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The likelihood-ratio score gradient is unbiased on fixed support

Statement

Gradients are Euclidean column vectors, and vector expectations are taken coordinatewise.

Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let Θ⊆Rd be open, fix θ0∈Θ, let ν be a fixed sigma-finite positive measure on a measurable space (X,A), and let pη be normalized densities of probability laws Pη relative to ν. Suppose there are an open ball U⊆Θ about θ0, a measurable set S∈A, and one ν-null set N such that, for every η∈U and every x∉N, pη(x)>0 exactly when x∈S, and η↦pη(x) is continuously differentiable. Assume the coordinate derivatives are measurable, let H:X→R be measurable, and suppose ∫∣H∣pη dν<∞ for each η∈U. Finally assume there is G∈L1(ν) such that ∣H(x)∣sup⁡η∈U∥∇ηpη(x)∥2≤G(x)for ν-almost every x. If also Eθ0 ⁣[H(X)2∥Sθ0(X)∥22]<∞, where Sθ0=∇θlog⁡pθ0 is the score of Score and Fisher information, then J(θ)=EθH(X) is Fréchet differentiable at θ0 and ∇J(θ0)=Eθ0[H(X)Sθ0(X)]. The score estimator is unbiased and has finite coordinate variances. The fixed-support hypothesis is a sufficient condition here.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, the fixed dominating measure and common support, the normalized density family, payoff H, differentiability and measurable derivatives, the common integrable envelope, and the weighted second-moment hypothesis.

[A1]

The Axiom of Choice: every family of nonempty sets has a choice function. AC is assumed by the canonical family of score representatives in [F1].

[F1]

Score and Fisher information: for a dominated differentiable density family, on {pθ>0} the score is Sθ=∇θlog⁡pθ; it is set to zero where pθ=0. The definition does not itself give a common exceptional null set, which is imposed separately in the Statement.

[F2]

Likelihood densities: each selected density pθ represents the law Pθ relative to the fixed dominating measure.

[F3]

The chain rule for total derivatives: D(g∘f)(a)=Dg(f(a))∘Df(a): differentiating t↦pθ0+th(x) gives Dθpθ0+th(x)[h]. Gradients are column vectors represented using the Euclidean inner product of The Euclidean inner product ⟨x,y⟩=∑k<nxkyk on Rn, so this is ⟨∇θpθ0+th(x),h⟩.

[F4]

The second fundamental theorem: if G is differentiable on [a,b] with G′=f and f is integrable, then ∫abf=G(b)−G(a) and A continuous function on [a,b] is Riemann integrable, by Heine-Cantor and Riemann's criterion: a continuously differentiable scalar function on a compact interval has an integrable derivative and equals its initial value plus the integral of that derivative.

[F5]

Dominated convergence: almost-everywhere convergence dominated by one L1(ν) function permits passage of the limit through the ν-integral.

[F6]

Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space and Variance and covariance identities for random variables: a square-integrable real random variable has variance E[X2]−(EX)2≤E[X2].

[F8]

Expectation of a nonnegative or integrable random variable and Integrating against a density agrees with integrating the product: expectation of an integrable signed random variable is the difference of the expectations of its positive and negative parts, and each nonnegative part integrates against its density.

[F9]

The Lebesgue integral is linear on L1(μ): the Lebesgue integral is linear on integrable functions, including each coordinate of an integrable vector-valued integrand.

Proof

1.1givenF3F4F7

Fix nonzero h∈Rd with θ0+h∈U. For x∉N, [F3] and [F4] applied to t↦pθ0+th(x) give pθ0+h(x)−pθ0(x)=∫01⟨∇pθ0+th(x),h⟩ dt. With Rh(x):=H(x)(pθ0+h(x)−pθ0(x)−⟨∇θpθ0(x),h⟩), subtracting the derivative at t=0 and applying [F7] gives ∣Rh(x)∣∥h∥2≤∣H(x)∣sup⁡0≤t≤1∥∇pθ0+th(x)−∇pθ0(x)∥2.

2.1givenF5F8F9step 1.1algebra

The right side of step 1.1 has a measurable version: outside N, continuity in t makes its supremum equal to the supremum over rational t∈[0,1]; set it to zero on N. This weighted supremum is bounded almost everywhere by 2G(x) by the envelope in the Statement and tends to zero for ν-almost every x as h→0. Thus [F5] shows ∫∣Rh∣ dν/∥h∥2→0 along every sequence of nonzero h→0. The envelope makes each coordinate of H∇pθ0 integrable, and the hypotheses make Hpη integrable. By [F9], for h≠0, J(θ0+h)−J(θ0)−⟨∫XH∇pθ0 dν,h⟩=∫XRh dν. Therefore the Fréchet derivative is ∇J(θ0)=∫XH(x)∇pθ0(x) dν(x).

3.1A1F1F2F8step 2.1algebra

On the common support S, pθ0>0 and [F1] gives ∇pθ0=pθ0Sθ0. Off S, the density is identically zero on U, so its derivative is zero almost everywhere. For each coordinate put φj(x):=H(x)Sθ0,j(x). The weighted second-moment hypothesis makes φj square-integrable under Pθ0, hence integrable since 2∣φj∣≤1+φj2 on a probability space. Its positive and negative parts are measurable and nonnegative; by [F2] and [F8], Eθ0[φj]=Eθ0[φj+]−Eθ0[φj−]=∫φj+pθ0 dν−∫φj−pθ0 dν=∫φjpθ0 dν. This explicitly extends the nonnegative density rule to the signed integrand. Substitution in step 2.1 therefore gives ∇J(θ0)=Eθ0[H(X)Sθ0(X)].

4.1givenF6step 3.1∎

The weighted second-moment assumption makes each coordinate H(X)Sθ0,j(X) square-integrable. [F6] gives finite variance, while step 3.1 gives its expectation as the corresponding objective derivative.

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