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Iid strong law fails at infinite absolute mean

Statement refuted

Assume AC. IID standard Cauchy variables have standard Cauchy sample means for every positive n. Their averages cannot converge in probability to a finite constant, and cannot converge almost surely to any finite random limit. Here the standard Cauchy law has CDF F(x)=1/2+arctan(x)/π.

Facts & Assumptions

ddxarctanx=11+x2,arctanx=0xdt1+t2.

For x<1,

arctanx=n=0(1)nx2n+12n+1.

At the endpoint, the ordinarily convergent alternating series satisfies

π4=113+1517+.

[F2]

Probability laws correspond to distribution functions: Assume the Axiom of Countable Choice.

  1. Let X be a real random variable, let PX be its law, and let FX(x)=P(Xx). Then FX is nondecreasing and right-continuous, satisfies limxFX(x)=0,limx+FX(x)=1, and obeys PX((a,b])=FX(b)FX(a)(a<b).
  2. Conversely, if F:RR is nondecreasing and right-continuous with limxF(x)=0,limx+F(x)=1, then there is a unique Borel probability measure μ on R such that μ((a,b])=F(b)F(a)(a<b), equivalently F(x)=μ((,x])(xR).
[F3]

The recursion theorem: Let (N,0,σ) be a Peano system (def-peano-system), in particular the natural numbers N (def-natural-numbers). For any set A, any element aA, and any function f:AA, there is a unique function g:NA such that g(0)=a and g(σ(n))=f(g(n)) for all nN.

[F4]

Countably many independent copies of a prescribed law exist: Assume countable choice and dependent choice. Every probability measure ν on (S,Σ) is the common law of a countable independent family of S-valued random elements.

[F5]

A continuous function on [a,b] is Riemann integrable, by Heine-Cantor and Riemann's criterion: Let a<b be reals and let f:[a,b]R be continuous on [a,b] (def-continuity-real). Then f is bounded (def-bounded-set) and Riemann integrable on [a,b] (def-darboux-integral).

The proof gives more than integrability: it gives a partition that works. For every real ε>0 the uniform partition into N parts already satisfies U(f,P)L(f,P)<ε, as soon as N is large enough that (ba)/N is below the δ that uniform continuity supplies for ε/(2(ba)). Uniform continuity is exactly what makes one δ serve all N subintervals at once, and it is the only place where the compactness of [a,b] is used.

[F6]

The second fundamental theorem: if G is differentiable on [a,b] with G=f and f is integrable, then abf=G(b)G(a): Let a<b be reals, let G:[a,b]R be differentiable at every point of [a,b] as a function on [a,b] (def-derivative; at a and b this is the one-sided derivative), let f:=G, and suppose f is integrable on [a,b] (def-darboux-integral). Then

abf  =  G(b)G(a).

Both hypotheses are needed and neither is removable. A function may be differentiable everywhere with G not integrable — then the left-hand side does not exist (an everywhere differentiable function with unbounded derivative) — and an integrable f need not be the derivative of anything (the sign function); both witnesses are on the companion page.

No continuity of f is assumed, which is what makes this the working form: the theorem evaluates abf for every integrable derivative, not only for continuous integrands.

[F7]

A bounded Riemann integrable function on a closed bounded interval is Lebesgue measurable and has the same integral: Assume the Axiom of Countable Choice. Let a<b and let f:[a,b]R be bounded and Riemann integrable. Then f is Lebesgue measurable on [a,b] and is integrable there, and its Lebesgue integral equals its Riemann integral: [a,b]fdλ1=abf(x)dx.

This is the point at which the completeness of Lebesgue measure is used essentially: the proof obtains a Borel function equal to f almost everywhere, and measurability of f itself is then a completeness statement.

[F8]

Monotone convergence for the integral: Let 0f1f2 be measurable and suppose fn(x)f(x) for every x. Then fndμfdμ.

[F9]

The indefinite integral of a nonnegative measurable function is a measure: Let f:X[0,+] be measurable and define νf(A):=Afdμ(AA). Then νf is a measure on (X,A).

[F10]

Measures agreeing on a generating pi-system are equal under an increasing finite-measure exhaustion from that pi-system: Let P be a π-system on X generating A, and let μ,ν be measures on (X,A) that agree on P. Suppose there is an increasing sequence (Pn) in P with

X=nPn,μ(Pn)=ν(Pn)<+(nN).

Then μ=ν on A.

[F11]

The natural logarithm has derivative 1/x and equals the integral from 1 to x of 1/t: For x>0, log is differentiable and log(x)=1x,logx=1xdtt.

[F12]

Order, continuity, range, and the product, quotient, and reciprocal laws for the natural logarithm: The function log:(0,)R is continuous and strictly increasing, is onto R, and satisfies, for x,y>0, log(xy)=logx+logy,log(x/y)=logxlogy,log(1/x)=logx. Also log1=0.

[F13]

Integrability is necessary for an iid finite mean strong law: If IID real (Xn) have Sn/n converging almost surely to a finite, possibly random, limit L, then EX1< and L=EX1 almost surely.

[F14]

Independent random elements have product joint law: Let n1, and let Xi:(Ω,F,P)(Si,Σi) for i<n be independent random elements. Define

X=(X0,,Xn1):Ωi<nSi.

Then X is a random element of (i<nSi,i<nΣi), and its law is the finite product of the marginal laws:

PX=i<nPXi.

[F15]

Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product: Let (X,A,μ) and (Y,B,ν) be σ-finite measure spaces, and let f:X×Y[0,] be product-measurable. Then xYfxdν and yXfydμ are measurable, and

X×Yfd(μ×ν)=X(Yfxdν)dμ=Y(Xfydμ)dν.

[F16]

The principal inverse tangent arctan:R(π/2,π/2): By lem-tangent-principal-branch-is-bijective, tangent restricts to a continuous strictly increasing bijection

tan:(π/2,π/2)R.

Its inverse is the principal inverse tangent

arctan:R(π/2,π/2).

Thus tan(arctany)=y for every real y, while arctan(tanx)=x precisely for x in the displayed principal interval. The inverse is continuous and strictly increasing by thm-continuous-inverse.

[F17]

A box in Rn with parameters aibi is Lebesgue measurable of measure i<n(biai), whichever of its faces are included: Let n1, assume the Axiom of Countable Choice (def-countable-choice), and let aibi be reals for i<n. Write

R:={xRn:ai<xi<bi for every i<n},R:=[a,b]={xRn:aixibi for every i<n}

(def-multidimensional-rectangle-and-volume). Then R is open and R is closed, so both are Borel and Lebesgue measurable, and every set R with RRR is Lebesgue measurable with

λn(R)  =  i<n(biai).

In particular this covers the four one-dimensional face conventions in each coordinate — the open box, the closed box [a,b], the half-open box B(a,b)=i<n(ai,bi] of def-half-open-box, and every mixture of them, in any combination of coordinates — and it gives measure 0 to all of them whenever ai=bi for some i<n. For a half-open box with infinite parameters the value is already λn(B)=vol(B) (thm-lebesgue-measure-is-a-complete-measure).

Counterexample

Given: The objects, hypotheses and definitions in the statement. Its conclusions are to be established below.

1.1

The inverse in F16 is increasing onto (π/2,π/2). Its limit at positive infinity is the supremum of that range, π/2: for each u<π/2 in the range, x>tanu implies arctanx>u. The analogous argument at negative infinity gives π/2. Inverse-tangent calculus F1 gives derivative 1/(1+x2)>0. Thus F is increasing, continuous and has limits 0 and 1. AC gives CC by restriction to any countable family of nonempty sets, so F2 constructs the law. For a serial relation, AC selects a successor map; F3 iterates it, giving DC and licensing the IID construction in F4.

F1F2F3F4F16
1.2

For a>0 set fa(x)=a/[π(a2+x2)]. Its primitive is arctan(x/a)/π. Continuous integrability F5, F6, and the CC-qualified compact comparison F7 therefore evaluate its Lebesgue integral on every compact interval. F8 and the primitive limits give total mass one. F9 makes this a measure; equality of finite-interval increments and F10 identify its CDF as 1/2+arctan(x/a)/π. In particular f1 is the standard density.

F5F6F7F8F9F10
1.3

For fixed real x and a,b>0 put q=x2+b2a2 and H=q2+4a2x2=(x2+(a+b)2)(x2+(ab)2). If H>0, multiplication by the two denominators verifies the identity 1(y2+a2)((yx)2+b2)=Ay+By2+a2+A(yx)+D(yx)2+b2, where A=2x/H, B=q/H, D=(x2+a2b2)/H. The cubic coefficient cancels; the quadratic and linear coefficients are zero; the constant is one.

givenalgebra
2.1

For R>0, F11 gives 20Rxf1(x)dx=log(1+R2)/π. This tends to infinity by F12. The compact comparison and nonnegative MCT in step 1.2 show EX1=. Consequently F13 excludes any finite almost-sure limit of the sample means.

F11F12F13step 1.2
2.2

For independent variables with densities fa and fb, F14 and F15 give, on an interval (u,v], probability fa(y)uyvyfb(z)dzdy. For fixed y, the affine substitution z=x-y on the finite interval is justified by the continuous primitive in step 1.2, and changes the inner integral to uvfb(xy)dx. Tonelli then gives interval probability uv(fafb)(x)dx. This defines a mass-one density measure; interval uniqueness extends the equality to all Borel sets.

F14F15step 1.2
3.1

A singleton is a degenerate closed box of length zero by F17. Integrate step 1.3 on [-R,R] using the logarithm and inverse-tangent primitives in step 1.2 and step 2.1. The logarithmic contribution is (A/2)log(((Rx)2+b2)/((R+x)2+b2)), which tends to zero, while the arctangent contributions tend to π(B/a+D/b). Since bq+a(x2+a2b2)=(a+b)(x2+(ab)2), the limit is π(a+b)/(ab(x2+(a+b)2)). Multiplying by ab/π^2 gives (fafb)(x)=fa+b(x). The only excluded case is a=b and x=0. A singleton is Lebesgue-null, so this almost-everywhere equality suffices for the density measures; no subtraction of divergent integrals was made.

step 1.3step 1.2step 2.1F17
4.1

Induction with step 2.2 and step 3.1 gives density fn for Sn. Its CDF at nx is 1/2+arctan(nx/n)/π=F(x), so Sn/n has density f1 for every n. For any finite c, this law gives P(Sn/nc>1)=1(arctan(c+1)arctan(c1))/π>0, independently of n, since the arctangent difference is strictly less than π. Thus convergence in probability to c fails. Step 2.1 supplies the stronger obstruction to finite random almost-sure limits.

step 2.2step 3.1

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