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ExampleConstruction: AI-generatedVerification: AI-adaptedPipeline-generatedjudge pass (gpt-6-luna)verified 2026-10-22 (gpt-6.1-sol)
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A proper Gaussian likelihood gives a proper posterior

Example

Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let X=R with its usual real Banach norm, let U=D={0,1} with the Borel subspace structure, and let the forward map be F(u)=u. Give the parameter the Borel probability μ0(A)=121{0∈A}+121{1∈A} for Borel A⊆R. Let the data space be R with its usual metric and Borel sigma-algebra. Conditional on u∈D, let the observation have law N(u,1), with Lebesgue density

L(u;y)=12πexp⁡ ⁣(−(y−u)22),

and likelihood potential Φ(u;y)=12(y−u)2+12log⁡(2π). For every y∈R,

Z(y)=12L(0;y)+12L(1;y)∈(0,∞),

and the normalized update on A⊆D is

Πy(A)=L(0;y)1{0∈A}+L(1;y)1{1∈A}L(0;y)+L(1;y).

This is a data-indexed posterior-kernel version for the prior-predictive model; its values on any measurable data-marginal-null set may be changed without changing the conditional-law identities.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC; X=R, U=D={0,1}, the identity forward map, the stated two-atom prior, the observation law N(u,1) and its displayed Lebesgue density, and its likelihood potential.

[A1]

AC is the assertion that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function. The Axiom of Choice

[F1]

Under AC, N(m,σ2) is the affine image of N(0,1) and for σ>0 has Lebesgue density 12πσ2e−(y−m)2/(2σ2). Standard normal and normal laws, A positive-variance normal law has its location-scale density

[F2]

AC implies countable choice. AC implies DC implies countable choice

[F4]

A proper Bayesian model has a probability prior and a parameter-measurable probability sampling kernel. Bayesian model as a prior and sampling kernel

[F5]

For the displayed common lower envelope and continuity assumptions, the evidence is finite and strictly positive, and the normalized fiberwise update is a probability. Function-space posterior propriety from a common lower envelope

[F6]

For a proper prior and a jointly measurable sampling density over a sigma-finite dominating measure, the data marginal has density m(y) and the filled normalized kernel is a conditional law. Bayes formula for dominated kernels

[F7]

Replacing a data-indexed conditional kernel on a measurable data-marginal-null set preserves its conditional identities. Conditional law given a random element

[F8]

A prior on a forward domain is a Borel probability on X with full measure on D. A Borel prior concentrated on a forward-map domain

[F9]

An inverse-problem forward map has metric parameter and data spaces, a nonempty admissible truth set U, and a map F:U→Y. Inverse-problem models and solution classes

[F10]

A probability kernel has probability sections at every parameter and measurable evaluations. Measure kernel and probability kernel

[F11]

Every real square is nonnegative and a≥−∣a∣ for every real a. Squares of nonzero elements are positive, Basic properties of the absolute value

[F12]

A nonnegative simple function has its simple integral, and that equals its nonnegative integral. The integral of a nonnegative simple function, The nonnegative integral agrees with the simple integral on simple functions

[F13]

Joint measurability uses the product sigma-algebra, and measurability is defined by measurable preimages. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates, A measurable function between measurable spaces

[F14]

At a fixed datum, evidence is the prior integral of the likelihood section and the normalized update is defined only at positive finite evidence. Misfit evidence and the potential posterior law

[F15]

The natural logarithm has domain (0,∞) and satisfies exp⁡(log⁡a)=a for every a>0 (The natural logarithm as the inverse of the exponential function).

[F16]

For all real s,t, exp⁡(s+t)=exp⁡(s)exp⁡(t) (The exponential addition formula exp⁡(x+y)=exp⁡(x)exp⁡(y)).

[F17]

In the complete ordered field R, every nonnegative real has a unique nonnegative square root (Square roots exist: a unique a≥0 with (a)2=a; the positives are {x2:x≠0}).

[F18]

For every real t, exp⁡(t)>0 and exp⁡(−t)=1/exp⁡(t) (The exponential is positive and satisfies exp⁡(−x)=1/exp⁡(x)).

Verification

Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the Statement.

1.1F8F9givenconstructalgebra

The set D=U={0,1} is Borel and nonempty. The function μ0(A)=121{0∈A}+121{1∈A} is countably additive: in a disjoint sequence of Borel sets each of the two points occurs at most once, so the sum of assigned masses equals the mass of the union. Also μ0(R)=1 and μ0(D)=1, making it a prior on the stated domain by [F8]. The identity F:D→R is measurable because every subset of finite D is Borel, and it satisfies the forward-map interface [F9].

1.2F15F16F17F18givenalgebra

For any u∈D and y∈R, put a:=2π; since log⁡a occurs in the real-valued potential, [F15] gives a>0. Put b:=12(y−u)2 and c:=12log⁡a. By [F15], exp⁡(2c)=a. By [F16], exp⁡(c)2=exp⁡(2c)=a; by [F18], exp⁡(c)>0. Thus uniqueness of the nonnegative square root [F17] gives exp⁡(c)=2π, and [F18] gives exp⁡(−c)=1/2π. Applying [F16] again, e−Φ(u;y)=exp⁡(−(b+c))=exp⁡(−b)exp⁡(−c)=12πexp⁡ ⁣(−(y−u)22)=L(u;y). The last expression is the displayed Gaussian density, so the likelihood and potential agree pointwise.

2.1A1F1F2F3F4F8F9F10F13step 1.1givenalgebra

By [A1] and [F1], each N(u,1) is a probability law with the displayed density; since D is finite, every evaluation u↦N(u,1)(B) is measurable, so [F10] gives a probability kernel. By [F2] and [F3], Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite. The potential and likelihood are jointly Borel: for each of the two u values their data sections are continuous, each singleton {u} is Borel in D, and each preimage of a Borel set is a finite union of rectangles {u}×Bu in B(D)⊗B(R) by [F13]. Thus [F4] gives a proper Bayesian model with the stated prior and sampling kernel.

3.1F5F8F11F12step 2.1givenalgebra

The finite subspace D={0,1} is discrete: the open balls of radius 1/2 about 0 and 1 isolate the two points, so every real-valued function on D is continuous. For every u∈D and y∈R, Φ(u;y) is finite. By [F11], (y−u)2≥0 and a≥−∣a∣ for a:=12log⁡(2π), so Φ(u;y)≥−C where C:=∣a∣≥0. The constant envelope M1(r)=C is Borel, and [F12] gives ∫DeM1(∥u∥) μ0(du)=eCμ0(D)=eC<∞. Applying [F5] with Y0=R proves 0<Z(y)<∞ and propriety of the normalized update for every datum.

4.1F12F14step 1.2step 3.1givenalgebra

By [F14], integrate the likelihood section against the prior. Step 1.2 gives L(u;y)=e−Φ(u;y) for both atoms, so this likelihood evidence equals ZΦ(y); using the two prior atoms gives Z(y)=12L(0;y)+12L(1;y). Step 3.1 gives 0<Z(y)<∞. Since D is finite, the likelihood section is simple, so [F12] gives the numerator for any A⊆D as 12L(0;y)1{0∈A}+12L(1;y)1{1∈A}. Dividing by Z(y) yields the stated posterior weights.

5.1F4F6F7step 2.1step 4.1∎

Apply [F6] with parameter u∈D, prior μ0, dominating measure Lebesgue, and the jointly Borel density L(u;y). Its evidence is exactly the Z(y) computed in step 4.1, so the displayed Πy is a data-indexed posterior-kernel version. By [F7], changing its values on a data-marginal-null set leaves the conditional identities unchanged.

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