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A flat prior gives a proper known-variance normal-mean posterior
Example
Let , let the observed real values be , and let the known variance be , with . The parameter space is with Lebesgue measure . Equip the data space with the finite product of and the recursively defined product measure . For each parameter , define the one-observation law by the density relative to and take the -observation sampling law to be the product of these one-coordinate laws. Its likelihood density at is . Take the flat prior measure on . Writing , the evidence is finite and positive, and the fiberwise posterior has Lebesgue density Its restriction to Borel sets is the normal law .
Facts & Assumptions
The Axiom of Choice: the Axiom of Choice is assumed for the stated choice-dependent Lebesgue-measure, standard-normal, and change-of-variables suppliers.
Evidence normalizer and fiberwise posterior update: the fiberwise update divides the likelihood section times the prior measure by its evidence only on a finite positive fiber.
Fiberwise posterior propriety is equivalent to finite positive evidence: a finite positive evidence normalizer yields a probability after division by that normalizer.
Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite, and every metrically bounded subset of has finite outer measure: assuming countable choice, Lebesgue measure on is sigma-finite, and the boxes have measure and cover the space.
Measures are monotone: if are measurable, then .
The standard normal density has total mass one: under the Axiom of Choice, is positive and Borel measurable with .
AC implies DC implies countable choice: the Axiom of Choice implies the Axiom of Countable Choice.
A C^1 diffeomorphism satisfies the change-of-variables formula for nonnegative Lebesgue measurable functions: under countable choice, a diffeomorphism between open Euclidean sets obeys the change-of-variables formula for every nonnegative Lebesgue-measurable integrand.
The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates: the finite product sigma-algebra is defined recursively from measurable rectangles.
The product measure of two sigma-finite measure spaces: for sigma-finite factors, the product measure is defined by integrating section measures.
For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique: for sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, satisfies the rectangle formula, and is sigma-finite.
Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product: a nonnegative product-measurable function on a sigma-finite product has equal iterated and product integrals.
Continuous functions on Euclidean spaces are Borel measurable: under countable choice, a continuous map between finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces is Borel measurable.
The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space: is the sigma-algebra generated by the open subsets of .
Standard normal and normal laws: has density and for is the pushforward of by .
Assuming countable choice, every Borel subset of is Lebesgue measurable: under countable choice, every Borel subset of a Euclidean space is Lebesgue measurable.
The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure: the set function is a measure for every nonnegative measurable .
Probability measures and probability spaces: a probability measure is a measure of total mass one.
Given: The model and data in the Example, the Axiom of Choice, and Lebesgue measure on the indicated real spaces.
Verification
By [A1] and [F6], countable choice is available for [F3]. The boxes have finite measure and cover by [F3], so is sigma-finite. Since , [F4] gives for every , hence and the flat prior is improper.
Fix and set . This is a diffeomorphism of with inverse and . The formula for is continuous in , hence Borel by [F12] and Lebesgue measurable by [F15]. Since is also Lebesgue measurable by [F5, F15], [F7] gives . The set function is a measure by [F16], and its total mass one makes it a probability by [F17]. For a Borel , apply [F7] to and : since and [F14] defines as this affine pushforward. Thus each coordinate law has the stated density.
Put . Expanding and using gives . Hence . This is continuous in , hence Borel by [F12] and -measurable by [F15]; therefore its evidence integral is defined by [F1].
For , recursively form the finite product data measure on using [F8] and [F9]. Starting from the sigma-finite , [F10] ensures that each exists and is sigma-finite. The coordinate projections are measurable by [F8], so each pullback of is measurable by step 1.2; finite multiplication is continuous, making product-measurable. Step 1.2 gives . If , the recursive product definition and Tonelli [F11] give . Thus is a measure by [F16] and a probability by [F17]. For measurable rectangles , repeated Tonelli gives . The product measure theorem [F10], iterated over the finite factors, identifies as the product of the one-coordinate laws. Therefore these coordinates are independent and is their joint density.
Set , a diffeomorphism of with inverse and derivative . Since is nonnegative and Lebesgue measurable by [F5, F15], [F7] gives . Integrating the factorization in step 1.3 against the flat prior gives , which is strictly positive and finite for every finite data vector.
Dividing step 1.3 by the finite positive evidence in step 2.2 gives , the displayed Lebesgue density. Put ; is a diffeomorphism with inverse . For every Borel , [F14] defines as this pushforward; [F7] applied to , which is Lebesgue measurable by [F12, F13, F15], gives The update on the full Lebesgue sigma-algebra is a probability by [F2]. If were allowed, its empty-product likelihood would be and the evidence would be by step 1.1, so no normalized update would exist.
Depends on
- Evidence normalizer and fiberwise posterior update
- Fiberwise posterior propriety is equivalent to finite positive evidence
- The Axiom of Choice
- The Axiom of Countable Choice ($\mathrm{AC}_\omega$)
- AC implies DC implies countable choice
- Lebesgue measurable sets, the family $\mathcal{L}(\mathbb{R}^n)$, and the restricted set function $\lambda_n$
- Finite, sigma-finite, and semifinite measures
- Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite, and every metrically bounded subset of $\mathbb{R}^n$ has finite outer measure
- Measures are monotone
- Continuous functions on Euclidean spaces are Borel measurable
- The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space
- Assuming countable choice, every Borel subset of $\mathbb{R}^n$ is Lebesgue measurable
- The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
- The product measure of two sigma-finite measure spaces
- For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique
- Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product
- The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure
- Probability measures and probability spaces
- The standard normal density has total mass one
- Standard normal and normal laws
- A C^1 diffeomorphism satisfies the change-of-variables formula for nonnegative Lebesgue measurable functions
Used by
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Sources
- Gelman et al., Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed., §§2.5, 2.8 (standard reference, not scraped)