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The same-marginal conditional-product law is well-defined

Statement

Assume AC. Let X,Y,Z be random elements with standard-Borel value spaces, and let K(z,⋅) and L(z,⋅) be supplied conditional laws of X and Y given Z=z. The product kernels M(z,⋅)=K(z,⋅)⊗L(z,⋅) form a probability kernel. The joint law R(C×A×B)=∫CK(z,A)L(z,B) PZ(dz) exists uniquely on the product sigma-algebra and does not depend on the chosen versions of K,L. It has Z marginal PZ and conditional law M for (X,Y) given Z.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, standard-Borel random elements X,Y,Z, and regular conditional laws K,L given Z.

[A1]

AC supplies the existence and simultaneous almost-everywhere uniqueness interfaces for standard-Borel regular conditional laws. The Axiom of Choice

[F1]

The product of two supplied probability kernels is a probability kernel, with rectangle evaluations K(z,A)L(z,B). The product of two probability kernels is a probability kernel

[F2]

A probability measure and a probability kernel define a unique joint probability law with the iterated-integral formula. A prior and model kernel define a joint law

[F3]

Conditional laws of the same standard-Borel random element agree as measures outside one null set. Simultaneous ae uniqueness of regular conditional distributions

[F4]

Measurable rectangles generate the product sigma-algebra and determine a probability measure by the pi-lambda theorem. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates Dynkin's pi-lambda theorem

Proof

Given: The hypotheses in the Statement.

1.1A1F1F2given

By [F1], M(z,⋅)=K(z,⋅)⊗L(z,⋅) is a probability kernel into the standard-Borel product of the X and Y spaces. Apply [F2] with base law PZ and kernel M. It gives a unique probability law R and the displayed rectangle formula; taking A and B equal to their whole value spaces gives R(C×EX×EY)=PZ(C) for every measurable C, so its Z marginal is PZ. The same rectangle identity is the conditional-law identity for M given Z.

2.1A1F1F2F3F4step 1.1∎

Let K′,L′ be alternative versions. By [F3], there are P_Z-null sets NX,NY such that K(z,⋅)=K′(z,⋅) for z∉NX and L(z,⋅)=L′(z,⋅) for z∉NY. Their product measures agree for every z outside NX∪NY. Thus the two joint laws have the same rectangle values R(C×A×B) for every measurable C,A,B; [F4] then makes the laws equal. This establishes version independence.

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