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Finite-fourth-moment root-n consistency of sample-centered covariance

Statement

Fix p≥1 and a Borel probability law P on Rp with EP∥X∥24<∞, mean μ, and covariance matrix Σ. For each n≥1, let Xn,1,…,Xn,n be iid with law P; the probability space may depend on n. Put Xˉn:=1n∑i=1nXn,i,Σ^n∗:=1n∑i=1n(Xn,i−Xˉn)(Xn,i−Xˉn)T, the sample-centered covariance with divisor n from Sample covariance estimators and squared operator loss. For a matrix B, define ∥B∥F:=(∑j,k=1pBjk2)1/2. Then ∥Σ^n∗−Σ∥F=OP(n−1/2), meaning n∥Σ^n∗−Σ∥F=OP(1) in the bounded-in-probability sense of Stochastic order and convergence notation for finite-dimensional random vectors. No Gaussian assumption is needed.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A fixed finite p≥1, a law P on Rp with EP∥X∥24<∞, and for each n an iid sample of size n from P.

[F1]

Identical distribution and IID families: iid means identically distributed and mutually independent, not only pairwise independent.

[F2]

Measurable coordinatewise functions preserve independence: measurable coordinatewise functions of an independent family remain independent.

[F3]

Covariance matrix of a finite-dimensional random vector and Sample covariance estimators and squared operator loss: Σjk=E[(Xj−μj)(Xk−μk)] and Σ^n∗=n−1∑i(Xn,i−Xˉn)(Xn,i−Xˉn)T.

[F4]

Variance and covariance identities for random variables and Independence forces covariance to vanish: covariance is bilinear on finite sums, and independent square-integrable real random variables have zero covariance.

[F5]

Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation: expectation is linear for integrable variables.

[F6]

Markov's inequality for random variables: for nonnegative Z and a>0, P(Z≥a)≤E[Z]/a.

[F7]

Stochastic order and convergence notation for finite-dimensional random vectors: Zn=OP(1) means, using the Euclidean norm of its finite vectorization, that for every η>0 some M>0 satisfies lim sup⁡nP(∣Zn∣>M)≤η.

Proof

technique · direct
1.1F1F2F3F8givenalgebra

Since t2≤1+t4 for t≥0, the fourth-moment assumption gives E∥X∥22<∞. Then ∥X∥2≤1+∥X∥22 gives E∥X∥2<∞, so the coordinatewise mean μ is finite. Put Yn,i=Xn,i−μ and Mn=n−1∑iYn,iYn,iT. By [F8], ∥Yn,1∥2≤∥Xn,1∥2+∥μ∥2. For a,b≥0, 2ab≤a2+b2 gives (a+b)2≤2(a2+b2) and then (a+b)4≤4(a2+b2)2≤8(a4+b4). Hence E∥Yn,1∥24≤8(E∥X∥24+∥μ∥24)<∞. For each j,k, the variables Wn,ijk:=Yn,i,jYn,i,k−Σjk are centered and square-integrable because (Yn,i,jYn,i,k)2≤∥Yn,i∥24. The map y↦yjyk−Σjk is Borel, so [F1] and [F2] make (Wn,ijk)i=1n independent.

2.1F1F2F3F4F5F6step 1.1algebra

Let Yˉn=n−1∑iYn,i. By [F1] and [F2], the coordinate variables Yn,i,j are independent across i. Thus [F4] makes their cross-covariances zero, and [F4] and [F5] give E∥Yˉn∥22=tr⁡(Σ)/n. Also ∥YˉnYˉnT∥F=∥Yˉn∥22 by expanding both squares. For every C>0, [F6] therefore gives P(n∥YˉnYˉnT∥F>C)≤tr⁡(Σ)/(Cn)→0. Thus this centered-mean term converges to zero in probability.

2.2F1F2F3F4F6F7step 1.1algebra

For fixed j,k, all Wn,ijk are the same Borel function of the iid vectors Yn,i, so they are iid: their independence follows from [F1] and [F2], and equal laws follow because a measurable map sends equal input laws to equal output laws. Thus [F4] gives E[(Mn,jk−Σjk)2]=n−2∑iVar⁡(Wn,ijk)=n−1Var⁡(Wn,1jk). Since E[Yn,1,jYn,1,k]=Σjk, Var⁡(Wn,1jk)=E[Yn,1,j2Yn,1,k2]−Σjk2≤E[Yn,1,j2Yn,1,k2]. Summing over j,k and using ∑j,kYn,1,j2Yn,1,k2=∥Yn,1∥24 yields E∥Mn−Σ∥F2≤n−1E∥Yn,1∥24. Consequently [F6] gives, for every C>0, P(n∥Mn−Σ∥F>C)≤E∥Yn,1∥24/C2, so n∥Mn−Σ∥F=OP(1) by [F7].

3.1F3F7F8step 2.2step 2.1algebra∎

Expanding the centered sum in [F3] gives Σ^n∗=Mn−YˉnYˉnT. For a matrix B, let vec⁡(B)∈Rp2 list its entries; by the definition of the Frobenius norm, ∥vec⁡(B)∥2=∥B∥F. Applying [F8] to these vectors gives ∥B+C∥F≤∥B∥F+∥C∥F, including the triangle inequality used below. For any η>0, choose C1 so the limsup tail of n∥Mn−Σ∥F above C1 is at most η/2 by step 2.2. For all sufficiently large n, the probability that n∥YˉnYˉnT∥F>1 is at most η/2 by step 2.1. The displayed Frobenius triangle inequality then bounds the limsup probability that n∥Σ^n∗−Σ∥F>C1+1 by η. This is n∥Σ^n∗−Σ∥F=OP(1) by [F7], which is the claimed root-n rate.

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