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Finite-window homogeneous Poisson construction and ordered event-time density
Statement
Let , , and let carry its subspace topology and Borel sigma-algebra. This space is Hausdorff as a subspace of ; rational intervals give a countable base; and each has a compact neighborhood for some . Let be Lebesgue measure restricted to . There exists a Poisson point process on with intensity measure . Its total count is finite almost surely, its event times have no ties almost surely, and for every integer the joint density of the ordered event times with respect to -dimensional Lebesgue measure on the ordered simplex is For , conditional on , the ordered event times have density . For the empty-pattern probability is .
Facts & Assumptions
Given: Countable Choice, , , and the Borel time interval with its usual topology.
Under Countable Choice, Borel sets are Lebesgue measurable; Lebesgue measure is complete and equals length on intervals and boxes. (The Axiom of Countable Choice (), Assuming countable choice, every Borel subset of is Lebesgue measurable, Assuming countable choice, is a sigma-algebra containing every elementary set and is a complete measure extending elementary volume, A box in with parameters is Lebesgue measurable of measure , whichever of its faces are included)
For finite , the scalar Poisson law has masses , these masses sum to one, and its mean is ; at it is concentrated at zero. (The scalar Poisson count law, Normalization, moments, and generating function of the Poisson count law)
Lebesgue measure of an interval is its length; every singleton has measure zero. (A box in with parameters is Lebesgue measurable of measure , whichever of its faces are included)
Finite products of probability measures exist, satisfy the rectangle product formula, and are unique among measures with that formula. (For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique)
A countable nonnegative weighted sum of measures is a measure. (Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures are measures)
A point process is Poisson with intensity when every finite pairwise-disjoint Borel family has independent Poisson counts with means . (Poisson and Cox point processes)
Each is a probability measure. (The Dirac set function at a point, A Dirac set function is a probability measure)
For a nonnegative product-measurable function, Tonelli permits iterated integration. (Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product)
A point process on a locally compact, second-countable Hausdorff Borel space is a measurable random locally finite counting measure, with measurability tested by its evaluation maps. (Random measures and locally finite point processes)
Proof
Put and let , a probability measure on by [A1] and [F2]. For each , use the finite product probability on ; for , is the singleton empty tuple with unit mass. Form the countable disjoint union with the sigma-algebra whose sections in each component are product-measurable. Put and define . [F1] gives ; [F4] makes a probability measure. On component , set . Every evaluation is measurable, and each realization has at most atoms, so it is locally finite. The space is locally compact, second countable, and Hausdorff by the displayed neighborhood and base checks; hence [F8] makes a point process.
Let be disjoint Borel subsets of , put , and set . Conditional on component , a count vector with sum occurs for coordinate assignments; each assignment has probability by [F3]. Multiplying by and summing over gives, for fixed , Here for zero-mass cells, and . The exponential series evaluates the sum, and . Thus the joint count mass factors into the independent Poisson masses with means ; [F5] makes a Poisson point process of intensity .
Conditional on component , the coordinate vector has density on . For each pair , the diagonal is Borel; its section in coordinate is a singleton and has Lebesgue measure zero by [F2], so [F7] gives product measure zero. The finite union of pairwise diagonals is null. Coordinate permutations preserve the product-uniform law: they preserve the rectangle formula in [F3], and uniqueness there extends that equality from rectangles to the product sigma-algebra. Thus the ordering regions have equal measure and partition the cube outside the diagonals. More precisely, for every Borel , the preimage of under the Borel sorting map, off the diagonals, is the disjoint union of the coordinate permutations of . Each has product-uniform probability , so sorting gives conditional density on the ordered simplex. Multiplying by gives joint density . The endpoint set where any coordinate equals has product measure zero because by [F2] and [F3]; thus the same density applies to the stated simplex with . For , the construction gives empty-pattern mass . Each component has tie probability zero, and their countable mixture also has tie probability zero. This proves the event-time density and simplicity claims.
Source notes
Rasmussen derives the homogeneous Poisson event-time likelihood as a special case of the conditional-intensity formula. Kass, Eden, and Brown derive the ordered event-time density from independent Poisson increments. The local construction and diagonal-null argument provide a finite-window existence and simplicity proof.
Depends on
- Random measures and locally finite point processes
- Poisson and Cox point processes
- The scalar Poisson count law
- Normalization, moments, and generating function of the Poisson count law
- Lebesgue measurable sets, the family $\mathcal{L}(\mathbb{R}^n)$, and the restricted set function $\lambda_n$
- The Axiom of Countable Choice ($\mathrm{AC}_\omega$)
- Assuming countable choice, $\mathcal{L}(\mathbb{R}^n)$ is a sigma-algebra containing every elementary set and $\lambda_n$ is a complete measure extending elementary volume
- A box in $\mathbb{R}^n$ with parameters $a_i\le b_i$ is Lebesgue measurable of measure $\prod_{i<n}(b_i-a_i)$, whichever of its faces are included
- Assuming countable choice, every Borel subset of $\mathbb{R}^n$ is Lebesgue measurable
- For sigma-finite factors, the product measure exists, has the rectangle formula, is sigma-finite, and is unique
- Tonelli's theorem for nonnegative measurable functions on a sigma-finite product
- Nonnegative scalar multiples and countable weighted sums of measures are measures
- The Dirac set function at a point
- A Dirac set function is a probability measure
Used by
- A finite-window Poisson process that terminates at time one Example
- Homogeneous Poisson likelihood and a Hawkes intensity specification Example
- Compensators, brackets, and jump-integral isometry for reaction counts Theorem
- Conditional-intensity inter-event law and point-pattern likelihood Theorem
- Dominating thinning has the prescribed reaction law Theorem
- Finite-state Gillespie and next-reaction methods have the specified CTMC law Theorem
- Strong invariance principle for geometrically ergodic chains Theorem
Dependency tree · two levels
81 results within two dependency steps of this one, each drawn at its shortest distance from it. An arrow runs from a result to what uses it, so the chart reads left to right and ends at this result, which carries a heavier outline. Every node is a link to that result. Click elsewhere on the chart to enlarge it.
Sources
- Joseph G. Rasmussen, Lecture Notes: Temporal Point Processes and the Conditional Intensity Function (standard reference, not scraped)
- Robert E. Kass, Uri T. Eden, and Emery N. Brown, Analysis of Neural Data, Chapter 19: Point Processes (standard reference, not scraped)