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A proper Gaussian likelihood gives a proper posterior
Example
Assume the Axiom of Choice. Let with its usual real Banach norm, let with the Borel subspace structure, and let the forward map be . Give the parameter the Borel probability for Borel . Let the data space be with its usual metric and Borel sigma-algebra. Conditional on , let the observation have law , with Lebesgue density
and likelihood potential . For every ,
and the normalized update on is
This is a data-indexed posterior-kernel version for the prior-predictive model; its values on any measurable data-marginal-null set may be changed without changing the conditional-law identities.
Example references
The likelihood-potential evidence and its normalized fiberwise update.
A common lower envelope and continuity at a support point imply positive finite evidence.
A forward map is defined on an admissible truth set.
The prior is a Borel probability concentrated on the stated forward domain.
A proper Bayesian model consists of a probability prior and a probability sampling kernel.
A normal law has its location-scale density for positive variance.
Conditional-kernel values on a measurable data-marginal-null set may be changed.
Dashti and Stuart, §3.2 and §4.1, full lecture notes
Latz, §2.2, Theorem 2.5 and its proof in Appendix B (printed p. 23), full paper
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC; , , the identity forward map, the stated two-atom prior, the observation law and its displayed Lebesgue density, and its likelihood potential.
AC is the assertion that every family of nonempty sets has a choice function. The Axiom of Choice
Under AC, is the affine image of and for has Lebesgue density . Standard normal and normal laws, A positive-variance normal law has its location-scale density
AC implies countable choice. AC implies DC implies countable choice
Lebesgue measure on is sigma-finite under countable choice. Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite, and every metrically bounded subset of has finite outer measure
A proper Bayesian model has a probability prior and a parameter-measurable probability sampling kernel. Bayesian model as a prior and sampling kernel
For the displayed common lower envelope and continuity assumptions, the evidence is finite and strictly positive, and the normalized fiberwise update is a probability. Function-space posterior propriety from a common lower envelope
For a proper prior and a jointly measurable sampling density over a sigma-finite dominating measure, the data marginal has density and the filled normalized kernel is a conditional law. Bayes formula for dominated kernels
Replacing a data-indexed conditional kernel on a measurable data-marginal-null set preserves its conditional identities. Conditional law given a random element
A prior on a forward domain is a Borel probability on with full measure on . A Borel prior concentrated on a forward-map domain
An inverse-problem forward map has metric parameter and data spaces, a nonempty admissible truth set , and a map . Inverse-problem models and solution classes
A probability kernel has probability sections at every parameter and measurable evaluations. Measure kernel and probability kernel
Every real square is nonnegative and for every real . Squares of nonzero elements are positive, Basic properties of the absolute value
A nonnegative simple function has its simple integral, and that equals its nonnegative integral. The integral of a nonnegative simple function, The nonnegative integral agrees with the simple integral on simple functions
Joint measurability uses the product sigma-algebra, and measurability is defined by measurable preimages. The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates, A measurable function between measurable spaces
At a fixed datum, evidence is the prior integral of the likelihood section and the normalized update is defined only at positive finite evidence. Misfit evidence and the potential posterior law
The natural logarithm has domain and satisfies for every (The natural logarithm as the inverse of the exponential function).
For all real , (The exponential addition formula ).
In the complete ordered field , every nonnegative real has a unique nonnegative square root (Square roots exist: a unique with ; the positives are ).
For every real , and (The exponential is positive and satisfies ).
Verification
Given: The hypotheses and conventions in the Statement.
The set is Borel and nonempty. The function is countably additive: in a disjoint sequence of Borel sets each of the two points occurs at most once, so the sum of assigned masses equals the mass of the union. Also and , making it a prior on the stated domain by [F8]. The identity is measurable because every subset of finite is Borel, and it satisfies the forward-map interface [F9].
For any and , put ; since occurs in the real-valued potential, [F15] gives . Put and . By [F15], . By [F16], ; by [F18], . Thus uniqueness of the nonnegative square root [F17] gives , and [F18] gives . Applying [F16] again, . The last expression is the displayed Gaussian density, so the likelihood and potential agree pointwise.
By [A1] and [F1], each is a probability law with the displayed density; since is finite, every evaluation is measurable, so [F10] gives a probability kernel. By [F2] and [F3], Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite. The potential and likelihood are jointly Borel: for each of the two values their data sections are continuous, each singleton is Borel in , and each preimage of a Borel set is a finite union of rectangles in by [F13]. Thus [F4] gives a proper Bayesian model with the stated prior and sampling kernel.
The finite subspace is discrete: the open balls of radius about and isolate the two points, so every real-valued function on is continuous. For every and , is finite. By [F11], and for , so where . The constant envelope is Borel, and [F12] gives . Applying [F5] with proves and propriety of the normalized update for every datum.
By [F14], integrate the likelihood section against the prior. Step 1.2 gives for both atoms, so this likelihood evidence equals ; using the two prior atoms gives . Step 3.1 gives . Since is finite, the likelihood section is simple, so [F12] gives the numerator for any as . Dividing by yields the stated posterior weights.
Apply [F6] with parameter , prior , dominating measure Lebesgue, and the jointly Borel density . Its evidence is exactly the computed in step 4.1, so the displayed is a data-indexed posterior-kernel version. By [F7], changing its values on a data-marginal-null set leaves the conditional identities unchanged.
Depends on
- Misfit evidence and the potential posterior law
- Function-space posterior propriety from a common lower envelope
- Inverse-problem models and solution classes
- A Borel prior concentrated on a forward-map domain
- The product sigma-algebra and its finite iterates
- A measurable function between measurable spaces
- Bayesian model as a prior and sampling kernel
- Measure kernel and probability kernel
- The Axiom of Choice
- AC implies DC implies countable choice
- Standard normal and normal laws
- A positive-variance normal law has its location-scale density
- The natural logarithm as the inverse of the exponential function
- The exponential addition formula $\exp(x+y)=\exp(x)\exp(y)$
- Square roots exist: a unique $\sqrt{a} \ge 0$ with $(\sqrt{a})^2 = a$; the positives are $\{x^2 : x \neq 0\}$
- The exponential is positive and satisfies $\exp(-x)=1/\exp(x)$
- Lebesgue measurable sets, the family $\mathcal{L}(\mathbb{R}^n)$, and the restricted set function $\lambda_n$
- Finite, sigma-finite, and semifinite measures
- Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite, and every metrically bounded subset of $\mathbb{R}^n$ has finite outer measure
- Bayes formula for dominated kernels
- Bayesian posterior as a regular conditional law
- Conditional law given a random element
- Fiberwise posterior propriety is equivalent to finite positive evidence
- Squares of nonzero elements are positive
- Basic properties of the absolute value
- The integral of a nonnegative simple function
- The nonnegative integral agrees with the simple integral on simple functions
Used by
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Sources
- M. Dashti and A. M. Stuart, The Bayesian Approach to Inverse Problems (full lecture notes, arXiv:1302.6989) (standard reference, not scraped)
- J. Latz, On the Well-posedness of Bayesian Inverse Problems, SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification 8 (2020) (standard reference, not scraped)