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The Gaussian covariance likelihood ratio has its fixed-dimensional Wilks limit
Statement
Assume AC, fix , and use the iid multivariate-normal sample model with . Test against unrestricted , with unrestricted under both hypotheses and fixed . Let be the full-model Gaussian covariance MLE, and let be the null-over-full maximized likelihood ratio formed from the explicit Lebesgue Gaussian density. Almost surely, With fixed and the null true, as . The covariance null is interior in . This calibration is asymptotic; no finite-sample chi-square law is asserted.
Facts & Assumptions
Given: AC, fixed , , observations from the stated iid sample model, and under the null the true covariance is .
AC supplies the Gaussian construction and the countable-choice branch used by Borel measurability and the density/change-of-variables setup. The Axiom of Choice AC supplies countable selections and prescribed serial paths
The sample consists of independent vector observations with mean , covariance , and centered scatter ; . The iid multivariate-normal sample and covariance conventions
A multivariate normal vector is representable as with independent standard-normal coordinates. Multivariate normal law, including singular covariance
A standard-normal coordinate has Lebesgue density . Standard normal and normal laws
Independent coordinates have their product joint law; Tonelli integrates the nonnegative product density, and finite product Lebesgue measure agrees with Euclidean Lebesgue measure on Borel sets. Independent random elements Independent random elements have product joint law Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product On Borel subsets of R^{m+n}, the product lambda_m times lambda_n agrees with lambda_{m+n}
An invertible affine change of variables transforms a nonnegative Borel density by the absolute determinant Jacobian. Borel change of variables from the compact-support formula and Radon uniqueness
For , the centered Gaussian scatter is positive definite almost surely. Indeed, write with independent standard-normal columns and put . Complete to an orthogonal matrix . The map is orthogonal on the entries, so those entries remain independent standard normals. Centering gives with . Since , the rank lemma makes almost surely, and invertibility of gives the claim. Every finite-dimensional real or complex inner product space has an orthonormal basis Orthogonal transformations preserve the standard normal product law A standard-normal matrix with at least as many columns as rows has full row rank almost surely
An iid finite-dimensional vector with finite second moment obeys the multivariate iid central limit theorem. Multivariate iid central limit theorem
Convergence in distribution implies boundedness in probability; products of bounded-in-probability vectors are bounded in probability, a vanishing factor times a bounded factor vanishes in probability, and Slutsky and continuous mapping preserve the stated limits. Finite-dimensional stochastic-order calculus and tightness Stochastic order and convergence notation for finite-dimensional random vectors Vector Slutsky theorem Continuous mapping theorem
is the law of the sum of squares of independent standard-normal coordinates. Chi-square laws, including zero degrees
For nested hypotheses with existing maxima, the likelihood-ratio statistic is twice the full-minus-null maximized log likelihood. Wald, score, and likelihood-ratio statistics for regular nulls
Every real symmetric matrix has an orthonormal eigenbasis. Real spectral theorem: a self-adjoint endomorphism of a finite-dimensional real inner product space has an orthonormal eigenbasis
Every positive-semidefinite symmetric matrix has a positive-semidefinite square root; if it is positive definite, that root is invertible. A non-negative operator has a unique non-negative square root
A statistical experiment is dominated by a measure when every sampling law is absolutely continuous with respect to that common measure; Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite. Dominated statistical experiments Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite, and every metrically bounded subset of has finite outer measure
A likelihood density is a Radon–Nikodym density of the sampling law relative to the fixed dominating measure. Likelihood densities
Continuous Euclidean functions are Borel measurable. Continuous functions on Euclidean spaces are Borel measurable
Proof
By [F2] and [F3], one observation has density : the independent-coordinate product density follows from [F4], its continuous Gaussian formula is Borel by [F15], and the invertible affine map has determinant , so [F5] gives the displayed density. Independence in [F1] then makes the sample density its product over . The finite-dimensional Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite by [F13], so the product law is dominated by it and the displayed function is a likelihood density by [F14].
Under , the positive root is invertible by [F12], so define . By [F1]–[F2] these are iid . Write and . For a symmetric matrix, let list its upper-triangular entries in a fixed order; put . These vectors have mean zero and diagonal covariance: diagonal coordinates have variance , off-diagonal coordinates variance , and distinct coordinates have covariance zero. Indeed, independence and symmetry give zero for any product with an odd coordinate power; integration by parts against [F3]'s density gives and (using and vanishing polynomial-times-Gaussian boundary terms), while independence factors mixed even products. These finite moments make square-integrable, so [F7] yields with those diagonal variances. Also by [F7]–[F8], whence by [F8]. Thus converges in distribution to a symmetric Gaussian matrix whose entries on and above the diagonal are independent, with variances on the diagonal and off it.
Taking logarithms of that positive product density gives, up to the parameter-free constant , Expanding and using shows the quadratic sum equals . Since , this is minimized uniquely at for every fixed .
By [F6], almost surely. The square root exists by [F12] and is invertible because . At , compare the covariance log likelihood at any with its value at . Let . The trace and determinant identities give By [F11], the eigenvalues of are positive and the brace is , since for by differentiation and its unique minimum at . Equality holds precisely when all , hence and . Thus the unrestricted MLE is ; under the maximizing mean remains by step 2.1.
Substituting the unrestricted and null maxima into [F10], and using , yields Since , this is the asserted finite-sample identity.
Since by [F8], has Frobenius norm , where . On an event whose probability tends to one, every eigenvalue of the symmetric has . Taylor's theorem on gives with a uniform finite remainder constant there. Hence the statistic in step 4.1 equals because is fixed and .
The map is continuous, so [F8] and step 1.2 give convergence to . For the stated independent entries this is a sum of independent squared standard normals, which has law by [F9]. Step 5.1 and Slutsky [F8] prove the asserted limit. When , the off-diagonal sum is empty and the same count gives one degree of freedom; is fixed throughout, and no finite-sample calibration follows from this limit.
Depends on
- The iid multivariate-normal sample and covariance conventions
- A standard-normal matrix with at least as many columns as rows has full row rank almost surely
- Every finite-dimensional real or complex inner product space has an orthonormal basis
- Orthogonal transformations preserve the standard normal product law
- The Axiom of Choice
- Multivariate normal law, including singular covariance
- Standard normal and normal laws
- Independent random elements
- Independent random elements have product joint law
- Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product
- On Borel subsets of R^{m+n}, the product lambda_m times lambda_n agrees with lambda_{m+n}
- Borel change of variables from the compact-support formula and Radon uniqueness
- AC supplies countable selections and prescribed serial paths
- Dominated statistical experiments
- Likelihood densities
- Wald, score, and likelihood-ratio statistics for regular nulls
- Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite, and every metrically bounded subset of $\mathbb{R}^n$ has finite outer measure
- Real spectral theorem: a self-adjoint endomorphism of a finite-dimensional real inner product space has an orthonormal eigenbasis
- A non-negative operator has a unique non-negative square root
- Multivariate iid central limit theorem
- Continuous mapping theorem
- Vector Slutsky theorem
- Finite-dimensional stochastic-order calculus and tightness
- Stochastic order and convergence notation for finite-dimensional random vectors
- Chi-square laws, including zero degrees
- Continuous functions on Euclidean spaces are Borel measurable
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Sources
- Arak Mathai, Serge Provost, and Hans J. Haubold, Multivariate Statistical Analysis in the Real and Complex Domains, Chapter 3 §3.5, PDF pp. 55–62; Chapter 5 §5.5, PDF pp. 47–66 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Soumendu Sundar Mukherjee, Multivariate Analysis 2021, Lecture 7, PDF pp. 1–4 (standard reference, not scraped)
- Peter D. Hoff, Multivariate Statistical Analysis, Duke STA 832 lecture notes, relevant sections in Chapters 4 and 7 (standard reference, not scraped)