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Stratification and allocation

1 · Prerequisites

2 · Summary

This page treats the population values as fixed and the sample selections as random under the design. A finite population is partitioned into nonempty strata; each stratum receives an independent SRSWOR sample, and its weighted sample mean contributes to the estimated total. The total is design-unbiased, and its variance is the sum of the within-stratum finite-population variance terms. A certainty stratum contributes zero without requiring its population variance. For continuous allocations with positive noncertainty variances, the fixed-size optimum is proportional to NhSh, while a fixed per-unit-cost budget gives weights NhSh/ch. These formulas optimize uncapped continuous relaxations; integer rounding, capacity or minimum-sample constraints, and zero-variance strata require separate treatment. The probability notation follows probability-spaces-random-variables-and-expectation.

3 · Logical flowchart

4 · Definitions, theorems and proofs

DefinitionDefinition: Literature-sourcedProof: Not applicablejudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

Stratified sampling designs and the stratified total estimator

Definition

Let (U,y) be a finite population as in Finite populations and sampling designs, and let U1,…,UH be a finite partition of U into nonempty strata. Write Nh=∣Uh∣ and N=∑h=1HNh. Choose integers 1≤nh≤Nh. In stratum h, draw Rh by SRSWOR of size nh as in Simple random sampling without replacement, independently across strata. Thus the joint probability of a tuple (r1,…,rH) is ∏h=1H(Nhnh)−1, and its sample in U is R=⋃h=1Hrh. This is the stratified SRSWOR design. The union map is one-to-one because the strata are disjoint; the support has ∏h(Nhnh) elements, so the displayed mass function sums to one.

The fixed mean in stratum h is yˉh=1Nh∑i∈Uhyi. For a noncertainty stratum (nh<Nh), necessarily Nh>1, and its finite- population variance is Sh2=1Nh−1∑i∈Uh(yi−yˉh)2. For every noncertainty stratum write Sh=Sh2 for its nonnegative population standard deviation. For a realized sample, set yˉh,R=1nh∑i∈Rhyi,T^st=∑h=1HNhyˉh,R. The quantity T^st is the stratified total estimator. When nh=Nh, the stratum is a certainty stratum and its contribution is the fixed total Nhyˉh; no Sh2 is needed for that term. The population values yi remain fixed: only the sample selections are random.

TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-adaptedprecheck passjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

Unbiasedness and variance of the stratified total estimator

Statement

Let (U,y) be a finite population with a partition and stratified SRSWOR design as in Stratified sampling designs and the stratified total estimator. Under the design probability Pd, the stratified total estimator satisfies Ed[T^st]=∑i∈Uyi. Its design variance is Var⁡d(T^st)=∑h:nh<NhNh2(1−nhNh)Sh2nh. Thus certainty strata contribute zero and require no within-stratum variance term.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A fixed finite population (U,y), a finite partition U=⨆h=1HUh, and independent within-stratum SRSWOR samples with 1≤nh≤Nh.

[F1]

Stratified sampling designs and the stratified total estimator: The joint design mass on stratum samples is the product of the uniform SRSWOR masses; T^st=∑hNhyˉh,R; and Sh2 is defined for noncertainty strata.

[F2]

Finite populations and sampling designs: Population values are fixed, the design is a finite probability mass function, the observed record contains selected labels and their values, and πi=Pd(i∈S) is the first-order inclusion probability.

[F3]

The Horvitz–Thompson total and mean are design-unbiased under positive inclusion probabilities: If every πi>0, then ∑i∈UIiyi/πi is design-unbiased for ∑i∈Uyi.

[F4]

SRSWOR inclusion covariance and sample-mean variance: For SRSWOR of n from a fixed population of size N>1, Var⁡d(yˉS)=(1−n/N)SU2/n; this includes n=1 and the census n=N.

[F5]

Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space: Variance is the expectation of the squared centered variable and covariance is the expectation of the product of centered variables.

[F6]

Variance of a finite sum as the sum of all variances and covariances: For a finite family of square-integrable variables on one probability space, the variance of their sum is the sum of all pairwise covariances, including diagonal terms.

Proof

1.1F1F2F3algebra

For i∈Uh, counting the nh-subsets containing i gives πi=(Nh−1nh−1)/(Nhnh)=nh/Nh>0. On observed record Oy(R)=(R,y∣R), the recorded values are yi by [F2], so the Horvitz–Thompson total is ∑h(Nh/nh)∑i∈Rhyi=T^st; [F3] gives Ed[T^st]=∑i∈Uyi.

1.2F1F4F5algebra

Put Zh=Nhyˉh,R. Each Zh has finite support and is square-integrable. If nh<Nh, then Nh>1 and [F4] gives Var⁡d(yˉh,R)=(1−nh/Nh)Sh2/nh; variance scaling from [F5] gives Var⁡d(Zh)=Nh2(1−nh/Nh)Sh2/nh. If nh=Nh, Zh=∑i∈Uhyi is constant with variance zero.

1.3F1F5algebra

For distinct strata h,k, write qg(rg)=(Ngng)−1. The product law in [F1] gives Ed[ZhZk]=(∑rhqh(rh)Zh(rh))(∑rkqk(rk)Zk(rk))∏g∉{h,k}∑rgqg(rg)=Ed[Zh]Ed[Zk], since each remaining mass sum is one. Thus [F5] gives Cov⁡d(Zh,Zk)=0.

2.1F6step 1.1step 1.2step 1.3algebra∎

Since T^st=∑hZh, [F6] and steps 1.2–1.3 give Var⁡d(T^st)=∑hVar⁡d(Zh). Substituting step 1.2's noncertainty and certainty cases yields the stated variance, and step 1.1 gives unbiasedness.

TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-adaptedprecheck passjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)Open item page →

Continuous fixed-size Neyman allocation minimizes stratified variance

Statement

Use the notation of Stratified sampling designs and the stratified total estimator and Unbiasedness and variance of the stratified total estimator. Let J be a nonempty set of noncertainty strata whose allocations vary, and suppose Sh>0 for each h∈J, where Sh:=Sh2 is the positive population standard deviation. Hold all other stratum allocations fixed. For real xh>0 with ∑h∈Jxh=n⋆>0, consider the uncapped continuous relaxation of the variance expression V0+∑h∈JNh2(1−xhNh)Sh2xh, where V0 collects the fixed strata's variance terms. Its unique minimum over this positive simplex is attained at xh=n⋆NhSh∑k∈JNkSk(h∈J). This is the continuous Neyman allocation. The relaxation imposes no integer, capacity, lower-bound, or minimum-sample constraints; if the displayed allocation violates a design constraint, it is not itself an admissible stratified SRSWOR design.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A stratified SRSWOR finite-population design; a nonempty set J of variable noncertainty strata with Sh>0; fixed allocations outside J; and a positive real budget n⋆ for J.

[F1]

Stratified sampling designs and the stratified total estimator: For a noncertainty stratum, Nh>1 and Sh2=(Nh−1)−1∑i∈Uh(yi−yˉh)2.

[F2]

Unbiasedness and variance of the stratified total estimator: A noncertainty stratum's variance contribution is Nh2(1−nh/Nh)Sh2/nh; certainty and fixed strata contribute terms that do not vary with xh.

Proof

1.1givenF1F2algebra

Put ah=NhSh>0. For h∈J, [F2]'s variable term with nh=xh is Nh2(1−xh/Nh)Sh2/xh=ah2/xh−NhSh2. The subtracted term is constant, so the relaxed objective is minimized by minimizing ∑h∈Jah2/xh subject to ∑h∈Jxh=n⋆.

2.1givenstep 1.1algebra

Set ph=ah/xh and qh=xh. Expanding and grouping unordered pairs gives (∑hph2)(∑hqh2)−(∑hphqh)2=∑h<k(ph2qk2+pk2qh2−2phpkqhqk)=∑h<k(phqk−pkqh)2≥0. Since ∑hqh2=n⋆ and ∑hphqh=∑hah, we get ∑hah2/xh≥(∑hah)2/n⋆, with equality exactly when ah/xh is constant over J.

3.1givenstep 1.1step 2.1algebra∎

Define xh⋆=n⋆ah/(∑k∈Jak). Positivity gives xh⋆>0, and summing gives ∑hxh⋆=n⋆. This allocation satisfies step 2.1's equality condition and attains its lower bound; the equality condition uniquely fixes this normalization. By step 1.1 it uniquely minimizes the relaxed variance.

TheoremStatement: Literature-sourcedProof: AI-adaptedprecheck passOpen item page →

Continuous cost-optimal stratified allocation

Statement

Use the notation of Stratified sampling designs and the stratified total estimator and Unbiasedness and variance of the stratified total estimator. Let J be a nonempty set of variable noncertainty strata with Sh>0, and hold all other allocations fixed. Assign each h∈J a positive per-unit cost ch. For a fixed positive residual cost budget C⋆, the uncapped continuous relaxation of the stratified variance expression, minimized over positive real allocations xh>0 for every h∈J subject to ∑h∈Jchxh=C⋆, has the unique minimizer xh=C⋆NhSh/ch∑k∈JNkSkck(h∈J). Thus xh∝NhSh/ch. As in the fixed-size result, this continuous formula does not enforce integer, capacity, lower-bound, or minimum-sample constraints.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: A finite stratified SRSWOR design, a nonempty set J of variable noncertainty strata with Sh>0, fixed allocations outside J, per-unit costs ch>0, and a positive residual cost budget C⋆.

[F1]

Stratified sampling designs and the stratified total estimator: For each noncertainty stratum, Sh2 is the finite-population variance and Sh=Sh2 denotes its nonnegative standard deviation. The hypothesis Sh>0 is imposed only for h∈J.

[F2]

Unbiasedness and variance of the stratified total estimator: The variable variance term for stratum h is Nh2(1−nh/Nh)Sh2/nh; contributions from fixed strata do not depend on the variable allocation.

Proof

1.1givenF1F2algebra

Put ah=NhSh>0. Replacing nh by xh in [F2] gives Nh2(1−xh/Nh)Sh2/xh=ah2/xh−NhSh2. The subtracted and fixed-stratum terms do not vary with x, so it suffices to minimize ∑h∈Jah2/xh subject to ∑h∈Jchxh=C⋆.

2.1givenstep 1.1algebra

Set ph=ah/xh and qh=chxh. Expanding and grouping unordered pairs gives (∑hph2)(∑hqh2)−(∑hphqh)2=∑h<k(ph2qk2+pk2qh2−2phpkqhqk)=∑h<k(phqk−pkqh)2≥0. Since ∑hqh2=C⋆ and ∑hphqh=∑hahch, the objective is at least (∑hahch)2/C⋆, with equality exactly when ah/(xhch) is constant.

3.1givenstep 1.1step 2.1algebra∎

The allocation xh⋆=C⋆(ah/ch)/(∑k∈Jakck) is positive and satisfies ∑hchxh⋆=C⋆. It makes ah/(xh⋆ch) constant and attains step 2.1's bound; the equality condition uniquely determines it. By step 1.1 it uniquely minimizes the relaxed variance and gives the stated formula.

5 · Examples, counterexamples and false statements

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