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The Gaussian covariance likelihood ratio has its fixed-dimensional Wilks limit

Statement

Assume AC, fix p≥1, and use the iid multivariate-normal sample model with n>p. Test H0:Σ=Σ0 against unrestricted Σ∈S++p, with μ∈Rp unrestricted under both hypotheses and fixed Σ0≻0. Let M=R/n be the full-model Gaussian covariance MLE, and let Λn be the null-over-full maximized likelihood ratio formed from the explicit Lebesgue Gaussian density. Almost surely, −2log⁡Λn=n[tr⁡(Σ0−1M)−log⁡det⁡(Σ0−1/2MΣ0−1/2)−p]. With p fixed and the null true, −2log⁡Λn⇒χp(p+1)/22 as n→∞. The covariance null is interior in S++p. This calibration is asymptotic; no finite-sample chi-square law is asserted.

Facts & Assumptions

Given: AC, fixed p≥1, n>p, observations from the stated iid sample model, and under the null the true covariance is Σ0≻0.

[A1]

AC supplies the Gaussian construction and the countable-choice branch used by Borel measurability and the density/change-of-variables setup. The Axiom of Choice AC supplies countable selections and prescribed serial paths

[F1]

The sample consists of independent vector observations with mean μ, covariance Σ, and centered scatter R=∑i(Xi−Xˉ)(Xi−Xˉ)T; M=R/n. The iid multivariate-normal sample and covariance conventions

[F2]

A multivariate normal vector is representable as μ+Σ1/2Z with independent standard-normal coordinates. Multivariate normal law, including singular covariance

[F3]

A standard-normal coordinate has Lebesgue density (2π)−1/2e−z2/2. Standard normal and normal laws

[F4]

Independent coordinates have their product joint law; Tonelli integrates the nonnegative product density, and finite product Lebesgue measure agrees with Euclidean Lebesgue measure on Borel sets. Independent random elements Independent random elements have product joint law Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product On Borel subsets of R^{m+n}, the product lambda_m times lambda_n agrees with lambda_{m+n}

[F5]

An invertible affine change of variables transforms a nonnegative Borel density by the absolute determinant Jacobian. Borel change of variables from the compact-support formula and Radon uniqueness

[F6]

For n>p, the centered Gaussian scatter R is positive definite almost surely. Indeed, write Xi=μ+Σ1/2Gi with independent standard-normal columns and put G=[G1∣⋯∣Gn]. Complete u=n−1/2(1,…,1)T to an orthogonal matrix U=[u∣u2∣⋯∣un]. The map G↦GU is orthogonal on the np entries, so those entries remain independent standard normals. Centering gives R=Σ1/2BBTΣ1/2 with B=[Gu2∣⋯∣Gun]. Since n−1≥p, the rank lemma makes BBT≻0 almost surely, and invertibility of Σ1/2 gives the claim. Every finite-dimensional real or complex inner product space has an orthonormal basis Orthogonal transformations preserve the standard normal product law A standard-normal matrix with at least as many columns as rows has full row rank almost surely

[F7]

An iid finite-dimensional vector with finite second moment obeys the multivariate iid central limit theorem. Multivariate iid central limit theorem

[F8]

Convergence in distribution implies boundedness in probability; products of bounded-in-probability vectors are bounded in probability, a vanishing factor times a bounded factor vanishes in probability, and Slutsky and continuous mapping preserve the stated limits. Finite-dimensional stochastic-order calculus and tightness Stochastic order and convergence notation for finite-dimensional random vectors Vector Slutsky theorem Continuous mapping theorem

[F9]

χk2 is the law of the sum of squares of k independent standard-normal coordinates. Chi-square laws, including zero degrees

[F10]

For nested hypotheses with existing maxima, the likelihood-ratio statistic is twice the full-minus-null maximized log likelihood. Wald, score, and likelihood-ratio statistics for regular nulls

[F12]

Every positive-semidefinite symmetric matrix has a positive-semidefinite square root; if it is positive definite, that root is invertible. A non-negative operator has a unique non-negative square root

[F13]

A statistical experiment is dominated by a measure when every sampling law is absolutely continuous with respect to that common measure; Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite. Dominated statistical experiments Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite, and every metrically bounded subset of Rn has finite outer measure

[F14]

A likelihood density is a Radon–Nikodym density of the sampling law relative to the fixed dominating measure. Likelihood densities

[F15]

Continuous Euclidean functions are Borel measurable. Continuous functions on Euclidean spaces are Borel measurable

Proof

1.1A1F1F2F3F4F5F13F14F15algebra

By [F2] and [F3], one observation has density ϕμ,Σ(x)=(2π)−p/2(det⁡Σ)−1/2exp⁡[−(x−μ)TΣ−1(x−μ)/2]: the independent-coordinate product density follows from [F4], its continuous Gaussian formula is Borel by [F15], and the invertible affine map z↦μ+Σ1/2z has determinant ∣det⁡Σ1/2∣=(det⁡Σ)1/2, so [F5] gives the displayed density. Independence in [F1] then makes the sample density its product over i=1,…,n. The finite-dimensional Lebesgue measure is sigma-finite by [F13], so the product law is dominated by it and the displayed function is a likelihood density by [F14].

1.2F1F2F3F7F8F12algebra

Under H0, the positive root Σ01/2 is invertible by [F12], so define Yi=Σ0−1/2(Xi−μ). By [F1]–[F2] these are iid Np(0,Ip). Write Cn=n−1∑iYiYiT and An=Σ0−1/2MΣ0−1/2=Cn−YˉYˉT. For a symmetric matrix, let vech⁡ list its upper-triangular entries in a fixed order; put Vi=vech⁡(YiYiT−Ip). These vectors have mean zero and diagonal covariance: diagonal coordinates have variance 2, off-diagonal coordinates variance 1, and distinct coordinates have covariance zero. Indeed, independence and symmetry give zero for any product with an odd coordinate power; integration by parts against [F3]'s density gives EZ2=1 and EZ4=3 (using ϕ′(z)=−zϕ(z) and vanishing polynomial-times-Gaussian boundary terms), while independence factors mixed even products. These finite moments make Vi square-integrable, so [F7] yields nvech⁡(Cn−Ip)⇒N(0,D) with those diagonal variances. Also nYˉ=OP(1) by [F7]–[F8], whence nYˉYˉT=n−1/2(nYˉ)(nYˉ)T=oP(1) by [F8]. Thus Hn=n(An−Ip) converges in distribution to a symmetric Gaussian matrix H whose entries on and above the diagonal are independent, with variances 2 on the diagonal and 1 off it.

2.1F1step 1.1algebra

Taking logarithms of that positive product density gives, up to the parameter-free constant −nplog⁡(2π)/2, ℓn(μ,Σ)=−n2log⁡det⁡Σ−12∑i=1n(Xi−μ)TΣ−1(Xi−μ). Expanding Xi−μ=(Xi−Xˉ)+(Xˉ−μ) and using ∑i(Xi−Xˉ)=0 shows the quadratic sum equals n(Xˉ−μ)TΣ−1(Xˉ−μ)+tr⁡(Σ−1R). Since Σ−1≻0, this is minimized uniquely at μ=Xˉ for every fixed Σ.

3.1F6F11F12step 2.1algebra

By [F6], M=R/n≻0 almost surely. The square root M1/2 exists by [F12] and is invertible because M≻0. At μ=Xˉ, compare the covariance log likelihood at any Σ≻0 with its value at M. Let B=M1/2Σ−1M1/2≻0. The trace and determinant identities give ℓn(Xˉ,Σ)−ℓn(Xˉ,M)=−n2{tr⁡B−log⁡det⁡B−p}. By [F11], the eigenvalues λ1,…,λp of B are positive and the brace is ∑j(λj−log⁡λj−1)≥0, since x−log⁡x−1≥0 for x>0 by differentiation and its unique minimum at 1. Equality holds precisely when all λj=1, hence B=I and Σ=M. Thus the unrestricted MLE is (Xˉ,M); under H0 the maximizing mean remains Xˉ by step 2.1.

4.1F10step 3.1algebra

Substituting the unrestricted and null maxima into [F10], and using R=nM, yields −2log⁡Λn=n{tr⁡(Σ0−1M)+log⁡det⁡Σ0−log⁡det⁡M−p}. Since det⁡(Σ0−1/2MΣ0−1/2)=det⁡M/det⁡Σ0, this is the asserted finite-sample identity.

5.1step 4.1step 1.2F8algebra

Since Hn=OP(1) by [F8], En=An−Ip=Hn/n has Frobenius norm ∥En∥F=OP(n−1/2), where ∥B∥F=(∑i,jBij2)1/2. On an event whose probability tends to one, every eigenvalue ej of the symmetric En has ∣ej∣≤1/2. Taylor's theorem on [−1/2,1/2] gives e−log⁡(1+e)=e2/2+O(∣e∣3) with a uniform finite remainder constant there. Hence the statistic in step 4.1 equals n∑j=1p(ej−log⁡(1+ej))=12tr⁡(Hn2)+OP(n∥En∥F3)=12tr⁡(Hn2)+oP(1), because p is fixed and n∥En∥F3=OP(n−1/2).

6.1F8F9step 1.2step 5.1algebra∎

The map H↦12tr⁡(H2) is continuous, so [F8] and step 1.2 give convergence to 12tr⁡(H2). For the stated independent entries this is ∑i=1p(Hii/2)2+∑1≤i<j≤pHij2, a sum of p+p(p−1)/2=p(p+1)/2 independent squared standard normals, which has law χp(p+1)/22 by [F9]. Step 5.1 and Slutsky [F8] prove the asserted limit. When p=1, the off-diagonal sum is empty and the same count gives one degree of freedom; p is fixed throughout, and no finite-sample calibration follows from this limit.

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