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Bernstein inequality for bounded independent sums

Statement

Let n≥1 and let X1,…,Xn be independent centered square-integrable real random variables. Suppose b≥0 is finite and ∣Xi∣≤b almost surely for each i. Put v=∑i=1nVar⁡(Xi). For t>0, if v>0 then P(∣∑i=1nXi∣≥t)≤2exp⁡ ⁣(−t22(v+bt/3)), and if v=0 then this probability is 0.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: Independent centered square-integrable real random variables X1,…,Xn, a finite deterministic bound b≥0, and ∣Xi∣≤b almost surely.

[F1]

For centered Xi, Var⁡(Xi)=E[Xi2] (Moments, variance, and covariance on a probability space).

[F2]

For independent real random variables and nonnegative Borel functions gi, the expectation of their product factors as the product of their expectations (Expectations factor over finite products of independent random variables).

[F3]

If Y≥0 and r>0, then P(Y≥r)≤E[Y]/r (Markov's inequality for random variables).

[F4]

ex=∑k=0∞xk/k!, and this series converges absolutely for every real x (The real exponential function and the number e by a power series, The exponential series converges absolutely for every real argument).

[F6]

A nonnegative measurable function with integral 0 vanishes almost everywhere (A nonnegative measurable function has integral 0 exactly when it vanishes almost everywhere).

[F7]

The probability of a finite union of events is at most the sum of their probabilities (Basic identities for a probability measure).

[F8]

Independence means independence of the sigma-algebras generated by the random variables (Independent random elements).

[F9]

Expectation is linear, monotone, and bounded in modulus by the expectation of the absolute value (Linearity, monotonicity, and the modulus bound for expectation).

[F10]
[F11]

Finite sums of real-valued measurable functions are measurable (Arithmetic and lattice operations preserve measurability whenever they are defined).

Proof

1.1givenF1F6F11

Let vi=E[Xi2]. If v=0, then every vi=0 because vi≥0. By [F6], Xi2=0 almost surely for every i, so the finite sum is 0 almost surely and the stated tail probability is 0.

1.2givenF1F4F5F9F10algebraconstruct

Suppose v>0. If b=0, every Xi=0 almost surely and v=0, a contradiction; hence b>0. For each fixed real θ, gθ(x)=eθx is continuous: when θ≠0, continuity of x↦θx follows from ∣θx−θy∣=∣θ∣∣x−y∣, and continuity of its composition with ex follows from [F10]; when θ=0 it is constant. Thus gθ is Borel: the Borel sets whose inverse images under gθ are Borel form a sigma-algebra containing every open set, hence contain the sigma-algebra generated by opens (The Borel sigma-algebra of a topological space). For each Borel B, {gθ(Xi)∈B}=Xi−1(gθ−1(B)) is measurable. Now fix i and λ with 0<∣λ∣<3/b. For N≥2, the exponential series tail on [−b,b] is uniformly bounded by rN=∑k>N(∣λ∣b)k/k!→0. Each partial sum at Xi is integrable; the uniform bound and [F9] give ∣E[eλXi]−E[∑k=0N(λXi)k/k!]∣≤rN, so expectation passes to the series limit. Centering removes the linear term, and for every k≥2, ∣E[Xik]∣≤bk−2vi by [F1] and monotonicity. Also k!≥2⋅3k−2 for k≥2: equality holds at k=2,3, and each subsequent factorial factor is at least 3. Hence the geometric-series bound and 1+x≤ex from [F5] give EeλXi≤1+λ2vi/[2(1−∣λ∣b/3)]≤exp⁡(λ2vi/[2(1−∣λ∣b/3)]).

2.1F2F3F8F10F11step 1.2algebra

Let S=∑i=1nXi, a measurable real random variable by [F11]. By the addition formula [F10], eλS=∏ieλXi; independence [F8] and factorization [F2], applied to the nonnegative Borel functions established in step 1.2, give EeλS≤exp⁡(λ2v/[2(1−λb/3)]) for 0<λ<3/b. Since ex is positive and increasing [F10], S≥t implies eλS≥eλt>0, so [F3] and the reciprocal and addition formulas in [F10] give P(S≥t)≤exp⁡(−λt+λ2v/[2(1−λb/3)]). Choose λ=t/(v+bt/3); then λb/3<1 and direct simplification gives P(S≥t)≤exp⁡(−t2/[2(v+bt/3)]).

3.1F2F3F7F8F10F11step 1.2step 2.1algebra∎

For 0<λ<3/b, the bound in step 1.2 also holds at parameter −λ. By [F10], e−λS=∏ie−λXi; the original variables remain independent by [F8], and [F2] factors these nonnegative Borel functions, giving Ee−λS≤exp⁡(λ2v/[2(1−λb/3)]). Since S≤−t implies e−λS≥eλt>0, Markov [F3] and the same optimizing choice as in step 2.1 yield P(S≤−t)≤exp⁡(−t2/[2(v+bt/3)]). By [F7], the two one-sided bounds imply the displayed two-sided bound without asserting independence of the transformed variables −Xi.

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