhere. A nonnegative measurable function has integral 0 exactly when it vanishes almost everywhere

Proof

1.1givenF1F2

Let M=sup⁡n≥0Sn, a measurable [0,+∞]-valued random variable. For each m≥1, removing the first m increments changes later partial sums only by the finite number Sm, and the removed partial sums form a finite set. Consequently {M=+∞}={sup⁡k≥0∑i=m+1m+kXi=+∞} belongs to σ(Xm+1,Xm+2,…). It is a tail event, so its probability is zero or one.

2.1step 1.1F1F3

Suppose its probability were zero. Then M is finite almost surely. Define M′=sup⁡k≥0∑i=2k+1Xi, which is also finite almost surely and has the same law as M: for every real b, the event that the supremum is at most b is the decreasing intersection of the corresponding finite-prefix events, whose probabilities agree by the IID hypothesis. The variable M′ is independent of X1 by independence of their coordinate sigma-algebras. Decomposing the supremum according to whether the empty partial sum is used gives M=max⁡(0,X1+M′) almost surely. On null exceptional sets replace M and M′ by zero if needed, without changing their laws or these almost-sure assertions.

3.1step 2.1F4F7

Put A=max⁡(0,M′+X1) and B=M′, so A and B are finite nonnegative variables with the same law. The map u↦max⁡(0,u) is one-Lipschitz and B≥0, hence ∣A−B∣≤∣X1∣. For each positive integer K, equality in law gives E[min⁡(A,K)−min⁡(B,K)]=0. The difference converges almost surely to A−B and has absolute value at most ∣A−B∣≤∣X1∣. Dominated convergence therefore yields E(A−B)=0, without requiring either A or B to have finite expectation.

4.1step 2.1step 3.1F6F7F8given

The identity A−B=X1+R, where R=(−B−X1)+ and u+=max⁡(u,0), gives 0≤R≤∣X1∣. Centering and step 3.1 imply ER=0, so R=0 almost surely. Thus B+X1=A almost surely and B+X1 has the same law as B. Independence now gives φB(t)φX1(t)=φB(t) for every real t.

5.1step 4.1F5F8given

Continuity and φB(0)=1 supply δ>0 such that φB(t)≠0 for ∣t∣<δ. Step 4.1 then gives φX1(t)=1 on this interval. Choose a positive integer q with 1/q<δ. For every integer k≥q, taking real parts gives E[1−cos⁡(X1/k)]=0, so cos⁡(X1/k)=1 almost surely. Intersecting these countably many probability-one events, fix a resulting value x of X1. If x≠0, some k≥q has 0<∣x∣/k<2π, contradicting cos⁡(x/k)=1. Therefore X1=0 almost surely, contrary to the hypothesis.

6.1step 1.1step 5.1∎

The zero-probability alternative in step 1.1 is impossible, so M=+∞ almost surely. Each finite prefix has finite maximum, and hence removing it preserves an infinite supremum. Thus the limsup of the partial sums is also +∞ almost surely.

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