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Gibbs sampling, exact coupling and finite-error certificates — Examples

1 · Prerequisites

2 · Summary

3 · Logical flowchart

4 · Definitions, postulates, theorems and proofs

None yet.

5 · Examples, experiments and counterexamples

ExampleConstruction: AI-generatedVerification: AI-generatedprecheck passverified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)Open item page →

A finite Metropolis chain can equilibrate within a well and remain far from equilibrium

Example

Assume AC. Fix β>0 in reciprocal-energy units and a finite barrier height B>0 in the corresponding energy unit, so βB is dimensionless; put ϵ=e−βB∈(0,1), and let the five states be Ω={L0,L1,H,R0,R1}. Equip Ω with the discrete metric ρ(x,y)=1{x≠y}, whose Borel sigma-algebra is 2Ω:={A:A⊆Ω}; the target and proposal are defined on the measurable carrier (Ω,2Ω). The energies are E(L0)=E(L1)=E(R0)=E(R1)=0 and E(H)=B, so the Gibbs law is π(x)=e−βE(x)/(4+ϵ). Let Q be the symmetric proposal matrix specified by Q(Li,Li)=Q(Ri,Ri)=12,Q(Li,L1−i)=Q(Ri,R1−i)=14,Q(Li,H)=Q(Ri,H)=14(i=0,1), and Q(H,x)=1/4 for x∈{L0,L1,R0,R1}, with all other entries zero. Each row sums to one. Apply the Metropolis–Hastings procedure with target π and proposal Q, and denote its transition matrix by P. Write L={L0,L1} for the left well and, for each t∈Z≥0, define d(t)=max⁡x∈Ω∥Pt(x,⋅)−π∥TV,∥μ−ν∥TV=12∑x∈Ω∣μ(x)−ν(x)∣. The Gibbs law is invariant, but the chain started with law π(⋅∣L) has probability (1−ϵ/4)t of making no exit from L during its first t steps. Conditional on no exit, its two-state within-well transition flips between L0 and L1 with probability 1/(4−ϵ); the conditional stationary law within the well is uniform, and from either state its within-well total-variation error after t such updates is at most 12((2−ϵ)/(4−ϵ))t≤2−t−1. Nevertheless, d(t)≥(1−ϵ/4)t−24+ϵ≥14for every integer 0≤t≤⌊ϵ−1⌋. Thus the conventional worst-start mixing time tmix(1/8):=min⁡{t∈Z≥0:d(t)≤1/8} exceeds ⌊eβB⌋, even though the chain can equilibrate quickly within one well. This is an exact finite mathematical example; it reports no simulated or measured data.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: β>0 in reciprocal-energy units, B>0 in the corresponding energy unit, the finite discrete state space Ω, the target π, and proposal matrix Q from the Example.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: AC is assumed, as required by the imported general-state Metropolis–Hastings suppliers.

[F1]

Standard Borel spaces: a measurable space is standard Borel when it is measurably bijective to a Polish space's Borel measurable space.

[F2]

Polish spaces are separable completely metrizable spaces: a topological space is Polish when it is separable and its topology is induced by a complete metric.

[F3]

Probability measures and probability spaces: a probability measure has total mass one.

[F4]

Measure kernel and probability kernel: a probability kernel is a measurable family of probability measures, with mass one at every source state.

[F5]

Metropolis–Hastings kernel: on a standard Borel space with target probability π and proposal probability kernel Q, the procedure accepts the common part of the forward and reversed proposal flows and retains rejected mass as a self-transition.

[F6]

Metropolis–Hastings flow is reversible and invariant: under the algorithm's hypotheses, its output is a probability kernel and π is invariant; the supplier asserts no irreducibility, uniqueness, convergence-rate, or mixing-time conclusion.

[F7]

Invariant and stationary distribution for a Markov kernel: invariance means πP=π, or on this finite space π(y)=∑xπ(x)P(x,y) for every y.

Verification

Given: AC, the finite target and symmetric proposal, and the imported Metropolis–Hastings algorithm and invariance result.

1.1A1F1F2F3F4F5algebra

The finite discrete metric on Ω is complete and separable, so [F2] makes it Polish; the identity map then verifies [F1]. The weights sum to 4+ϵ, so π is a probability measure by [F3]. Each row of Q is nonnegative and sums to one, and on a finite discrete space every function is measurable; thus [F4] makes Q a probability kernel. Consequently the inputs satisfy [F5].

2.1F1F5step 1.1algebra

For states x,y with Q(x,y)>0, the forward proposal-flow mass is μ(x,y)=π(x)Q(x,y) and the reversed mass is μT(x,y)=π(y)Q(y,x). On a finite set the greatest measure dominated by both has point mass min⁡{μ(x,y),μT(x,y)}, so [F5] accepts with probability min⁡{1,π(y)Q(y,x)/(π(x)Q(x,y))}. Symmetry of Q reduces this to min⁡{1,e−β(E(y)−E(x))}. Hence each Li and Ri jumps to its partner with probability 1/4, jumps to H with probability ϵ/4, and stays put with probability 3/4−ϵ/4; from H it jumps to each of the four well states with probability 1/4.

3.1F6F7step 2.1algebra

By [F6] and [F7], π is invariant for P. Also P4(x,y)>0 for all x,y: every state reaches L0 in at most two positive-probability transitions, L0 reaches every state in at most two, and any unused steps can be filled by the positive self-transition at L0. Since Ω is finite, let κ=min⁡x,yP4(x,y)>0, N=∣Ω∣=5, and λ=Nκ∈(0,1]. If λ<1, each row of P4 is λ times the uniform law plus 1−λ times a probability row. For Δ=μ−ν with total mass zero, its positive and negative parts each have mass ∥μ−ν∥TV; since every residual row assigns a number in [0,1] to an event, integration against Δ is bounded in absolute value by ∥μ−ν∥TV. Thus for every two laws μ,ν, ∥μP4−νP4∥TV≤(1−λ)∥μ−ν∥TV. If λ=1, all rows are uniform. Therefore π is the unique invariant law and the chain converges to it.

3.2step 2.1algebra

The target assigns equal mass 1/(4+ϵ) to L0,L1, so π(⋅∣L) is uniform and π(L)=2/(4+ϵ). From either state in L, the exit probability to H is ϵ/4, while the transition to the other state of L has probability 1/4. Conditioning a step on no exit gives flip probability (1/4)/(1−ϵ/4)=1/(4−ϵ) and stay probability (3−ϵ)/(4−ϵ). This symmetric two-state chain preserves the uniform law and has nonconstant eigenvalue (2−ϵ)/(4−ϵ)≤1/2, giving the stated within-well total-variation bound. The exit probability is constant across both states, so survival for t steps has probability (1−ϵ/4)t.

4.1F3F7step 3.2algebra∎

Survival implies Xt∈L, so for the initial law π(⋅∣L), Pr⁡(Xt∈L)≥(1−ϵ/4)t. On a finite space, if Δ=μ−ν has total mass zero then sup⁡A∣Δ(A)∣=12∑x∣Δ(x)∣, so the event L gives ∥π(⋅∣L)Pt−π∥TV≥(1−ϵ/4)t−π(L). For any mixture of starting states, the half-ℓ1 triangle inequality bounds its distance from π by the largest component distance. Since π(⋅∣L)Pt is the mixture of Pt(L0,⋅) and Pt(L1,⋅) with weights 1/2, it follows that d(t)≥(1−ϵ/4)t−2/(4+ϵ). If t≤⌊ϵ−1⌋, Bernoulli's inequality gives (1−ϵ/4)t≥1−tϵ/4≥3/4, while 2/(4+ϵ)<1/2; hence d(t)≥1/4>1/8. The definition of tmix(1/8) therefore gives the claimed lower bound.

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